Top Play (WPA): In a game that technically lasted about five and a half hours from start to finish, there were several frustrating moments for the Chicago Cubs. However, a win is a win. After seeing Addison Russell get picked off at second base in the eighth inning immediately after hitting a leadoff double, the Cubs survived to the bottom of the ninth to get another leadoff double, this time from Kris Bryant. The next pitch from Tony Cingrani was a curveball that nailed Miguel Montero right in the back, putting two on base for Starlin Castro.
Castro took the first pitch for a ball just off the outside corner before lining one up the middle and scoring Bryant for the winning run (.196). It was a nice sigh of relief for Castro, who has struggled this year in clutch situations. With runners on base this season, Castro is hitting .220/.271/.257 in 118 plate appearances. Only two of his 24 hits have come for extra bases. The fact that it came on a line drive and not a ground ball, which has also been a problem for Castro, is just icing on the win.
Bottom Play (WPA): I’m choosing this for the bottom play because I’m angry that it even had to happen. The Cubs and Reds went to a rain delay that lasted over two and a half hours, after the game had already become official with the Cubs leading 3-1. With the amount of rain the field took, the amount of time between pitches, and the time the game started, I’m of the belief that a game should be called. Forcing bullpens to take over in the sixth inning of a game that had been more or less controlled by one team, after several hours of sitting around no less, is just awful.
But enough of my complaining. James Russell took over for Kyle Hendricks, who went five innings and gave up four hits, one earned run, zero walks and struck out seven. He was greeted by pesky Skip Schumaker, who hit a single into left field. Russell got Eugenio Suarez to two strikes before eventually giving up the game-tying two-run homer (.250). He allowed another single to Joey Votto before being pulled by Joe Maddon in favor of Justin Grimm.
As I mentioned in my game recap from yesterday, the Cubs bullpen was used heavily the last two games and really needed a strong effort from Hendricks. He had only thrown 57 pitches when the rain delay hit at the end of the fifth inning. The silver lining is that the bullpen went on to pitch four scoreless innings after Russell left the game, and the Cubs still got a victory.
Key Moment: Jason Motte pitched the top of the ninth, and was cruising along after getting Kristopher Negron to fly out and Tucker Barnhart to strike out swinging. But Chris Dominguez hit a grounder to Castro that took a strange high bounce over his head and into left field. It’s rare that you see that kind of thing, but it does happen on occasion.
The next batter was Billy Hamilton, who lined a single to center that sent Dominguez to third base. Hamilton then stole second, putting two runners in scoring position with Motte facing Schumaker. A base hit would’ve put the Cubs in a two-run hole with Aroldis Chapman looming, so to say it was a big moment in the game would be an understatement. Motte got Schumaker, who hit a weak ground ball to Anthony Rizzo to end the threat and set the stage for Castro’s walk-off in the bottom of the inning.
Trend to Watch: Bryant has been as advertised for the Cubs this season. He has a 10-game hitting streak, during which he’s batting .395/.489/.553. He hasn’t even really hit his stride as a power hitter yet, with a somewhat modest seven home runs. He’s had one minor issue at the plate, and that’s been hitting the changeup. Check out his zone profile when swinging at a changeup.
He has very low contact rates when the pitcher gets the changeup low of the zone or inside on Bryant. You’ll note the contact rates are drastically better when it’s in the zone and down, which leads me to believe that the pitcher has missed his spot. This tells me that it’s possible Bryant is timing the pitches well enough, but when they duck out of the zone he’s swinging over them.
It’s not shocking for a kid with less than 800 plate appearances in the minors to struggle with a changeup. The difference between a college changeup, a minor-league changeup, and a major-league changeup is vast in quality. Bryant is a great hitter, so as he gets older and adjusts I expect his strikeout rates will actually go down.
Coming Next: The Cubs (33-27) have one final game tonight against the Reds at 7:08pm. Jon Lester will be on the mound against Anthony DeScalfani, and the Cubs will be looking to take three out of four. Lester was roughed up in his last two starts, and DeScalfani has a career 2.43 ERA against the Cubs in three starts, throwing 18 1/3 innings and striking out 15 batters. He threw seven innings in his only start at Wrigley Field, allowing just two hits and no runs in a win.
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