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Cubbie Ks a Concern?

Photo courtesy of Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

I was doing research for a piece on the difference in strikeout rates depending on whether there were runners in scoring position or if the bases were empty, and I was struck by a number that leaped off the page at me. In addition to the Cubs bucking the trend of teams having lower strikeout rates with runners in scoring position, they were near the stratosphere in terms of strikeouts as well. This should not surprise me, since BP Wrigleyville editor Sahadev Sharma suggested a team might break strikeout records this season in a Baseball Prospectus article last January—in this case it was the Astros, but the same could be applied to this year’s North Siders as well.

Through Tuesday, the Cubs had 377 strikeouts in 38 games, a pace for over 1,600 by season’s end if it’s maintained. These are the teams with the most strikeouts in a season:

Team Year Record TB BB KO
Houston 2013 51-111 2049 426 1,535
Arizona 2010 65-97 2275 589 1,529
Chicago Cubs 2014 73-89 2118 442 1,477
Houston 2014 70-92 2084 495 1,442
Minnesota 2013 66-96 2114 533 1,430
Miami 2014 77-85 2091 501 1,419
Milwaukee 2001 68-94 2338 488 1,399
Oakland 2012 94-68 2231 550 1,387
Atlanta 2013 96-66 2186 542 1,384
NY Mets 2013 74-88 2035 512 1,384

TB=total bases

I informed Sahadev and the rest of the BP Wrigleyville crew that I’d be writing about this, which caused fellow contributor Rian Watt to ask if this was a franchise or MLB record. When I informed him it would be the most strikeouts in baseball history, he responded, “Wow. What a time it is to be alive. First 20th Century team doesn’t even crack the top 50.” The entire list can be viewed here, and indeed, the 1996 Tigers are the first team from prior to 2000 to make the list, with 1,268 strikeouts—almost 350 fewer than the Cubs are poised to reach.

I would argue any day above ground is a wonderful time to be alive, but Rian’s observation that the top 50 teams are from the past 15 years really got my attention. It’s no real secret that strikeouts are increasing, the real question is why. It’s a mix of a willingness to swing coupled with teams stocking up on power arms in relief roles that can overpower hitters late in the game. Other factors, like newer, smaller parks that entice players to swing for the fences, also play a role. This chart shows the change in walks and strikeouts per game throughout baseball history:

KO-G
I’m still not sure what caused the stark difference in approach that made strikeouts much more common beginning almost exactly in 1950—there was no expansion, no new stadium construction or extensive changes in the way the game was played. The increase during the 1960s can be attributed to the mini-Dead Ball Era, the brief reduction in the 1970s gave way to the constant increase beginning in the 1980s, which coincided with the increase in relief pitching.
What is intriguing to me is how the Cubs seem to be defying the trends by having a winning record while whiffing at such a high rate. Of the ten teams in the table, only two had winning records, and some of the other teams are among the worst in baseball in recent memory. Runs scored are almost entirely a function of the number of baserunners teams have, and runs are so correlated with wins that Bill James developed the Pythagorean Wins concept eons ago. When teams are striking out, they’re putting fewer runners on base and making it more difficult to score.
A strikeout is just another out if the bases are empty, although I will grant that putting a ball in play at least allows for the chance the defense will make an error and allow a hitter to reach base. Strikeouts are not just another out with runners on base, which was the point of the post I referenced at the beginning, and the Cubs are playing a dangerous game if the strikeouts continue to mount. They’re a young team that will probably reduce their strikeout rates with more experience, but it’s not guaranteed. In addition, imagine what happens to these numbers if Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez are called up—forget about 1,600 strikeouts, 1,700-plus could be a possibility.
I developed an unnatural fascination with Tableau data visualizations last year, and this one shows the relationship between strikeout differential (opponent strikeouts – team strikeouts) and team success—in general, teams that don’t strike out as much as their opponents fare better. It’s not written in stone, but more successful teams at least make their opponents work harder to get them out than just swing at the plate. There’s also nineteen other tabs in the data viz that look at other measures and how well they correlate with wins.
So far this year, it’s not hurting the Cubs, but that could change. As it stands now, they’re second-to-last in batted balls this year, almost 150 behind Oakland (and look what that’s done for the A’s), and their .318 BABIP is among the best in baseball and around twenty points higher than can be reasonably expected. This means when the Cubs hit, it matters, and good luck to them for as long as they can maintain that pace. At the same time, developing a little more plate discipline can’t hurt, since if they continue to display a willingness for swinging at anything, they’ll start seeing fewer and fewer good pitches to hit.
I show this table with great trepidation, it’s adapted from data at Daren Willman’s wonderful baseballsavant.com:
Team Pit Swg Str % Pit O-Swing O-Swing%
Houston 5665 649 11.5% 376 6.6%
Chicago Cubs 5901 673 11.4% 421 7.1%
Baltimore 4938 552 11.2% 367 7.4%
Colorado 5046 553 11.0% 340 6.7%
Milwaukee 5378 570 10.6% 375 7.0%
Minnesota 5528 585 10.6% 365 6.6%
San Diego 5824 615 10.6% 411 7.1%
Pittsburgh 5635 588 10.4% 390 6.9%
Seattle 5431 552 10.2% 333 6.1%
Miami 5653 568 10.0% 377 6.7%
Tampa Bay 5793 581 10.0% 346 6.0%
LA Dodgers 5614 558 9.9% 360 6.4%
Cincinnati 5482 538 9.8% 341 6.2%
Detroit 5911 578 9.8% 375 6.3%
Washington 5812 566 9.7% 386 6.6%
Toronto 5913 574 9.7% 355 6.0%
Chicago White Sox 4927 476 9.7% 305 6.2%
St. Louis 5630 541 9.6% 350 6.2%
Arizona 5447 520 9.5% 357 6.6%
San Francisco 5640 520 9.2% 341 6.0%
Texas 5769 526 9.1% 350 6.1%
NY Mets 5564 497 8.9% 314 5.6%
Kansas City 5384 472 8.8% 327 6.1%
NY Yankees 6113 533 8.7% 361 5.9%
LA Angels 5246 454 8.7% 299 5.7%
Philadelphia 5419 468 8.6% 322 5.9%
Atlanta 5280 411 7.8% 272 5.2%
Cleveland 5704 440 7.7% 281 4.9%
Boston 6047 465 7.7% 310 5.1%
Oakland 6187 451 7.3% 296 4.8%

Of the 5,901 pitches the Cubs have seen through Tuesday, 673 (11.4 percent) were swinging strikes. Of those pitches, 421 were outside the strike zone (O-Swing), and when a team shows a willingness to swing freely at bad pitches, the chances they’ll get good pitches to hit decreases significantly.

Then again, look at the teams at the bottom of the chart—none of the bottom five are having any real success this year. It’s not an absolute that more strikeouts leads to less success, and perhaps the 2015 Cubs are that special team that can overcome and defy the odds. So far, they’ve been able to do so, but it leaves little margin for when things don’t go absolutely right.

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