Comments on: Boom or Bust? Evaluating Individual Upside and Downside, Pt. I

By: Isaac Bennett

Isaac Bennett — Wed, 24 Feb 2016 20:28:51 +0000

Thanks Jesse, I appreciate the feedback.

By: J Mcgowan

J Mcgowan — Wed, 24 Feb 2016 20:03:55 +0000

This is probably one of my favorite articles of the offseason i’ve read…very cool. Dreaming about the upside, being aware of the downside, and realizing that something in-between the two is still pretty damn good. Well done.

By: Isaac Bennett

Isaac Bennett — Tue, 23 Feb 2016 21:11:28 +0000

Thanks – yes, I completely agree. I think evaluating the differences in how an approach would change the bottom-line result would be highly speculative. However, I think Bryant provides a decent example of the opposite approach (thus, maybe higher SLG, lower OBP and more K’s). Take note that even Bryant said his approach might change a bit (at least with a more level swing, less loft…I would also guess a slightly cut down two strike approach).

By: Rob

Rob — Tue, 23 Feb 2016 21:08:08 +0000

Great article. In reference to Rizzo’s soft contact rate, as you noted, this is surely a product of his sizable choking up with two strikes. At least by pure observation, it seems like his ability to foul off quality two strike pitches probably feeds into the amount of walks he is able to draw. I would be curious to see the risks/benefits of a more aggressive two strike approach, with the average/slugging benefits versus a possible drop-off in OBP.

By: Isaac Bennett

Isaac Bennett — Tue, 23 Feb 2016 16:21:34 +0000

Thanks very much for the kind words. Glad you enjoyed reading it. Come back for Part two from Cat Garcia later this week!

By: dtpollitt

dtpollitt — Tue, 23 Feb 2016 15:46:44 +0000

Fantastic piece and excellent idea for looking at expected range of player outcomes.