Photo courtesy of Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): This was truly one of those games that stung to lose. Jorge Soler showed some very gutsy aggressiveness (.195) to put the Cubs right back in the game, bringing the score to 4-3 and chasing Edinson Volquez. In the seventh inning, Addison Russell finished what Soler started with a no-doubter to left (.258) to tie the game 4-4. That may very well have been the top play in today’s game if the Cubs had won. Unfortunately, the Royals were not yet done and following a Mike Moustakas walk, Lorenzo Cain took advantage of a missed changeup from Pedro Strop, driving the pitch all the way to the center field wall for a long, run-scoring double (.259).
Strop’s last two appearances have not exactly been gems and it serves to highlight, once again, the early-season volatility of the Cubs bullpen.
Bottom Play (WPA): Starlin Castro stepped to the plate in the bottom of the seventh with the game tied at four and runners on first and second and two outs. Facing Kelvin Herrera with a 1-2 count, Castro whiffed on an inside fastball to end the inning (-.072). Cubs fans have become frustrated with Castro’s performance this season and the anger seems justified. He continues to make weak ground ball contact and his regular cleanup spot is currently having an adverse effect on the team, but Mauricio Rubio just tackled this subject in great depth, so I digress.
Key Moment: The Cubs, having already surrendered the go-ahead run to the Royals, turned to Justin Grimm to get them out of the eighth inning. With two outs and runners on first and second, Omar Infante came to the plate. Infante hit a soft line drive to center field and it appeared that the Cubs would get out of the jam down only one with a chance to get back the run. However, as any long-time Cubs fan can attest, these are often the moments when things go horribly, hilariously, disastrously wrong for this team. Dexter Fowler, whose defense has generally been excellent thus far this season, let the ball roll right out of his glove for an error that would cost the Cubs two runs (.174). This may not have had the largest WPA value, but it is the play most likely to stick with Cubs fans from this one.
Trend to Watch: Pedro Strop has now given up runs in both of his last two appearances and has been somewhat inconsistent throughout this season. Today’s appearance brought his FIP up to 3.53, which is still pretty good, but is not at an elite level by any means. I don’t necessarily mean to rag on Strop, but the overall lesson here is that the bullpen has been erratic for this team. It’s gotten to a point where it always seems like it’ll be someone’s day to let the game slip away and that’s difficult for fans to swallow, no question. When James Russell has been your third-best reliever statistically (0.1 WARP, 4.09 DRA), you know something needs to be done about your bullpen.
Coming Next: The Cubs (25-22) look to turn things around against the Royals (29-18) on a potentially rain-filled Saturday evening. The Cubs resident holder of the “Most Likely to Have Puns Made of His Name” title, Tsuyoshi Wada (2.70 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.10 DRA) takes the mound for the North Siders, while the Royals deploy struggling young righty Yordano Ventura (4.64 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.37 DRA).