Top Play (WPA): The trouble with unitary categories like ‘single’, ‘double’, ‘triple’, and ‘home run’ is that it’s very easy to believe that they tell you more than they do. When you hear that a player hit a double, for example, your mind probably immediately fills with visions of well-struck line drives to the gap in left-center, when in fact all that that information tells you for sure is that the player hit the ball somewhere, the ball wasn’t misplayed by a fielder at any point in the play, and the player eventually ended up on second base. All this is to say that Todd Frazier’s first-inning ‘double’ off of Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks was garbage. Frazier, who has prodigious power (see: Home Run Derby, 2015), somehow managed to loop Hendricks’ 16th pitch of the inning just over the head of Anthony Rizzo, scoring Brandon Phillips from third and Jason Bourgeois from second and putting the Reds in front 2-0. Both players, by the way, had reached on infield ‘singles.’ In any event, that Frazier double, and its resulting runs, improved Cincinnati’s chances of winning the game by 13.3 percent.
Bottom Play (WPA): Shortly after the Kyle Schwarber show put on its second performance of the day (an RBI single to center, scoring Addison Russell), Anthony Rizzo came to the plate with a chance to tie the game. Schwarber, courtesy of his single, was at first, and Chris Coghlan stood at third by virtue of an earlier infield single to third base. Rizzo took the first, third, and fourth pitches for balls. The second pitch from Reds starter Mike Leake was fouled, which meant that that the fastball he subsequently lined on one hop to a shifted shortstop for an inning-ending double play could be accurately described as both ‘a disaster for the Cubs’ and ‘a 3-1 pitch.’ The Cubs’ chances declined by 10.3 percent on that play, and never recovered.
Key Moment: When the game entered the bottom half of the seventh inning, it was still vaguely in reach for the Cubs. Sure, they were down 5-1, but they’d been hitting the ball hard all day and Leake had to leave the game sometime, right? All they had to do was get through the Reds’ half of the inning, and let the bats get to work. And indeed, recently-recalled Yoervis Medina swiftly retired the first two Reds. Then, disaster. The next six consecutive Reds reached, and by the time the inning finally drew to a close the visiting team was down by eight. It’s hard for me to pinpoint a particularly disastrous moment in the sequence, but because I am contractually obligated* to do so, I’ll direct your attention—for the only time, I promise—to Medina’s bases-loaded walk of Skip Schumaker (career walk rate: 7.9 percent) to begin the scoring sequence and remind me uncomfortably of LaTroy Hawkins.
Trends to Watch: Despite the recent infusion of Schwar-magic, this is a still a Cubs lineup that is struggling, really struggling, to score runs. Quick, how many of the Cubs’ 20 runs since the All-Star break have been either driven in or scored by Schwarber? The answer is seven, and that’s despite the 22-year-old getting just three starts in that time span. Today, at least, hitters appeared to be squaring pitches up, which might be a sign that a change is around the corner, but it’s still highly dispiriting to see this offense, still brimming with talent, produce the lowest batting average in the game (.218) over the last 30 days.
Coming Next: The games are flying thick and fast these days. Beginning less than 24 hours after their 13-inning marathon ended shortly after midnight local time, the Cubs’ doubleheader today will give June 22, 2015 the possibly unique distinction of featuring within its temporal confines the conclusions of three separate Cubs games. The nightcap will feature the pitching efforts of Dallas Beeler (96 cFIP, 56 DRA-), for Chicago, and Tony Cingrani (96, 101), for Cincinnati. If you were surprised by Beeler’s excellent DRA- just now, you can join me over here. His 3.60 ERA has, apparently, been somewhat higher than he deserves to have achieved (2.33 DRA), although one imagines that longer stretches in the big-leagues will bring the two numbers into closer harmony with one another. After tonight’s game, the Cubs will take a well-deserved rest on Thursday before returning to Wrigley to take on the Phillies in a three-game set. Starting for Philadelphia on Saturday? Some guy called Cole Hamels.
Lead photo courtesy of David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports