Comments on: Wearing ‘Em Down: Cubs’ Hitters Are Really Good at Running Up the Count http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/29/wearing-em-down-cubs-hitters-are-really-good-at-running-up-the-count/ Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site Sat, 16 Feb 2019 21:04:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 By: Rian Watt http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/29/wearing-em-down-cubs-hitters-are-really-good-at-running-up-the-count/#comment-1759 Mon, 29 Jun 2015 14:51:45 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2243#comment-1759 Hey, great to hear from you! It’s an interesting point, although I should say at the outset that I was referring to overall pitch counts, rather than Cubs’ hitters working deep counts (though there are of course interaction effects). Here’s a couple of ways to get at your question:

1. Look at the Cubs offense independently of the pitching. The Cubs have a top-7 NL offense by tAV (.263) and a top-5 MLB offense by offensive VORP (156.1) so, generically, I think it’s unlikely that they don’t have the offense to push pitchers out of games;

2. Look at the runs allowed per pitch by opposing starters against the Cubs, vs. against the rest of the league;

3. Look at the innings starters pitch against the Cubs, versus the rest of the league;

4. Look at how many pitches per plate appearance the Cubs are seeing;

5. Possibly others, but I’m quite tired at the moment.

I’ll put in some data requests and look into it. I generally think point #1 strongly suggests it isn’t inneffective offense, but I’m happy to be proven wrong.

]]> By: Cy http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/29/wearing-em-down-cubs-hitters-are-really-good-at-running-up-the-count/#comment-1757 Mon, 29 Jun 2015 14:14:09 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2243#comment-1757 Interesting numbers, but aren’t you leaving out an important variable in terms of how long those starters lasted in those games? I.e. A high pitch count by a starter against the Cubs might be due to them running up counts, but could also be the product of the offense being ineffective and therefore able to last 8 or 9 innings of effective pitching. If you look at the highest game scores (e.g. The 20-strikeout Kerry wood game), they all have super-high pitch counts. Not sure that having a high average starter’s pitch count means that you’re actually getting to the bullpen.

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