Top Play (WPA): I wasn’t around for the 1980s, so I can’t say for sure, but I’m pretty confident in saying that this was a pretty ’80s game, in that it was a blowout. (Pause for laughter.) Anyway, moving right along. Into the bottom half of the fourth inning, it actually looked somewhat possible that the Cubs might sneak away with this one. The score was tied at one, and EmergencyStarterTM Donn Roach had limited the damage to that point. Sure, the Cubs had hit into double plays to end three consecutive innings, but that can happen to anyone, right? Point is, the game still looked within reach. And then Yadier Molina came to the plate, doubled Jason Heyward in from first, and started a four-run inning that put the game, first mentally and later statistically, entirely out of reach. Molina’s double increased the Cardinals’ chances by 16.7 percent, and was the first of three Cardinals’ plays that inning to clear the ten percent marker. Like I said: an ’80s game.
Bottom Play (WPA): Well, here’s the upside: the worst play of the game was also made by a Cardinal—in fact, the same Cardinal. Baseball, man. Here’s what happened: before his fourth-inning double, Molina came to the plate with the bases loaded in the first inning and just one out. It was, one imagines, the kind of scenario that makes Cardinals’ fans smile: the bases juiced against an emergency call-up. And yet, disappointment comes to gods as well as men. Molina hit a chopper to third-baseman Kris Bryant, who promptly turned two, nabbing Jhonny Peralta in the process. Because there isn’t an awful lot to be happy about in this game, why don’t we take this opportunity to watch a video of that moment. Here it is:
Key Moment: I suppose I’d have to say that the key moment of this game was every moment where the Cubs failed to cash in on runners in scoring position. It’s a trend I hate to belabor, because I’m not sure it’s a repeatable skill and so to some degree I’m just harping on bad luck, but the last few days have me frustrated. Going 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position just isn’t going to get the job done over the long term. For what it’s worth, manager Joe Maddon thinks it’s just tiredness (quoted by ESPN.com): “More than anything I think it’s fatigue with [Bryant and Addison Russell, both of whom had bad days at the plate]. They’re young, they’re playing a lot, they’re getting close to the break. There’s all kinds of subplots working there.” To which I say: maybe. But that’s no excuse; everyone else is tired too. It’s everyone’s responsibility to stay on top of their game, and to their credit, it sounds like that’s what they’re trying to do. “I’m not tired at all,” said Bryant in the same ESPN.com article, “I’m 23 years old. Maybe ten years from now I’ll be tired around this time.” Good. It may not be true (Bryant has struggled with flu-like symptoms in recent weeks), but it’s the right attitude to take, as long as it’s not applied to excess (i.e. it’s good to believe you’re not tired, but don’t run yourself ragged for no reason).
Trends to Watch: Well, I’ve already touched on the key trend to watch here, for the team as a whole, and that’s success with runners in scoring position. On an individual level, however, it is worth keeping an eye on the performance of the Cubs’ young stars. For many of them, it’s the first time in their career they’ve had to play this many games, in this many days, in front of anything approximating the crowds and pressure they’re seeing on a daily basis this year. That’ll wear on anyone. Remember when the Cubs signed David Ross, and said he was ‘veteran presence’? This is why. He, and the other Cubs’ veterans, will play a key role in keeping everyone motivated, fresh, and ready to go as the season wears on. Again, tiredness is not an excuse; it’s the team’s responsibility to stay ready. But this Cubs team is more prepared than those of recent years to be ready as they should be.
Coming Next: Coming next? Why, the finale of this nightmarish series! This evening, the Cubs’ Jason Hammel, who has pitched extremely well this year (2.65 ERA, 3.45 DRA) will take the mound against the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez (2.89, 3.69) as the Cubs look to salvage something of this much-heralded series against what we can now say, unquestionably, is the National League’s best team. Looking past that, as I dearly desire to do, the Cubs fly north to Citi Field to take on the Mets, who’ll start (among others) Jon Niese against them. That’s interesting primarily because, yesterday, rumors flew briefly that the Cubs have been inquiring about Niese’s availability. Take that with a heaping dollop of salt, because I’m guessing the Cubs’ are inquiring about pretty much everyone’s availability these days, but there you have it. That first game of the Mets series, by the way, is also the Cubs’ last of June, and it sure would be nice to finish what has actually been a pretty good month on a winning note. Only time will tell. Onwards.
Lead photo courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports