Top Play (WPA): It didn’t take long for Jon Lester to unravel, in what was his worst outing of the season, allowing six earned runs on nine hits in just five complete innings of work. Following a month in which Lester posted a 1.76 ERA, he made quick work of Marlins hitters in the first before things turned south in the bottom half of the second.
It would have been a great catch, but what turned into a big inning may have been prevented if Chris Coghlan had held onto Ichiro Suzuki’s flare single to left. It momentarily appeared like he secured the ball in the webbing of his glove, but the ball came lose as he slid across the turf, setting up runners on first and second with one down and J.T. Realmuto coming to the plate.
With a 1-2 count, Lester painted the outside corner with a fastball that looked like strike three, but home plate umpire James Hoye didn’t budge and the count eventually ran full. Realmuto took advantage of a fastball right down the middle of the plate, lacing it down the left field line for a stand-up double (.151) and giving the Marlins an early 1-0 lead .
Bottom Play (WPA): The Cubs finally had an answer for Dan Haren in the top half of the sixth, pushing two runs across on Junior Lake’s two-run home run. The blast and Lake’s shushing antics directed towards the Marlins’ dugout resulted in both benches clearing, but no punches were thrown and as such, just warnings were issued to both teams.
A few batters later, David Ross came to the plate with runners on the corners and one out. Ross would strike out on seven pitches (-.044) and Addison Russell would follow suit two batters later, striking out on five pitches from Bryan Morris to end the threat with a score of 6-3 (-.041).
Key Moment: The second inning begs us to play one of my favorite games, “what could have been?” Outside of Realmuto’s line drive, no ball in the inning was hit very hard. Not long after Coghlan’s nearly great catch and an infield single by Adeiny Hechavarria, a Starlin Castro blunder reared its ugly head when he fielded a Dee Gordon ground ball and somewhat casually threw it to first. Not the smartest of decisions when one of the major league’s fastest runners is hauling down the first-base line. The call was originally ruled an out on the field, but Marlins Dan Jennings challenged the play, and the call was reversed. Instead of a 2-0 deficit and the inning over, the Cubs were now down 3-0. Martin Prado would single in the very next at-bat, pushing the score to 4-0 before the inning ended on Giancarlo Stanton ground out.
Trend to Watch: Jon Lester allowed two home runs in this outing for the second time this season and has now allowed a home run in every start since May 6. His home-run total is now nine on the season, more than half the total he allowed in all of 2014 and we’re not even a third of the way through this campaign. His 1.2 HR/9 mark is the highest of his career, outside of his rookie season in 2007, where he posted 1.43 in 11 starts.
It seemed with today’s start that all of Lester’s mistakes to Marlins hitters came as he was behind in the count. It’s certainly not astonishing that hitters are taking advantage when they’re ahead of Lester in the count, but it’s noteworthy as it comes on the heels of a suggestion from Joe Maddon for Lester to use his curveball as a get-over, strike-one type of pitch. It will be interesting to see if Lester increases the usage of his curveball, even if it’s only early in the count. He throws the pitch roughly 15 percent of the time now, and through 11 starts this season, it’s producing the lowest opponent batting average at .184 and his second-highest whiff percentage at 17.2 percent.
Coming Next: The Cubs (27-24) take a two-game losing skid into the nation’s capital for a four-game set with the Nationals. Washington, who leads the NL East by half a game over the Mets, have also have dropped their last two, but have been impressive at home, posting a 15-9 record.
Chicago will send Jake Arrieta to the mound and Washington will counter with lefty Gio Gonzalez. Arrieta has performed pretty poorly in his last two outings, posting a 4.85 ERA, 5.73 FIP and a 36.4 percent HR/FB over 13 innings of work. Still, the strikeouts have been there for him, but his sinker—a pitch he throws more than any other—was hammered to the tune of a .733 slugging percentage. His four-seam fastball didn’t do him any favors either, as it produced entirely fly balls and a 1.333 slugging percentage. He’ll certainly have his work cut out for him against the Nationals’ order, a team that ranks in the top 10 in wRC,+ slugging percentage, ISO, and OBP against right-handed pitching.
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