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Is Yoervis Medina the new Pedro Strop Project?

Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Welington Castillo has caused quite the whirlwind in the Cubs world, with news coming out Tuesday morning that he was officially traded to the Seattle Mariners for bullpen arm Yoervis Medina. The reactions amongst Cubs fans in the Twitterverse were immense, ranging from “he’s injured” to “he’s fine”, to “the trade wasn’t fair” and “this is more than enough return on Castillo” all leading up to my personal favorite: Medina could be the newest Pedro Strop Project.

Medina has no doubt had his downfalls this season, and in case you need a quick report on Medina, our very own Rian Watt wrote up an excellent report card this morning on the 26-year-old right-hander that I would highly recommend you check out.

As you notice from this piece, Medina has good stuff, but has lost two important keys in his game in 2015. He has had a slow drop off in his four-seam velocity since 2013 (totaling at just over 2 mph) and he appears to have lost confidence in the command of his secondaries. This has led to Medina throwing his fastball more often, since it’s the offering most pitchers can command best. That sounds like a viable option, except for the fact that, as mentioned just a sentence ago, his fastball velocity is down and in 2015 he is sitting around 92 mph. Not optimal speed for a fastball. However, one thing to note is that in the past Medina’s velocity hasn’t come full circle until around May, and though it is well into May already, Medina only made two major-league appearances this month before being demoted to the minors.

Of course, seeing the drop in velocity and the loss of command would scare some folks into thinking the Cubs just traded their dusty, third-string catcher for an injured reliever who could need surgery or just end up being a write off. But in a world where the Cubs recent bullpen options have been Brian Schlitter, Edwin Jackson (who is getting dusty himself), and the recently DFA’d Phil Coke, it’s worth taking the risk to try and salvage Medina. I don’t think the Cubs, who carried a bounty of catchers on their roster for a good portion of the year, would have suddenly sprung and traded Castillo without seeing the possibility for fair return. The fact that the organization held onto Castillo for this long only leads me to believe that they saw him as a trade chip for a small, but fair return (what Medina was in my opinion, for what it’s worth) and were only willing to use him when they saw the opportune moment.

The idea that the Medina Project could be the sequel to the Pedro Strop Project is intriguing, mainly because it makes sense. When Strop came to the Cubs in early July of 2013 from Baltimore, he was sporting some poor numbers. He was using his sinker way more than his fastball, and with good reason. Strop’s fastball command was poor, and when he did hit his spots inside the strike zone, he was getting pounded due to somewhat of a poor velocity for a hard pitch.

When Strop arrived in Chicago, the slash line he allowed was looking like this; .221/.346/.435 with a wOBA of .341 and a FIP of 4.71. Once Strop joined the Cubs, he saw a dramatic change in these numbers. By the end of the season, his line was down to .184/.277/.264 and his wOBA was down to .252. Strop saw his walk rate dip from 12.9 percent to just 7.4 percent, and his strikeout rate go from an already impressive 23.5 percent up to 28.7 percent. And that wasn’t a fluke—despite the few wrinkles that relief pitchers see from time to time because they too, are human, he’s kept his numbers consistent and has been an important part of the Cubs bullpen in both 2014 and 2015.

As I stated earlier, Strop struggled with similar issues as Medina. His velocity didn’t dip as much as Medina’s has, but he most definitely saw a steady rise in velocity almost immediately after joining the Cubs on all of his pitches.

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Strop’s command on his fastball in Baltimore, paired with the lower velocity, was pretty atrocious in 2013.

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But when he came to the Cubs, not only was his command better, but the fastballs he was throwing outside the zone were inducing swings, and he wasn’t getting pounded anymore when he did throw inside the zone—more than likely due to the uptick in velocity (around 1.3 mph) he saw on the pitch. Strop’s fastballs virtually never went in for a hit or out of the yard in the second half of 2013.

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Of course, the thing that makes these two situations differ is that Strop’s average fastball velocity was sitting around 96 mph when he came to the Cubs. Medina’s average velocity was only in the 94-95 range at his peak and is now sits around 92. This is fixable, but Medina isn’t likely to throw as hard as Strop, who now sits around 97 mph. I’m not saying it isn’t possible, but it could be a challenge. Again, the thing you have to remember is this trade in it’s own right was quite fair. The Cubs were getting next to no use out of Castillo at the tune of a $2.1 million, and Castillo’s trade value was questionable to most. If Medina even ends up showing flashes of being halfway decent in the Cubs bullpen, I would say the deal has worked out well.

The Cubs are smart, sending Medina to Iowa to work on some of the issues he’s having is absolutely the best move. And when he does get called to the major league club at some point, Chris Bosio and the rest of the coaching staff’s direction has more than worked out for Strop, among others, in the past.

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