Comments on: NLDS Game 1 Recap: Cardinals 4 Cubs 0 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/10/10/nlds-game-1-recap-cardinals-4-cubs-0/ Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site Sat, 16 Feb 2019 21:04:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 By: Bill Thomson http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/10/10/nlds-game-1-recap-cardinals-4-cubs-0/#comment-5036 Sat, 10 Oct 2015 17:21:36 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5444#comment-5036 “Home-plate umpire Phil Cuzzi called a wide strike zone, though not an unfair [should read “unequal”] one, and because the Cubs’ hitters were more reticent to expand their zone than their Cardinal counterparts, that had a greater effect on the Chicago offense.”

Wrong on both points….Any strike zone which is not the rule-book zone is unfair to teams that are built on plate discipline, as are the Cubs–and also the Cards, for that matter. It also injects an element of noise into the equation that disguises the true skill levels of both the hitters and pitchers.

In 2015 the Cubs (30.5%) were slightly less likely to swing at pitches out of the zone than the Cards (31.3%), but the Cards and the Cubs were 1-2 in MLB in the percentage of pitches thrown to them in the zone. This is strong evidence that the final arbiters of opposition strike-zone recognition, opposing MLB pitchers, accept that they have to throw in the zone to hitters of both teams. If an umpire allows them to expand that zone, it is a significant advantage for the pitchers, and a significant detriment for hitters unwilling to swing outside the zone.

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