Comments on: PECOTA Day: Why Addison Russell Boasts the Most Interesting, Least Useful Cubs Projection

By: Joel

Joel — Thu, 18 Feb 2016 01:27:41 +0000

No comment other than this is really smart analysis. Well done.

By: Matthew Trueblood

Matthew Trueblood — Wed, 17 Feb 2016 04:48:14 +0000

PECOTA uses cFIP to project pitchers; it’s a pitching-only stat. True Average doesn’t see times-through-the-order splits or starter/reliever splits.

By: forrest

forrest — Wed, 17 Feb 2016 04:09:32 +0000

I thought PECOTA uses cFIP, which ‘sees’ reliever/starter splits and should already know about that aspect of Russell’s year

By: theguz

theguz — Wed, 17 Feb 2016 04:06:10 +0000

Only way Zobrist should lead off is vs. LHP–and Heyward should slide to 6th. Vice versa vs. RHP.

I could live w/ Zo batting 2 vs. RHP, but like the idea of him batting 6th–as a guy to clean up the bases with contact or to be a true second leadoff. So too with Heyward when a LHP starts

Splits totally show Zo is at his worst leading off ( 702 OPS), tho I’m not sure if he’s so atrocious leading off vs LHP.

Russell, then, could bat 2 in all situations. And while conceded he may not steal a ton of bases, he does have speed (21/24 SB/Att last full/healthy season in minors).

If I can’t get my wish, for God’s sake bat him 7th–Montero behind him.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 17 Feb 2016 03:28:09 +0000

You have some good points, however, I don’t think you can use speed here. It’s nto like the guy is going to steal 50 bases.

As well, it’s not as if he had a slew of doubles turned into singles.

There is no way he hits second. That would be true no matter what, but doing so, now, assuming Zobrist leads off, drops, most likely, soler to seventh.

Besides, those guys still follow him, now.

I don’t really care where he hits.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 17 Feb 2016 03:22:34 +0000

If your career is killed because you hit ninth, you were never destined to have much of a career.

By: Isaac Bennett

Isaac Bennett — Tue, 16 Feb 2016 22:36:20 +0000

I want him out of the nine-hole so badly it makes me want to scream. Give the kid a fighting chance, for heavens sake.

By: theguz

theguz — Tue, 16 Feb 2016 21:36:01 +0000

It’s not about ego, it’s about the team….and Matt just gave us the latest, greatest data on why Russell batting 9th is absolute idiocy.

Having Russell wait to hit after a P, who may end an inning, kill an inning, or get an inning off to a bad start us folly enough; having him wait for Ross AND a P is suicide. So too with costing him 20 PA over the 8-spot, or 40 over the 7-spot, over the course of the season.

He’s also faster than Ross, Montero, and the pitchers; batting him behind them jams up another part of his utility.

Joe said Russell hitting 9th would cause him to see better pitches than at 8th. That was with Fowler following. Wanna know what else might improve the pitches he sees? Batting 2nd–with Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Soler to follow. The kid hit .300 and OPS’d nearly .900 in the minors, with healthy contact rates–he can do it!

Quit being too smart, Joe, bat your worst hitter last (P or Ross), and let’s get on with it.

And cut Ross.

By: Rob

Rob — Tue, 16 Feb 2016 18:28:45 +0000

I’m sure Theo/Jed can communicate to Russell they see his value, despite the statistical drop-off he faces hitting in the nine spot. I’m not saying he’s destined to hit ninth his whole career, but this information makes me curious how long Russell (and his agent) will be OK with him batting ninth before egos kick in. Enter Joe Maddon, I suppose…