Photo courtesy of Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): It’s always a shame when you have to start a recap by noting the performance of an opposing player, but the cold hard numbers here leave us no choice. When Wilson Ramos came to the plate against Justin Grimm in the sixth inning, the game was tied and his team had a less than even chance to win the game. When he crossed the plate again, less than two minutes later, he had just hit a home run to the empty concrete bleachers in right field, his team was in the lead, and those two facts had combined to increase his team’s chances of winning by a whopping 19.7 percent. Womp.
Bottom Play (WPA): Moments after Kris Bryant reached base on a hit by pitch that almost wasn’t—the umps had to go to New York to get the call right—Anthony Rizzo came to the plate, with the Cubs down a run in the ninth and the crowd screaming for a walkoff. It’s possible that that got to Rizzo a little bit, because he got under a good pitch from Drew Storen and popped out to shortstop, lowering the Cubs’ chances of a win—which would soon be extinguished entirely by Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler, in succession—by a full 12 percent.
Key Moment: In his 2005 commencement address to the graduates of Stanford University, Steve Jobs argued against too much planning in life, charging that “you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards.” His point, I imagine, was that life’s important moments and experiences aren’t always obvious when you’re experiencing them, so just do what you love and see where it takes you. He was right, in general, but wrong with respect to this game.
When Michael Taylor came to the plate against Wada with the bases loaded, two out, and the score tied in the fourth inning of today’s game, everyone in the ballpark was connecting the dots looking forward. It was clear that, in that moment, the direction of the game was hanging in the balance. Chris Bosio evidently thought so too, because he came out to talk to Wada, probably to give him some helpful advice like: “You should consider striking this guy out right here.” Whatever it was, it worked, because Wada did indeed strike that guy out right there, and took a tie game into the bottom of the inning. It didn’t end up mattering to the result, but it spoke volumes about Wada’s performance today.
Trends to Watch: One of the beauties of baseball’s long schedule is that, at any given moment, there are dozens of storylines growing, flourishing, or dying. Here are a few that are just starting out. First, it’s worth noting that today was the first time David Ross has started a game not also started by Jon Lester. Given that Miguel Montero has responded extraordinarily well to the extra rest he’s gotten so far this year, it’s reasonable to be encouraged by the idea that Maddon has enough confidence in Ross’s overall game to run him out there even on days his skills as a Lester-whisperer aren’t required.
Second, how about Wada’s performance in his first two starts this year? While many observers expect the Cubs to pick up a starter at the trade deadline this season (assuming they stay in contention), and thereby push Wada out of the rotation, it never hurts to have starting pitching depth. If Wada can keep up this level of performance over his next few starts, the Cubs will have to take a hard look at whether Kyle Hendricks—who still has options left—should be the one to leave the rotation in the event of a trade.
Moving away from the battery: Don’t look now, but Soler is heating up. As the weather has warmed up, so has Soler’s hitting, after taking a little bit of flak in some corners of the media for allegedly failing to live up to its potential. With a single in four plate apperances today, Soler’s line in his last six games—dating back to May 20th in San Diego—is a positively Bryantesque .360/.360/.520. If he keeps it up, and maybe adds a little power and some walks—his last homer was all the way back on May 8—he’ll add an additional, powerful dimension to an already scary Cubs’ lineup.
Coming Next: A few weeks ago, the Cubs made a statement by sweeping the then-division-leading Mets in four games at Wrigley Field. This series (and the one that follows, against the Royals) has the potential to provide a similar statement opportunity for a team that has dreams of October baseball. Tomorrow night, the Cubs will work to bounce back against possible future Cub Jordan Zimmerman, and the day after will bring their first look at newly-minted $300 million dollar man Max Scherzer. That’s a day you’ll want to circle on your calendar, as the Cubs will counter with their own pricey ace in Lester.
Keep an eye out, as well, for Joe Maddon’s bench usage in this Washington series as he readies his team for a faceoff with the vaunted Kansas City bullpen later in the week. The Royals have made their mark in the last calendar year by shutting opponents down in the sixth inning onwards, and you can bet Maddon will be thinking up ways to keep his guys fresh as they come off the bench against the powder-blue ‘pen.