Game 33 Recap: Cubs 2 Mets 1

Photo courtesy of Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Top Play (WPA): In the bottom of the ninth, nobody out, and Matt Szczur on first, Starlin Castro singled to left field to move Szczur to third, who pinch-ran for Anthony Rizzo and was running on the play (.235). Immediately after Castro’s single, the Cubs’ win expectancy jumped to 93.3 percent. With men on the corners and nobody out, the Mets found themselves in trouble of squandering a great outing from their best starter. Mets reliever Carlos Torres intentionally walked Miguel Montero to load the bases and Mets manager Terry Collins called in top bullpen arm Jeurys Familia to escape the jam. The Mets defensively brought in a fifth infielder. The infielders never even had an opportunity.

Familia notched an out after striking out Jorge Soler on a sinking fastball (-.107). Chris Coghlan came to the plate with most of the crowd on its feet. Without making contact, Coghlan coaxed a five-pitch walk to bring the winning run home (.173).

Naturally, when a player takes a walk, you figure he put together a nice at-bat. However, between Soler’s five-pitch at-bat, Coghlan saw Familia’s stuff before stepping into the box. It’s difficult to say, but Coghlan looked very confident at the plate as he waited for a strike from the big righty. Look at Soler’s sequence and then Coghlan’s:

Familia feasted on Soler’s aggressiveness on pitches outside of the zone. Coghlan made one mistake on the third pitch, failing to check his swing. Besides the momentary lapse, he patiently waited for Familia to throw a strike—which never came. Familia threw ten pitches and entered the strike zone once.

Bottom Play (WPA): Down 1-0 in the seventh inning and the leadoff man aboard, Soler worked a seven-pitch at-bat before grounding into a double play (-.158). Montero took an eight-pitch walk to bring Soler to the plate with a chance to put the Cubs on the board. However, Soler couldn’t finish the job, delivering his second twin killing of the evening. Soler’s gory statistics with runners in scoring position, less than two outs: 7-for-36, 18 K. RISP and two outs: 0-for-13, 9 K. His 2015 K-rate is 34.3 percent. No bueno.

Soler has struggled and Joe Maddon suggested as much when he slotted him in the sixth spot in the lineup. After bouncing between second and third in the lineup the entire month of April, Soler has now seen at-bats from the one, two, four, five, and six slots in the twelve games of May. (He also pinch-hit in the eight hole once.) As for tonight, yes, he struck out twice and hit into two double plays. However, the results are probably more indicative of the opposition rather than his approach. Soler saw 21 pitches in his four at-bats and other than his final at-bat with the bases loaded and nobody out, Soler displayed decent approach. As Maddon stated after the game, “He’s a monster player in the making, he’s just going through a rough patch right now.” Here’s to hoping he gets on track soon.

Key Moment: With the Mets leading 1-0 in the top half of the seventh, Cubs starter Jason Hammel gave up a one-out single to Met second baseman Dilson Herrera. With pitcher Matt Harvey at the plate, the sacrifice was on. Harvey bunted Hammel’s 0-2 pitch into the air. Rizzo charged and rather than catch the ball, he let it drop before throwing to second for the force. Castro finished the play with the throw to Addison Russell covering first base for the 3-6-4 double play. The play is indicative of Rizzo’s leadership; it took Hammel out of a jam and kept the Cubs close in a game that would be decided by a few timely plays to follow in the eighth and ninth.

The Cubs finally chased Harvey after seven innings and went to work. With one out in the bottom of the eighth, Russell went oppo with a line-drive double to right field. Dexter Fowler promptly smacked his own line drive to right, bringing Russell around to tie the score at 1-1 (.186). Unfortunately, Fowler was nabbed between first and second as the relay throw was cut-off on the infield. Nevertheless, the Mets wasted Harvey’s performance and the Cubs had the momentum.

After the Cubs bullpen duo of Zac Rosscup and Hector Rondon kept the lid on the Mets in the top of the ninth—well, mostly Rondon, since Rosscup faced just one batter and allowed him to reach on a single—Rizzo led off the Cub ninth with a single to right. Szczur, a former Villanova football star, pinch-ran for Rizzo as the tying run. Szczur was moving on the 1-0 pitch Castro roped into left, flew around the bag at second and slid headfirst into third. Szczur didn’t need his speed again—he eventually walked home with the winning run after Coghlan’s game-winning base on balls.

Trend to Watch: How is it possible that the starting pitchers have only been mentioned in passing? If this game ended 1-0 Mets, all the headlines would read: “Dark Knight Contains Masked Cubs.” Instead, Harvey’s on the wrong end of this one, despite an extraordinary performance. He threw with great command, variation, and movement, changing the eye-level of multiple batters with 97 mph heat on several occasions. He jammed hitters, induced several weak pop-ups, and fanned five of the first nine Cubs he faced and ended with nine total strikeouts. Harvey threw first strikes to 22 of 25 batters faced and 70 of his 100 pitches were strikes, while walking just two batters. Basically, Harvey devoured the Cubs lineup.

If not for his 100-pitch count after seven, he may have returned for the eighth. That was not Collins’ only managerial gaffe in this game. After pulling Harvey for Torres in the eighth—who promptly gave up two hits and a run to Russell and Fowler—Torres was left on the field for the ninth with Rizzo due first up. We already know how that decision fared.

As great as Harvey was, Hammel went nearly pitch for pitch. After pitching himself into and then out of a jam in the first that brought six Mets to the plate and a bases loaded situation before inducing a pop-up and strike out, Hammel settled in. He hit his stride and cruised from the third through the fifth with a cool 25 pitches. Overall, he struck out six, walked one, threw 21 of 30 first pitch strikes, and strikes on 68 of 97 overall.

In some respects, Hammel out-dueled Harvey on this night since he came out for the eighth. While his stuff will never will be as electric as Harvey’s, Hammel gave his guys a chance to win the game, and they took advantage of that opportunity.

When speaking to the press after the game, Maddon said, “You have to pitch better than good pitching. We did.” He wasn’t only referring to Hammel, Rosscup, and Rondon on this night, but the guys from game one and game two of this series. If the starting pitching continues to perform this way, the bullpen woes will probably go away, and we can continue to obsessively discuss the maturation of position players.

Coming Next: The Cubs look to finish a series sweep of the first place Mets as Jon Niese (1.95 ERA/3.84 FIP/5.57 DRA) faces Travis Wood (4.96/4.38/4.55) in a matinee. The Cubs can get to Niese if they continue their patient approach and try to elevate some pitches. The weather Thursday should be warmer and the wind may be blowing out. Niese is currently out-performing his peripherals by plenty and he has extreme GB-rates (60.2 percent v. career 49.5 percent). Wood has taken his last two outings on the chin, most recently Saturday in Milwaukee when he only threw four innings and gave up two home runs. He has surrendered six long flies on the season and needs to focus on keeping the ball down in the zone and his inflated 15.8-percent FB/HR rate will fall.