Comments on: Determining Fowler’s Value as Free Agency Looms

By: Ryan Davis

Ryan Davis — Wed, 16 Sep 2015 22:53:06 +0000

I really hope they aren’t in a position where it’s either resign Fowler or sign a starting pitcher. Because honestly, they need two starting pitchers this offseason.

By: Ryan Davis

Ryan Davis — Wed, 16 Sep 2015 22:52:07 +0000

Thanks for the comment Jan, and I agree that he’s the best player the Cubs have had in center in quite a while. The only thing I will disagree with you on is his defense. While he certainly doesn’t make a lot of errors or mental mistakes, his overall defense is lacking and whatever team he plays for next season would be better off with him at a corner spot and a better defensive player in center field.

The best thing I can point to is defensive runs saved (DRS), which is a stat Fangraphs uses. Their baseline scale states that a player that has -15 DRS for a season is an “awful” defender, and a 0 DRS is “average”. Fowler had a -20 DRS in center field last year, and so far this season has a -11 DRS.

He definitely is a good guy in the clubhouse, from what I’ve seen and heard. He’s a very good bat to have, considering the OBP and power that he gives you and the fact that he can switch-hit. If the Cubs can find a way to strike a deal with him before the qualifying offers need to be submitted, that would be ideal.

By: jan labij

jan labij — Wed, 16 Sep 2015 22:11:33 +0000

From what I’ve seen of
Dexter Fowler, he’s more than a adequete center fielder. Although his batting average is not that great, his OBP is. He also is a valuable guy to have in the clubhouse. Best center fielder we’ve had around here in a while.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 15:29:32 +0000

I know nothing about how Bourn and Markakis approached the game, but Fowler’s offseason work with Barry Bonds has shown a guy who is willing to keep working to improve his skillset, something that has shown up this year with the various career highs mentioned in the article. As long as Fowler continues down that path, I see no reason why the Cubs wouldn’t jump at a 4-year, $60 million deal.

By: Ryan Davis

Ryan Davis — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 15:18:17 +0000

I agree on the Bourn contract, but I think Fowlers skills age well. His high OBP and good power will play at a corner spot. Also, I disagree on the Markakis contract (at this point). He hits and gets on base and plays a decent RF. If he hadn’t signed that contract with a team that was about to take a huge dive, the perception would be better. If he had signed with the Mets, for example, and was batting leadoff and playing LF/RF for them, the 3/$33m remaining would look different. I think it’s worth discussing a contract with Fowler, especially if the payroll continues to rise. If it’s anything more than four years, then I start to waver a bit on it.

By: Steve Davis

Steve Davis — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 14:23:03 +0000

The question becomes if you can only sign either Fowler or a starting pitcher, which do you prioritize? My guess is the starting pitcher.

By: Carlos Portocarrero

Carlos Portocarrero — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 14:18:19 +0000

It’s also worth noting that both those contracts (Markakis and Bourn) aren’t looking so good for each team. Bourn is a shell of his former self and Markakis seems to have lost all his power. He’s hitting .290 and getting on base, but that’s about all he can do. Scary to commit that kind of money when looking at how that turned out.

Although I do think Fowler is a much better player than either of those two guys.

By: Ryan Davis

Ryan Davis — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 13:54:36 +0000

The years on Fowler are a concern, but I think his skills that the Cubs will care about will age well. It’s important to understand that if they sign him, it means getting a corner outfielder that gets on base, hits for decent power, and can lead off. If Albert Almora is ready and looks like a major league center fielder in say, 2016, then you look at possibly trading from a position of strength or even platooning Schwarber and Fowler in LF a bit while Schwarber also catches several days a week and sits against tough lefties.

By: jefflamb

jefflamb — Tue, 15 Sep 2015 13:48:06 +0000

Good article, Ryan. Important to note that the Cubs have significant payroll flexibility in the coming years, and are currently just under league average for payroll.
Assuming this year’s run boosts revenues, there should be incrementally more cash to play with than planned as renovations continue on profit centers.
Next year, the Cubs have only $82 million committed (to only 10 players). Assuming the budget is the same as this year’s at a minimum, and assuming $25 million for a front line pitcher, they should have another $20-$25 million to use to fill out the roster without significantly increasing payroll.
The years on Fowler scare me more than the AAV. I think I would rather see them extend a QO and see what happens.