Huh?

What production difference? Runs are the only one you can really cite, and I’ll grant you that is driven by OBP, where Russell is about 40 % points behind….but it is just as if not more driven by how often you’re getting driven in, which batting 8 hole vs batting 3 or 4 hole is going to impact.

I mean, the single biggest stat, agreed upon by just about everybody, I’ll bet you and I both will agree…is RBI. Certanly if production is cited, that is the biggest factor.

Here’s some juicy nuggets for chewing on:

With bases loaded 19-7 AR
Runner at 1st 15-9 KB
1st & 2nd 15-9 AR
2nd & 3rd 6-2 AR
Men on base at all 62-53 AR
Men on, 2 outs 23-15 AR
Runners in scoring position 53-38 AR
Scoring position, 2 outs 20-15 AR
7th or later 25-17 AR
2 outs 25-18 AR
Since AS break 15-3 AR
Intentional Walks 5-4 AR (just wanted to include that thought it was remarkable, both that AR was leading the team, but that it’s so few….pitchers need to wake up! But that’s what happens when you’re stacked up and down the lineup)

Pretty dramatically dominated by Russell (mention that Rizzo is just amazing, he’s leading almost all of them and is probably the Cubs MVP and probably should be the league MVP…I get WAR, but I don’t get WAR).

Another interesting thing to consider and such a great indicator for a young hitter is that although both use the whole field, Russell goes oppo 5% more and generally doesn’t pull the ball 6% more often. He’s using the whole field more than KB, which says a ton about a guy his age and experience level.

I love Bryant, he’s one of my very favorite players and I’d not trade him for anyone including Mike Trout. But I’d probably not Russell either. When all is said and done, he may end up the purest hitter on our team. And as is well documented and these stats I listed indicate…the guy is at his best when the pressure is highest.

I say….imagine last postseason if he’s not hurt? Defensively alone, as the Mets abused us on the basepaths and I don’t remember how many times I said out loud “that doesn’t happen if Russell is healthy.” But he’s been clutch both season’s, so logical to add a few runs.

I looked for strand rate but couldn’t find a site listing it. Be curious for both 2015 and 2016 how many times each was stranded on base….out on a limb, it’s a lot more for AR.

Z-Contact is a context statistic, and to look at it alone, tells about 10% of the story. The improvement too…you have to use it in context of about 3-4 other stats, you can pick which, they may vary. But you can build a great MLB hitter and those will be wildly different.

I hear others say similar to what you say…and maybe there is room for concern…but his dramatic improvement in the season, as a pup…is very, very encouraging. And overall, whether or not I might even agree to an extent….to say “given his production….”

Well…

Sharpen your pencil and please return at a later date with a more apropos source of your reasoning ;). To say “his production,” is to undermine the argument.

Just messing with you…trust me if you were a Cardinal fan or anything but a Cubs fan, I’d have really gotten on you, but I make a point of trying to remember we’re brethren and both support the same squad. But comments like this, with supporting evidence such as this….stick in my craw. I am going to guess you’ve not been big on Russell from day one, further, I’m going to guess you’ve been pretty hard on Theo before last year, and may be still whenever the door cracks a sliver and you get a tiny chance (as that’s all there is)? The boards I’m on most, have fans that would make a similar argument, and they’re the mystifying, vexing, Theo haters.

I know it’s not everything but the ability to hit a pitch within the strikezone is what separates the guys on the field from us guys watching. I really like Russell, and he is a very good defensive SS, but unless he improves his ability to make contact I really think his ceiling is considerably lower than his peers.

Bryant is well down the Z-contact% list as well but given his production you can live with it. He has also shown improvement from last season, 75.8% to 79.9%.