The Unheralded Professor Defies Perception Again and Again

Perception is a powerful thing. It’s a tool we all use every day, without really knowing it or understanding how it guides our path through life. It can help us—when it directs us to an answer we couldn’t quite consciously articulate without it—or it can harm us, when it forbids us from breaking free of our first impressions. I catch myself failing, on a daily basis, to properly contextualize a situation or comment, especially when an earlier impression has left my perception clouded and narrow. In the most egregious situations, it is only the passage of time that allows me to gain perspective on the ways in which I reacted poorly to a situation due to a clouded perception. If you don’t know what I am talking about, get married.

So what does this have to do with Kyle Hendricks’s contributions to the Chicago Cubs? Ask yourself these questions: First, how do you perceive Hendricks? Do you think he’s a perfectly serviceable fifth starter, but someone you wouldn’t want to see start a playoff game for the Cubs? Are you bothered by his relative lack of velocity compared to other starting pitchers? Does his cerebral nature leave you questioning his desire, compared to someone like John Lackey? Do you feel yourself longing for a high-profile trade for Sonny Gray, thereby bumping Hendricks to the bullpen despite his excellent results? I admit that I find myself asking these questions occasionally, which is the very reason they just got spilled onto this paper.

Scouting prospects is an impossible task. Not difficult, impossible. It is no coincidence that terms such as “prospects will break your heart” and “there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect” have become popular in recent years. Every scout and armchair analyst has felt the pain of unmet expectations from a young player they dedicated hundreds of hours to. I’m not here to criticize scouts. However, it is these same scouting reports that have left years of indelible impressions upon our delicate subconscious. Kyle Hendricks doesn’t throw hard enough. Kyle Hendricks can get A-ball hitters out, but not High-A. Kyle Hendricks rolled through High-A, no problem, but the quantum leap to Double-A will be his undoing. Fine, he can get journeymen out at Triple-A, but the big leagues humble everyone, especially a starting pitcher that throws 88 mph. Kyle Hendricks can get big-league hitters out, but he can’t strike them out. Kyle Hendricks can strike them out, but he can’t get through a lineup three times. Kyle Hendricks is fine as a fifth starter, but he shouldn’t start in a playoff series. The narrative has continually evolved, and Hendricks has proven it wrong time and again. However, it seems as though these voices in our ear have left an unshakable impression, tainting our evaluations of Hendricks in the process.

Another tendency I see in fans is comparing certain players against only the best players in the league or a given rotation, rather than a peer-to-peer judgment that appropriately places them in context with others at their level. This happens especially often for starting pitchers, where scouting reports regularly state something like “his ceiling is as a number three starter” or “back-end starter.” These evaluations are not made with ill intent, but they have a habit of really sticking to a player. They also fail to effectively compare how a given player may compare to the average back-end starter in a major-league rotation. This happens at the top of rotations as well. Jon Lester is a perfect example of this, as I hear people regularly call him “a great number two starter, but not an ace.” The reality is, Lester would be the best starter on a majority of teams. Point being, folks often possess an inability to contextualize what level of performance the average starting pitching slot in a rotation actually achieves, and it’s often tainted by a players’ skill-set not matching what we perceive to typically precede success. Hendricks’s lack of velocity is a striking example of this.

What I am setting out to achieve with this piece is to give us proper context when evaluating Hendricks’ performance compared to his peers across the league: fifth starters. The first and most glaring issue I ran into in so doing is that many teams in the National League do not even have a dedicated fifth starter, let alone a consistent presence at the back end of the rotation. This led to an inability to set parameters around defining which pitchers should be included (feel free to disagree with my choices, for this reason), which  something I hadn’t even thought about as I began. This reality alone is a strong mark in Hendricks’s favor. The second thing that became apparent is that this comparison would probably be more appropriate with other teams’ second or third starters, rather than their fifth. Such is the depth of this phenomenal Cubs team. Let’s go to the numbers to see how Mr. Hendricks stacks up with his contemporaries in the National League.

