Photo courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
If you read my recap of the Cubs’ top performers in May, you’ll know a few things going into this post. First, of course, you’ll know that yesterday was President’s Day in Palau. (Interested in reading that post yet?) But second, you’ll know that Kris Bryant was not only the top Cubs’ performer by WARP in May, he was the sixth-best performer last month in all of baseball.
Yes, Kris Bryant is really good at baseball.
There are a lot of ways in which he’s good at baseball. He hits for power: his .260 ISO over the last 30 days is 13th among all National League hitters. He hits the ball hard: at 40 percent, his hard-hit percentage is 12th among National League hitters over the same period. And, most notably, he has what appears to be an extraordinarily good, and improving, batting eye: his 14.8 percent walk rate is higher than that which he achieved at any level of the minors, save an Arizona Fall League stint with the Mesa Solar Sox in 2013, and his 30.2 percent strikeout rate is only modestly up from his marks at Double- and Triple-A.
But I submit that one of the most incredible things about Bryant this year has been the degree to which he has been patient—and remained patient—in plate appearances that start with an 0-2 count. I’ve noticed this, as I’m sure many of you have, over the course of his entire time with the Cubs, but after Bryant drew a walk in yesterday’s game against the Marlins after starting 0-2, I conducted a little research* to see how often that had happened this year overall. Here is a list, in reverse order, of the top ten players this season who have reached the most full counts after starting a plate appearance 0-2:
10. Mike Napoli, 7
9. Bryce Harper, 8
8. Alberto Callaspo, 8
7. Jhonny Peralta, 8
6. Chris Carter, 8
5. Michael Bourn, 9
4. George Springer, 10
3. J.D. Martinez, 11
2. Curtis Granderson, 11
Oh, sorry—what’s that you say? I left off number one? How could I have been so silly?! Here it is:
1. Kris Bryant, 13
Bryant has, by the way, fewer plate appearances on this young season than everyone on this list save Bourn and Callaspo, and a higher wRC+ (143) than all but Harper (217!) and Peralta (147). On a rate basis, he has the highest percentage of plate appearances that start 0-2 but end up at 3-2 of anyone in the top ten. He’s really good, folks.
But, before I leave you with that pleasant thought, let me show you one more leaderboard, this time with only the top five. And this time, I won’t do the cute “leaving Kris Bryant off” thing. It’s the natural extension of the list above: a list of those players who, in 2015, walked the most times in plate appearances that started 0-2. Joe Maddon calls it “0-2 to 4-2″, and he loves it:
5. Chris Carter, 4
4. George Springer, 5
3. Kris Bryant, 6
2. J.D Martinez, 7
1. Curtis Granderson, 7
He’s not quite at the top, but he sure is up there. And again, Granderson and Martinez have more plate appearances—over twenty more, in each case—than Bryant does. As the season wears on, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him shoot up this leaderboard, insofar as one can shoot up a leaderboard that one is already in third place on.
The point of this piece isn’t to do much more than to say that, no, your eyes aren’t deceiving you. 0-2 to 4-2 is something that’s happening more often for Bryant than it is for other hitters. For most hitters, even fairly deliberate ones, an 0-2 count is reason enough to tense up and start hacking. It’s not the smart move, but it is natural. For Bryant, it seems to be just the opposite. When he gets to 0-2, his eye locks in, and he starts looking for a pitch he can drive. Thing is, big-league pitchers, understandably wary of Bryant’s power, don’t throw him a lot of those when they’re trying to finish him off, preferring instead to fish out of the zone. To wit:
The plan with Bryant with two strikes—which is what’s shown above—seems pretty clear. Pitchers just throw down and away from Bryant; in other words, away from his power. Most hitters would be swinging there. Bryant doesn’t. He walks, when walks are offered to him, even with two strikes—and he does it more often than just about anyone else in baseball. Just one more way Kris Bryant is really good at this beautiful game.
*With lots of help, as usual, from BP’s Rob McQuown.
I’m really curious whether it is a sustainable thing. And how many such PAs it would take for it to be of importance. It it undoubtedly connected to other plate discipline factors, like swing% and contact% and many more.
It is also a funny coincidence, that three players on that list are quite similar in some aspects: Kris Bryant, George Springer and Chris Carter. All three are power-hitters with above-average K%. According to PECOTA, Christ Carter is second in the list of comparable players behind Giancarlo Stanton.
Agreed. It’s something I’m going to keep an eye on for a followup piece later in the year, perhaps during the offseason. In that piece, I’ll include some numbers about what it’s correlated to, both longitudinally and between metrics.
You’re also right about the Carter-Springer-Bryant-Stanton connection, but the more interesting set to me was on the Bourn-Callaspo-Granderson nexus, who are totally different from the first group. BP’s been doing some work on mapping similar players over on the main site recently; this seems like it’d be a good application for that.
In short, lots to think about! This’ll make for an interesting followup.