Photo courtesy of Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): As a testament to Jason Hammel’s brilliance on the mound, the Cubs needed just three batters get to the top play. Dexter Fowler broke out of a 1-for-24 slump by smacking the game’s first pitch into center for a single. Kris Bryant followed by working an impressive walk after falling behind 0-2 in the count. Young Marlins starter Jose Urena got ahead of Anthony Rizzo 1-2, and proceeded to… make an excellent pitch:
MVP-candidate Rizzo punished Urena for throwing said excellent pitch by lining an RBI double into left-center (.138). After Jorge Soler grounded out to plate Rizzo, the Cubs enjoyed a 73.9 percent win-expectancy before the Marlins even had their chance in the home half of the first. Because of the aforementioned Hammel brilliance, the game was over.
Bottom Play (WPA): The Marlins only legitimate scoring chance came in the fourth inning. After noted speedster Giancarlo Stanton singled, stole second, stole third, and scored on Miguel Montero’s throwing error, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich both singled to give the Marlins runners on first and third with two outs. J.T. Realmuto then gave his very best effort to hit Hammel’s vicious 1-2 slider, but came up a bit short (-.061):
You may want to leave that one there next time, J.T.
Key Moment: Hammel’s strikeout of Realmuto was the only moment in the game with a “turning point” feel, as the Marlins managed just five baserunners during his stint on the mound. Hammel’s slider was simply dominant, as five of his career-best 12 strikeouts came on sliders more than 10 inches below the zone. Five more of his strikeouts came on eye-level-changing fastballs above the top of the zone. Hammel’s outing was a perfect example of pitching not only with excellent stuff, but also supreme command and outstanding pitch-sequencing.
Trends to Watch: Have you tired of reading about Hammel yet? I hope not, because I haven’t yet tired of writing about him. Over Hammel’s last four starts, he has fanned 34 batters while surrendering just two walks. Tonight’s 11 punch-outs take his season K/BB ratio to an other-worldly 9.85, placing him third in all of baseball behind just Michael Pineda and Bartolo Colon. Hammel also shows up among the league-leaders in WHIP and BB/9. There is no denying it: Jason Hammel has been dominant.
Starlin Castro power sighting! Castro had rewarded Joe Maddon’s cleanup-hitting-confidence in him by having exactly one extra-base hit in his last 16 games, and by not hitting a home run since May 8. So what does Castro do when Maddon finally relents and moves him to sixth? Well of course, he hits an awful pitch into the stands for his fourth home run.
Castro also made his 12th error in the game, booting yet another routine grounder. I would be remiss if I didn’t also link to Castro’s excellent catch to rob Dee Gordon, but you have to wonder whether Castro is feeling the pressure of Addison Russell performing at the big-league level and Javier Baez knocking on the door in Triple-A.
After a hot start to the season, Miguel Montero is just 4-for-37 in his last 12 games after going 0-for-4 Monday night. Even with the cold stretch, Montero’s OPS is hovering around .800 for the season, which the Cubs will gladly take considering the defense and intangibles he brings.
Coming Next: The Cubs look to extend their modest winning streak to three, after losing four-out-of-five previously. Kyle Hendricks (7.0 K/9, 3.76 ERA) faces Brad Hand (6.4 K/9, 4.50 ERA) on Tuesday night in the middle game of the series. Hendricks looks to build on two consecutive excellent starts, having surrendered just one run combined against the stellar offenses of Washington and San Diego. Hand will be making just his second start of the season, having worked out of the bullpen for the majority of the season.