Comments on: How Lucky Were the 2015 Cubs? http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/ Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site Sat, 16 Feb 2019 21:04:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 By: Griffin http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7749 Thu, 24 Dec 2015 23:06:33 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7749 Gotcha, thanks for the reply, love the content!

]]> By: Carlos Portocarrero http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7709 Tue, 22 Dec 2015 01:22:52 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7709 Griffin, you’re right, I simply added the rankings to get the overall numbers. I wanted a score that simply evaluated how lucky each team was relative to the rest only taking these characteristics into consideration.

I ran these for 2014 as well and found that there was little to no correlation between where teams ranked one year versus the next.

Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts!

]]> By: Griffin http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7705 Mon, 21 Dec 2015 22:44:14 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7705 I’m not sure I understand how you scaled this. It looks like you just added up the ranks for each category–but that doesn’t correct for which categories are weighted more(ie shouldn’t it be all put in terms of WAR added or lost, or some common factor)?

]]> By: Matt http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7589 Wed, 16 Dec 2015 19:43:59 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7589 Third order wins were really only one less than they actually won, however. This strips out the one-run-win, extra-inning, and clustering luck elements. The rookie performances- generally (outside Schwarber), were heavily weighted by strong base running and defense- which you wouldn’t expect to regress solely because of luck, as well. Health, I can’t argue with- and injuries to Lester and/or Arrieta would have a substantial negative impact on their outlook.

]]> By: Eddie http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7587 Wed, 16 Dec 2015 18:08:43 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7587 I would be interested to see this done for the 2003 & 2004 Cubs.

]]> By: Carlos Portocarrero http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7584 Wed, 16 Dec 2015 17:07:01 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7584 Not sure how widespread it is, but I know teams look at each of these categories quite a bit. I know I do—I just had never tried to compile them into one general view.

Thanks for the feedback!

]]> By: Chris http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7582 Wed, 16 Dec 2015 16:40:48 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7582 Nice. This explains quite a bit, and not only about the Cubs season. I wonder how long this type of analysis has been in use, and how widespread it is.

]]> By: Carlos Portocarrero http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7580 Wed, 16 Dec 2015 16:26:52 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7580 Thanks Jim! I appreciate it!

]]> By: JimJames http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/12/16/how-lucky-were-the-2015-cubs/#comment-7579 Wed, 16 Dec 2015 16:16:54 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7019#comment-7579 This is great stuff.

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