As for pitch framing, it is highly overrated (Sal Perez one of worst last yr) and also untrustworthy (LuCroy one of best in ’14, one of worst in ’15). Besides, it’s 1 PITCH–NOT A BASE. Accordingly, things like Es, PB, WP preventions, and CS are all more important–not to mention the other half (maybe more) of a C’s importance– hitting.

To that end, and addressing one of your thesis points, Contreras is more than ready; between last yr’s bat title at AA, continued dominance in the AFL, ST, and at AAA this yr, the bat is already there. You of course are right about familiarity with the staff, but that’s an automatic. As for gunning down runners, you may not believe it, but run the numbers: of every C I’ve studied, his MLB CS% is completely correlational to his minor league CS%–usually within a percentage pt.

I never wish for an athlete to get hurt, but one of the best things that happened to the ’15 Cubs was Montero’s injury; if either Montero or Ross–the latter so much the weaker–goes down, we are actually sitting pretty–again.

Montero can’t catch 130? I hope he can–that’s what we signed him to do–and that’s what the guy we threw away to get Ross

And you failed to address the thesis of my article yet again: if Ross doesn’t get more starts with Schwarber gone, who is? Montero absolutely can’t handle more, as fatigue will set in and he’ll be ineffective like he was surrounding his injury last season. The Cubs’ FO clearly believes that Contreras needs more time to develop both his bat and his glove, and I doubt he gets the call before midseason, and even then he’ll only get it if Montero is struggling or unhealthy. Ross doesn’t have better splits. Ross is a bad hitter. But Montero can’t start 130 games, and Contreras isn’t knocking at the door yet.

Context, friend.

Montero’s splits are far from meaningless, and they’re far from “not good”–unless Heyward’s are, too. That’s why I cited the life numbers. And if a .660 OPS is “not good”, do tell what .440 is in your book.

You also assume Contreras is worse defensively, based on
…umm…the fact Contreras has twice the arm?

It’s cuz of those ignorant of the data that I’ve given up hope of getting Ross out before Oct ’16; I’ll also not fight him catching Lester–that’s 32 days of rest for Montero. But when someone wants to tell me Ross has better splits or, on an ancillary point, is better defensively than Contreras, I vociferously object to getting even more crap jammed down my throat.

Second, Montero had 56 plate appearances versus lefties last season, rendering his splits that you cite essentially meaningless. His career numbers against lefties aren’t good.

Even if we conclude that Montero does hit lefties better than Ross, what do you suppose the Cubs do about it? Montero can’t play every day, and is actually a helluva lot more effective when he gets rest. Ideally he gets 3/5 of the starts or so. If you read the piece, you’ll know what the consequences of this are. Ross is much better defensively than Contreras at this point, so while Contreras replacing Ross would be a large offensive upgrade, there’s significant defensive value that the Cubs would be losing. That bears consideration, especially with regard to Contreras’s defensive development, if you believe he’ll be the catcher of the future.

Also, if you’re nitpicking splits, Heyward hit closer to a .270 True Average versus lefties last season, and he’s young enough to still change his approach and improve. And again, his defensive value outweighs his poor career numbers versus lefties.

Maybe if you stopped your crusading against the Cubs’ senior catcher for one second, you would see the consequences of a Ross-less Cubs.

Montero OPSd .786 vs LHP last yr–better than he did vs RHP (.749).

Ross OPSd an incredibly obnoxious .518 last yr as a 38 yr old–the 2nd-worst mark in all MLB among those w/ 180 PA; do you expect better at 39?

Never mind even that: the point is that, like Montero, his splits were also REVERSE: an intolerable .549 RHP/a send-to-hell .440 LHP.

Yes, that means MONTERO OPSd 346 PTS HIGHER VS LHP.

Think last yr was a fluke? Montero’s life OPS vs LHP is .657; yes, that is 217 pts better than Ross’ mark last yr.

There’s more: guess who else OPS’s exactly .657 vs LHP in his life? Heyward. Wanna sit him? Wanna sit him for Mark Belanger, better yet?

Plz help me get the truth out there–this is the darkest lie in Chicago sports. I can’t get Ross outta here soon enough, but maybe if sports writers start getting these basic facts out there, we can get Ross off the field the second Lester departs.

BTW, Ross is 0/3 throwing out runners; Montero the exact same.

Vote Contreras/Schwarber ’17.