Innings Pitched (Rank):
ARI – Archie Bradley: 10 (t-14)
ATL – Williams Perez: 39 (8)
CHC – Kyle Hendricks: 55 (t-2)
CIN – John Lamb: 24 (12)
COL – Jorge De La Rosa: 23 (13)
LAD – Mike Bolsinger: 10 (t-14)
MIA- Justin Nicolino: 33 (9)
MIL – Junior Guerra: 30 (t-10)
NYM – Bartolo Colon: 55 (t-2)
PHI – Adam Morgan: 30 (t-10)
PIT – Juan Nicasio: 42 (7)
SD – Colin Rae: 50 (6)
SFG – Matt Cain: 54 (t-4)
STL – Mike Leake: 62 (1)
WAS – Joe Ross: 54 (t-4)

While not a typical barometer for success in starting pitching, this perfectly illustrates just how muddy the picture is for many teams. It shows how desperate more than half the league is to find a go-to-guy to round out a rotational turn, when just seven teams fifth starter has eclipsed the 40-inning mark at this point of the season. Hendricks is tied for the second most innings, trailing only Mike Leake, the Cardinals’ $80 million dollar free agent signing this offseason.

BB/9, K/9, K/BB (Rank):
ARI – Archie Bradley: 6.1, 5.2, 0.85 (15, 13, 15)
ATL – Williams Perez: 2.8, 4.4, 1.57 (7, 14, 12)
CHC – Kyle Hendricks: 2.0, 7.3, 3.65 (3, 4, 2)
CIN – John Lamb: 4.6, 5.3, 1.08 (13, 12, 13)
COL – Jorge De La Rosa: 5.7, 11.0, 1.92 (14, 1, 8)
LAD – Mike Bolsinger: 2.7, 7.2, 2.66 (t-4, 3, 4)
MIA- Justin Nicolino: 3.1, 3.1, 1.00 (9, 15, 14)
MIL – Junior Guerra: 3.6, 9.0, 2.50 (11, t-2, 7)
NYM – Bartolo Colon: 1.8, 6.9, 3.83 (1, t-6, 1)
PHI – Adam Morgan: 3, 5.5, 1.83 (8, t-9, 10)
PIT – Juan Nicasio: 3.4, 9.0, 2.64 (10, t-2, 5)
SD – Colin Rae: 3.9, 6.4, 1.64 (12, t-7, 11)
SFG – Matt Cain: 2.2, 6.4, 1.9 (4, t-7, 9)
STL – Mike Leake: 1.9, 5.5, 2.89 (2, t-9, 3)
WAS – Joe Ross: 2.7, 6.9, 2.55 (t-4, t-6, 6)

Hendricks isn’t typically known as a strikeout pitcher, but his devastating changeup has allowed this area of his game to blossom. After shocking the baseball world by posting an 8.4 K/9 last season, he has picked up where he left off with a solid 7.3 mark this year. It’s good for fourth-best among NL fifth starters, and when combined with his excellent walk rate, his K/BB mark of 3.65 is second best, trailing only the ageless, physique-defying wonder Bartolo Colon.

WHIP (Rank):
ARI – Archie Bradley: 2.03 (14)
ATL – Williams Perez: 1.16 (t-3)
CHC – Kyle Hendricks: 0.98 (1)
CIN – John Lamb: 1.82 (13)
COL – Jorge De La Rosa: 2.28 (15)
LAD – Mike Bolsinger: 1.30 (t-7)
MIA- Justin Nicolino: 1.30 (t-7)
MIL – Junior Guerra: 1.13 (2)
NYM – Bartolo Colon: 1.22 (6)
PHI – Adam Morgan: 1.52 (12)
PIT – Juan Nicasio: 1.38 (9)
SD – Colin Rae: 1.37 (10)
SFG – Matt Cain: 1.43 (11)
STL – Mike Leake: 1.16 (t-3)
WAS – Joe Ross: 1.21 (5)

Hendricks has been masterful at limiting baserunners this season. This shows up beautifully when comparing his WHIP to his fellow fifth starters, as his 0.98 mark blows away the field. He is the only one under 1.10, and only the Brewers’ Junior Guerra joins him beneath 1.15. Hendricks pairs his excellent 2.0 BB/9 with an ace-like 6.8 H/9 rate. It’s no secret how he does this, using pristine command and excellent pitch sequencing. His lack of velocity—and more importantly our perception of how that should translate—simply fades away when it comes to keeping batters off base.

