As the offseason winds down and spring training starts ramping up, we all start talking about baseball players like puzzle pieces. How is this piece going to fit in? How many dollars is this piece worth? What pieces are missing? Which teams have too many pieces? Is this piece a good fit?
Then days like yesterday happen, and we’re reminded that all these pieces are living, breathing human beings. Despite the millions of dollars they make and the elite skills they possess, they are people just like you and I.
Case in point: Dexter Fowler.
If you look at Fowler’s offseason from the detached, puzzle-piece point of view, he had a pretty brutal time of it. He turned down a $15 million qualifying offer by the Cubs because it was pretty obvious he would be signing a multi-year deal worth more than double that.
So far, so good.
But then the offseason dragged on into February and we all wondered what was up with Fowler not having a team yet. Then, finally, the Orioles pounced with their typical “wait-until-the-last-minute” move—a three year deal worth $35 million.
Orioles & OF Dexter Fowler have agreed to terms on a 3-year deal. (via @Buster_ESPN & multiple reports) pic.twitter.com/GHcmGgAJM5
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 24, 2016
So far so good—the free-agent player that turned down $15 million signs for $35 million. 35 is greater than 15. No-brainer, right? But then then this happened:
Dexter Fowler is BACK with the #Cubs. Theo/Jed surprise team during meeting. Wow. pic.twitter.com/UBVbeB2mlh
— Ryan McGuffey (@RyanMcGuffey) February 25, 2016
Cubs Twitter exploded and Orioles fans were appalled.
Let’s dig into the numbers: the Cubs will pay Fowler $8 million in 2016 with an option for 2017 at $9 million. That’s still “just” $17 million over two years. If the Cubs decide they don’t want Fowler back for 2017 then they’ll buy him out for $5 million.
This looks like a great deal for the Cubs, doesn’t it? They get to bring back a clubhouse favorite and it allows them to slot Jason Heyward in his natural right field. They also get an insurance policy of sorts on both Jorge Soler and Albert Almora. If Soler isn’t quite ready or has injury problems again, the Cubs are covered. If Almora isn’t ready in 2017, they have Fowler ready to fill in for another year. From Epstein’s point of view, they nailed it.
On the other side of the coin, Orioles fans are probably wondering why Fowler doesn’t fire his agent. He could’ve gotten $15 million months ago to stay with the Cubs. But he wanted to see what he could get on the free-agent market, so he went out and tried. Why not take the $35 million the Orioles were offering? Isn’t this a bad decision?
Nope, and the answer is simple: Fowler wanted to be a Cub. He wanted to be back with “the guys.” He wanted to be back with Maddon. Regardless of the playing-time question, this is where he felt he belonged. Not only that, he wanted to tell his teammates himself that he was coming back and somehow managed to keep this whole thing a secret until that amazing moment he walked onto the field.
Remember, these are human beings that aren’t always chasing top dollar. You can’t always buy whatever piece you want by throwing money at them.
Fowler’s agent should be praised: he explored opportunities for his client that he earned in becoming a free agent and when those opportunities didn’t measure up to the fit and winning atmosphere that Fowler enjoyed so much as a Cub, he found a way to bring him back.
Not buying the squishy, non-quantifiable “emotional” part of this story? Fine—let’s look at Fowler’s cold, hard numbers. In the three years prior to joining the Cubs, Fowler had posted pretty good offensive numbers and developed a reputation for being a bad defender in CF. His WARP during those three years was 1.8, 1.1, and 1.4 and his FRAA was -10, -10, and -15.
With the Cubs, Fowler posted the second best WARP in his career: 3.7. His defense flipped into positive territory at 1.1. Sure, Wrigley Field has a small outfield and that may have helped, but if you look at the numbers it’s plain to see that Fowler did very well for himself in Chicago. It was a successful season in that his numbers improved (theoretically making him a more valuable player) and he was on a winning team that got deep into the playoffs.
Winning—that’s something that’s hard to walk away from. PECOTA thinks the Cubs are going to be the second-best team in baseball in 2016 while the Orioles are slated to be the second-worst team in the league.
As for Fowler himself, PECOTA has him pegged as a 1.7 WARP player with a -8 FRAA in 2017. In looking at those numbers, it’s pretty clear PECOTA didn’t think the Cubs were going to re-sign him either. Those numbers are mirror images of what he did before he landed on the North Side. Can he repeat his 2015 numbers this season? Maybe, and at least he’s mind is where it needs to be to make that happen.
In the press conference after the announcement, Epstein said that Fowler “decided to go with the fit over the money.”
Who could blame him? He had a couple of options: go with the team that seems to treat baseball players like puzzle pieces more than any other (and get paid), or to go back to the team that re-energized his career as a very good baseball player.
#Cubs together again. pic.twitter.com/9gJbqp5ihA
— Carrie Muskat (@CarrieMuskat) February 25, 2016
That says it all. Fowler ended up choosing camaraderie over cash. Man hugs over millions. And now he gets to play for one of the most exciting teams in baseball. Unless you’re an Orioles fan, can you blame him?
As Orioles fans and media rain hate onto Fowler in the next few days, let’s all remember that these guys aren’t just pieces of a puzzle to be maneuvered this way and that. They’re people that often times value things besides money. If you’re an organization that doesn’t understand that, you’re going to have a lot of trouble putting together a winning team. If you’re a team that understands this and can leverage it, you’re going to have a huge advantage.
Lead photo courtesy Anthony Gruppuso—USA Today Sports.
Great article, and very good at reminding us what we should always remember when talking about all the deal making that goes on.
Thanks Dale! Glad you enjoyed it… I wish more people remembered this during times like this… Best of luck to Chris Coghlan, who was great while he was here.
Nice article. My only comment is I don’t think PECOTA knows/cares where FAs are going to sign when determining projections. I think it’s much more likely PECOTA viewed 2016 as an outlier and that’s the reason he was projected for 1.7 WARP.