Comments on: The Case to Trade Starlin Castro http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/ Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site Sat, 16 Feb 2019 21:04:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 By: Chris http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-108 Thu, 16 Apr 2015 04:37:59 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-108 This article assumes current salary levels for shortstops stay the same. I don’t think that is true. Especially with the big TV money deals. Therefore, I think it’s possible Castro’s contract is even more team friendly down the road than it is now.

]]> By: jefflamb http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-93 Wed, 15 Apr 2015 16:33:47 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-93 Point taken. I should not have used “league average” when I meant to say replacement level. My mistake. Thanks.

]]> By: DGBlumberg http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-91 Wed, 15 Apr 2015 15:51:46 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-91 I need to kinda rain on the parade of this article. Look, I’d love to believe that every single prospect in the system will work out. Given historical evidence though, we know this isn’t likely to happen the way we’d like it to. All the arguments for trading Castro are simply bad ones. Castro is a very good SS who provides above average offensive value and at least average defensive value. Even if he had to move off of SS to accommodate Russell, this would be easy to do. As things stand now, there’s a glaring hole at 2B just waiting to be filled and many have speculated that Castro might be able to play better 2B defense than Baez, La Stella, or even Alcantara. Until one of the infielders vying for 2B proves themselves at the major league level, I see no practical argument here and even then, it would be very practical to hang on to such a good, young, cost-controlled player.

Let’s not be the Diamondbacks. Let’s not make this Justin Upton redux.

]]> By: Joey Hainaut http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-86 Wed, 15 Apr 2015 02:07:03 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-86 Average is not replacement level. Replacement level is 20% below average, or somewhere thereabouts depending on the system.

With exceptions, in general, AAA players are not average MLB players. That is why replacement level is defined as below average.

]]> By: jefflamb http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-77 Tue, 14 Apr 2015 19:02:51 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-77 Actually, I was referring only to his defense here, but I can see why there is confusion.
I meant that depending upon the specific statistical set used in evaluation, his defense is either slightly above or slightly below a replacement value player.
When considering his offensive production, he is well above replacement level overall.
Hope this makes sense.

]]> By: Norm http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-76 Tue, 14 Apr 2015 18:45:50 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-76 I think that’s saying:
His defense is replacement level
But combined with his offense, that makes him either slightly better or slightly worse than a league average SS.

]]> By: tomshipley75 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-74 Tue, 14 Apr 2015 18:36:09 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-74 This year’s trade deadline will be interesting. In my view, the best case scenario for 2016 would be to trade Castro for a young, mid-rotation arm (plus another piece or two) and let Russell cut his teeth in the majors for half a season.

Then in the offseason, pick up another #1 type via free agency that would give the Cubs Lester, Arrieta, FA #1, Hammell, Castro-Trade Arm and Hendricks.

Resign Fowler while Almora develops. And Coughlin holds down left for McKinney or Schwarber.

Then Baez, Alcantara or LaStella will man 2B.

That makes the most sense for 2016. Problem is, if Cubs are in the playoff hunt, can they justify trading Castro at the deadline?

]]> By: sheeks50 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-73 Tue, 14 Apr 2015 18:33:07 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-73 “There are flaws to Castro’s game, without question. His defense is basically replacement-level. Depending on the exact metrics one uses, there is a case to be made that he is either slightly better or slightly worse than league average at the position.”

If he is league average defensively as a SS, wouldn’t that make him above replacement level?

]]> By: Jamie Paul http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-71 Tue, 14 Apr 2015 18:26:57 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-71 One thing apparently not taken into consideration when determining the future value of Starlin’s contract is inflation. The average salary of all MLB players increased by about $500,000 in 2014 from 2013’s average of $3.39MM, or 13%(http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/12/26/7448921/mlb-average-salary-3-8-million-free-agent-signings-analysis).

Were that trend to continue, a $1MM bump in Castro’s salary would represent an annual decline in AAV in real terms for the second half of his deal. In this scenario, his performance would not need to increase (though I believe it will) to maintain surplus value.

]]> By: jefflamb http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-case-to-trade-starlin-castro/#comment-67 Tue, 14 Apr 2015 14:52:24 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=213#comment-67 I will preface my response by saying that I am not a scout… I am a quant who is a baseball fan. Therefore, I need to rely on the subjective opinion of professional scouts who have watched Russell progess.

That being said, the consensus seems to be that Russell is the superior athlete and the more natural shortstop, and if Castro and Russell are on the field together, Russell will be playing shortstop.

I can see a scanario that I like that has Russell at SS, Castro at 3B, and Baez at 2B. Bryant in LF. I think it still comes down to value, though. The Cubs could net a significant piece in trade while saving $48 million over 5 years. That money could be invested in a front line starting pitcher while still having a dynamic player at every position. Not all prospects will succeed, so it is a gamble.

Thanks for reading.

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