ERA/FIP/DRA (Rank):
ARI – Archie Bradley: 7.84, 5.24, 5.33 (14, 13, 12)
ATL – Williams Perez: 3.72, 3.81, 5.46 (5, 5, 13)
CHC – Kyle Hendricks: 2.93, 2.79, 4.20 (2, 1, 3)
CIN – John Lamb: 6.85, 6.20, 5.92 (13, 14, 14)
COL – Jorge De La Rosa: 11.41, 6.79, 4.91 (15, 15, 7)
LAD – Mike Bolsinger: 4.50, 5.01, 4.84 (11, 10, 5)
MIA- Justin Nicolino: 4.37, 5.03, 5.99 (6, 11, 15)
MIL – Junior Guerra: 3.30, 3.18, 3.25 (2, 2, 1)
NYM – Bartolo Colon: 3.44, 3.66, 4.65 (4, 4, 5)
PHI – Adam Morgan: 6.67, 5.20, 5.24 (12, 12, 10)
PIT – Juan Nicasio: 4.79, 4.56, 3.95 (8, 5, 2)
SD – Colin Rae: 4.47, 4.58, 5.03 (10, 9, 8)
SFG – Matt Cain: 5.20, 4.47, 5.17 (11, 7, 9)
STL – Mike Leake: 3.90, 4.59, 5.25 (6, 8, 11)
WAS – Joe Ross: 2.52, 3.56, 4.40 (1, 2, 4)

Hendricks ability to avoid baserunners has predictably translated to a stellar ERA, with his 2.93 mark bested only by the Nationals’ young Joe Ross. His 2.79 FIP is blowing away the field, with Guerra his closest competitor at 3.18. 10 of the 15 National league teams fifth starters that have a FIP over 4.46. DRA has a tendency to clump starters together, but Hendricks rates out well nonetheless, coming in third, behind only Guerra and Juan Nicasio.

(Rankings)/Average Ranking
CHC – Kyle Hendricks: (t-2, 3, 4, 2, 1, 2, 1, 3) – 2.31
NYM – Bartolo Colon: (t-2, 1, t-6, 1, 6, 4, 4, 5) – 3.75
WAS – Joe Ross: (t-4, t-4, t-6, 6, 5, 1, 2, 4) – 4.19
MIL – Junior Guerra: (t-10, 11, t-2, 7, 2, 2, 2, 1) – 4.75
STL – Mike Leake: (1, 2, t-9, 3, t-3, 6, 8, 11) – 5.5
PIT – Juan Nicasio: (7, 10, t-2, 5, 9, 8, 5, 2) – 6.06
LAD – Mike Bolsinger: (t-14, t-4, 3, 4, t-7, 11, 10, 5) – 7.44
SFG – Matt Cain: (t-4, 4, 7, 9, 11, 11, 7, 9) – 7.81
ATL – Williams Perez: (8, 7, 14, 12, t-3, 5, 5, 13) – 8.44
SD – Colin Rae: (6, 12, t-7, 11, 10, 10, 9, 8) – 9.19
PHI – Adam Morgan: (t-10, 8, 9, t-10, 12, 12, 12, 10) – 10.5
MIA- Justin Nicolino: (9, 9, 15, 14, t-7, 6, 11, 15) – 10.81
COL – Jorge De La Rosa: (13, 14, 1, 8, 15, 15, 15, 7) – 11
CIN – John Lamb: (12, 13, 12, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14) – 13
ARI – Archie Bradley: (t-14, 15, 13, 15, 14, 14, 13, 12) – 13.81

Certainly, not all of these categories deserve to be weighted the same. But for the purpose of this piece, I believe it suffices to make the point, as Hendricks rates out well in each and every metric you want to measure him against. He is clearly the best and most reliable fifth starter in the National League, and would easily be slotted much higher in many teams’ rotations. This also highlights just how thin most rotations are, as after Nicasio it starts to get pretty scary. The next time you start conjuring up trade proposals in an attempt to upgrade the Cubs’ starting pitching, keep in mind that you may not view Hendricks through the appropriate lens.

Lead photo courtesy Dennis Wierzbicki—USA Today Sports.