Top Play (WPA): Sometimes things are just that simple. Not 15 pitches into his start Thursday night, everyone in the ballpark knew Jon Lester was in trouble, and men in Dodger blue took their leads at every base. Howie Kendrick was at the plate, and with one out in the inning I suppose there was reasonable cause to hope Kendrick would bounce into a double play—his ground ball percentage has stayed fairly constant at around 55 percent for his career. But it was not to be. Kendrick lined a double to right field, scoring Jimmy Rollins from third, and Justin Turner, the red-headed man in desperate need of the Dollar Shave Club, from second. At that point, the score was 2-0, Dodgers, in the top half of the first inning, and there was no rational reason to think the game was over. But rationality is not the hallmark of this fanbase (I include myself in that indictment, as well) and Twitter was soon filled with prognostications of doom and gloom. Turns out, they were right. Although the game would wear on for another two-plus hours, it was over in that first inning. Kendrick’s double improved the Dodgers’ chances by 16.9 percent, and they would remain near 100 percent for much of the game.
Bottom Play (WPA): It was just that kind of day for the Cubs, and there’d be a lot of contenders for this spot, if we lived in an alternate universe wherein this was a site whose editorial choices flowed from the whim and caprice of the human mind, rather than from the uncaring dictates of unfeeling numbers. And yet, we are the latter site far more than we are the former, and although Whimsy and Caprice might have led me to choose, for this spot, the play in the fourth inning where, with two outs and runners on first and second, Miguel Montero singled to left and Chris Coghlan was thrown out at the plate, Uncaring and Unfeeling require that I instead choose the play in the fifth inning where, with one out and runners on second and third, Matt Szczur struck out swinging. That play reduced the Cubs’ chances by a mere 6.1 percent, which speaks more to the plethora of other plays of equal ignominy than it does to anything in particular Szczur did wrong. Like I said, it was just that kind of day.
Key Moment: Ah, the ‘key moment’ section, otherwise known as the section where Whimsy and Caprice run wild in a crazed bacchanal of subjective choice and free will. Given this opportunity, I think I will take this opportunity to discuss in further detail that fourth inning play where Montero singled and Coghlan was thrown out. And, you know what? I’m rewatching the play right now and I’m still just as confused as I was last night about why Coghlan was sent in that situation. Here, you watch:
It just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s not like, for example, the borderline call in Game Seven of last year’s World Series, where Alex Gordon was a marginal ‘hold’ at third base on a misplayed ball to left field. Holding Coghlan here, in contrast, would have left the bases loaded with two outs after three consecutive line drives off of Dodgers’ pitcher Carlos Frias. To be fair to third-base coach Gary Jones, it took an excellent throw from Alex Guerrero to get Coghlan, but I still don’t like the odds here, especially in a four-run game. It was the moment when my hopes of winning the game went from two percent to zero.
Trends to Watch: I’ll get the obvious out of the way first: you should be watching Lester’s performance closely going forward. It’s not quite the biggest cause for concern on this team at the moment (I’d say that’s bench and back-end rotation depth), but it’s up there. If you haven’t been following my colleague Andrew Felper’s ‘Ballad of Jon Lester‘ series, you should. Besides that, the thing I’d focus on here is the recent and continued dominance of the bullpen—including its newest member, Travis Wood—and the Cubs’ continued difficulties with low-intensity matchups. I’m harping on this a lot recently, but I think it’s a real problem. The team has already shown that it can rise to the occasion when necessary; what’s less clear is that it can keep the intensity up when its opponent—be it the starter or the team, overall—isn’t quite a marquee name. With a weak second-half schedule ahead of them, they’ll need to prove they can beat up on the guys they should be beating up on. It’s not clear, at present, that they can.
Coming Next: Speaking of guys who they should be beating up on … that description doesn’t apply to the next series the Cubs enter into. You try not to hype series’ up too much going into them, but if I were to pick one series this month for the Cubs to sweep, I’d have to pick this one against the Cardinals. The nature of the current wild-card format means that anything except a division title has leagues less value than that title, and earns the Cubs only a one-game chance to advance to the NLDS. I don’t want that, my nerves don’t want that, and I’m sure the Cubs don’t want that. To save us all a lot of heartburn, then, it would be nice to pick up three wins on the Cards this time around. Besides the ground gained, it would also serve as a nice statement that these Cubs aren’t to be messed around. The series begins this evening in St. Louis, with he-of-the-minimum-salary John Lackey on the mound. Lackey has had himself a pretty workmanlike season, posting a 4.01 DRA and a 96 cFIP. The Cubs counter with Jake Arrieta, who spun himself a complete-game gem his last time out. It should be a pretty fun game, and a good series. Strap in, we’re going for a ride.
Lead photo courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports