Comments on: The 25th Man: Assessing the Race for the Roster http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/ Just another Baseball Prospectus Local Sites site Sat, 16 Feb 2019 21:04:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1 By: theguz http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8514 Thu, 28 Jan 2016 02:46:57 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8514 Not sure how C’s would get less rest than on a typical team, which carries only 2 (we saw the prob w/ 3 last yr, and it cost us a lot, Castillo–another deficit on Ross’ balance sheet). Speaking of last yr, remember we played into late May with 13 P’s, 8 posn guys, and only 4 subs–2 of whom were exclusively C’s? That meant only Herrera and an OF for the bench (Szczur/Dorfman/Lake).

It’s one of the reasons I’m so jacked for this season: not only did we get better O and D outta both Heyward and Zo, but Baez is your new Herrera, and .784 OPSer Cogs is your new Dorfman.

My proposal would be 54 starts for Schwarbs at C, 108 for Montero. Montero gets 54 days off–and he needs them.

Schwarbs plays another 90 G or so in LF, still having 18 G off.

That’s 72 G open in LF–plug in Cogs for 54 of ‘em (vs. RHP). The other 18 can go to Baez or Zo.

As for Zo, pencil him in for 18 G off, 144 total, say 110 at 2B and 34 split between RF, LF, 3B or 1B, as needed. The 52 G he does not play at 2B? Baez gets those.

Give Russell 18 G off–Baez gets those, too.

Similarly, give Rizzo and Bryant 12 G off each. Tho young, they were both tanked by the post season. Zo/Bry in for Rizz, Zo/Baez in for Bryant.

Injuries? Say Soler, the most injury-prone, misses 60 G, as he did last yr: Heyward to RF, Baez or Szczur to CF, or Cogs/Zo to RF.

I haven’t added all this up, and maybe some moves are duplicative, but u get the idea. There’s plenty of flexibility, depth, and talent here to make it all happen. And this says nothing of added playing time with pinch hitting/defensive subs to still keep benchers happy and sharp.

I’m a big proponent of rest, so now I’m gonna.

]]> By: Isaac Bennett http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8511 Thu, 28 Jan 2016 01:02:03 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8511 Intriguing. I’d love to see simulations on what effects this would have not only on the pitching staff, but also on the position players (getting way less rest), especially the catchers.

]]> By: theguz http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8506 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 20:31:57 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8506 We will certainly have an 8-man pen at minimum. But I’d love to go further–9 guys. Dump Ross, 14 P’s, 8 posn guys, and 3 subs: Cogs, Szczur, Baez.

They won’t do it, but I’d consider getting the jump on the league by going to a 6-man rotation (adding Warren, who may be as good as our #2). Ah, the luxury: 26 starts instead of 32; 3 diff pen guys each game, if nec, on their own rotation; 54 GP for the pen guys, instead of 80 (see Neil Ramirez). Rest, rest, rest–plus plenty of excellence–and then lights out in Oct!

]]> By: theguz http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8505 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 20:23:45 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8505 Wouldn’t LF then get an uptick in D? Cogs? Further, the diff between Cogs and Schwarber last yr was 58 OPS pts; between Schwarbs and Ross, 324, i.e., light yrs.

]]> By: Isaac Bennett http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8495 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 15:52:37 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8495 All very valid points, and involved in the consideration. I believe this is hugely dependent upon how much they believe in Baez’s ability to play the outfield. If they are confident in that, La Stella gets the nod (which as of now I am banking on). If they are not, it’s either a seven-man pen and Szczur, or eight-man and Szczur with La Stella getting bumped to Iowa.

Of course, we’re likely to have a bruise or two before then, so it could all be moot.

]]> By: JS http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8494 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 15:49:25 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8494 My only counterpoint would be that the line-up tilts slightly left-handed right now and that is skewed further by the talent discrepancy. Bryant is obviously elite and right handed, Zobrist is excellent and switch-hits, but beyond them, there are Soler and Baez (both projecting around 100-110 wRC+ types) and then David Ross. The bench will have Coghlan as it’s best hitter, who hits left-handed. Adding La Stella deepens the advantage on the long side platoon, but limits the team’s options to take advantage of short side match ups and makes the team slightly vulnerable to left-handed relievers being able to face multiple batters consecutively. Additionally, the team has to be very bullish to have Baez as their back-up CF / defensive outfielder replacement, since it’s likely that one of Schwarber and Soler will be the target of the double switch early in games and often. I would postulate that the defensive outfielder would have more game impact than whatever La Stella brings as a pinch hitter. Especially since La Stella will be a phone call away at Iowa.

]]> By: Isaac Bennett http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8475 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 04:00:24 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8475 Hmmm, I am not sure Schwarber’s “flexibility” can be considered, when the two positions he plays are likely to be at well below league-average defensively.

]]> By: Isaac Bennett http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8474 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 03:59:07 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8474 I agree on Ramirez – too much talent to let go. As for Szczur, I agree that this is a viable possibility. However, I think Maddon will ultimately value La Stella’s bat over Szczur’s, and he will get the nod. If this was 2015 and the expectation of competitiveness was slightly lower, than I could see it going the other direction. However, this season is about maximizing wins at all times, and I believe La Stella will win out because of that.

]]> By: Isaac Bennett http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8473 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 03:55:41 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8473 1) That’s not really true…you’re just subtracting Schwarber from left and adding him back in at C. The defensive dropoff is significant.

]]> By: JS http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/26/the-25th-man-assessing-the-race-for-the-roster/#comment-8472 Wed, 27 Jan 2016 03:53:22 +0000 http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7569#comment-8472 They will find space for Neil Ramirez if he’s healthy. Given that his inclusion requires an 8 man pen, the one position player slot is going to need to cover the two primary roster weaknesses: outfield defense and platoon advantage vs. LHP. I would guess Szczur over La Stella because of La Stella’s options, with Alcantara being the preference if he can hit enough to justify it — but likely ticketed to Iowa.

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