Photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): This was a fairly frustrating game for the Cubs, who dropped the second game in a three-game series with the Marlins in Miami. You don’t have to be a statistician or an analytics genius to figure out what the top play in this game was if you watched it from beginning to end. Kyle Hendricks was cruising along with a 2-1 lead, but then the top of the fifth inning happened.
Opposing pitcher Brad Hand led off the bottom half of the inning by lining a single to left field, followed by an error by third baseman Jonathon Herrera while attempting to field a bunt by Dee Gordon. After walking Martin Prado to load the bases with nobody out, Giancarlo Stanton stepped in. After falling behind Stanton 2-1, Hendricks pumped a strike on the inside corner to even the count. Hendricks then went to his changeup, throwing one low and away to get Stanton swinging.
Striking out the best hitter on the Marlins felt like a potentially huge moment in the game, especially when Justin Bour popped out to Starlin Castro for the second out of the inning. But there was barely enough time to take a sigh of relief before Marcell Ozuna was lining the very next pitch into the gap in right-center for a three-run double (.380).
That ran the score to 4-2, and a Stanton solo home run in the seventh off Zac Rosscup made it 5-2, which was the final score of the game.
Bottom Play (WPA): While it may not have mattered in the end, the most frustrating moment came in the top of the ninth inning and the Cubs putting on a classic #fakerally. Castro began the inning with a single to left, followed by a walk to Addison Russell. After Matt Szczur struck out swinging, Chris Coghlan came up representing the tying run with only one out.
Coghlan grounded a ball into right field for a base hit, with third base coach Gary Jones throwing up the stop sign for fear of running Castro into an out with the Cubs down by three runs. Unfortunately, Russell didn’t pick up Castro or the third base coach, and rounded second base a little too aggressively. He slipped as he attempted to turn and scramble back, and by the time he could right himself it was too late.
Adeiny Hechavarria placed the tag on Russell, who was officially thrown out attempting to take third base (-.064). Not often do you see a player get a base hit with two men on base in the ninth inning and raise the win expectancy for the opposing team, but that’s exactly what happened when Russell ran into the second out. Miguel Montero worked a solid at-bat in an attempt to keep the rally alive, but eventually struck out to end the ballgame.
Key Moment: Having already focused on some of the frustrating key moments in the game, I would like to turn things around on a more positive note. With the Cubs down 1-0 in the third inning and two outs, Anthony Rizzo ripped a double down the first base line that scored Dexter Fowler all the way from first. Junior Lake followed with a double that scored Rizzo, which was one of two doubles in a 2-for-4 performance.
Lake batted in the cleanup spot in the lineup because Jorge Soler needed to sit out with an ankle injury. Soler could miss a few games, and they’re hoping that he won’t need a stint on the DL. Lake looks like Joe Maddon’s first option off the bench in the outfield, and so far this season he’s had a few flashes of the ability he teased us with when he first arrived in 2013.
Trend to Watch: Hendricks has had a little issue so far this season, and that’s “the big inning.” It hasn’t happened in any one specific inning, but in five of his ten starts this year he’s allowed three or more runs in a single inning. That’s problematic and frustrating, especially because it’s often not come from Hendricks being hit hard but rather for weak contact, walks, and errors.
Take for example this game, where the Marlins three-run inning was the result of a single by the pitcher, a bunt single (followed by the baserunners advancing on an error), a walk, and a double in the gap. Only the ball by Ozuna was hit hard, and that was the one that drove in all three runs. Another solid example was Hendricks’ start against the Pirates at Wrigley Field on May 15, when he allowed two infield singles, followed by a solid single to right field, and then a double. That ended up being a four-run inning in an 11-10 victory for the Cubs.
After allowing his big inning against the Marlins, Hendricks saw his numbers rise to a 3.99 ERA/3.44 FIP/3.65 xFIP. All things considered, as the fourth starter on a team fighting for a playoff spot, you’d take those numbers. Cat Garcia wrote recently about Hendricks and his use of his sinker, which has spurred some of his recent success. I like Hendricks a lot and I find him easy to root for, considering his fringe-average stuff and the precision that he often pitches with. He’s fun to watch when he’s on his game.
Coming Next: The Cubs (27-23) finish out their three-game set with the Marlins (21-32) tonight at 6:10pm. They’ll have Jon Lester on the mound opposing Dan Haren, who’s actually had a pretty good season so far for the Marlins, posting a 3.03 ERA in spite of his 4.43 FIP and 4.26 xFIP. The Cubs have a rough stretch coming up, with four in Washington and two in Detroit before heading home for a four-game set with Cincinnati. With Lester on the mound, this game is pretty important if the Cubs are going to arrive home with a successful road trip.
I really miss 2013 Lake, having that dude on this team would be a lot of fun.
2013 Lake was a lot of fun, but even with all the talent and the improved approach I doubt we ever see that from him again consistently. Laying off balls outside the strike zone can only do so much when you struggle to make contact with pitches inside the strike zone. I still hold out hope he can make for a solid 4th outfielder.