Top Play (WPA): It’s always good to see Anthony Rizzo make hard contact with pitches he can (and should) handle. It’s even better when said contact leads to home run blasts, as was the case Wednesday afternoon when Rizzo took an 0-1 fastball and dinged it off the right-field foul pole, giving the Cubs a 3-0 lead with two outs in the bottom half of the third (.185). The home run was significant not only for the cushion it gave Jon Lester, but it broke Rizzo’s homer-less streak, one that dated back to July 7th. Hopefully for the Cubs, it’s the swing that gets Rizzo back on the power track. For the month of July, the lefty slugger is has seen his hard-contact rate drop significantly, from 39.6 percent in June down to 23.9 percent.
Bottom Play (WPA): In a game where the Cubs scored all of their runs on the backs of home run balls, Dexter Fowler’s failed attempt at a stolen base in the bottom half of the fifth (-.032) might be more appropriately labeled as “too aggressive with the heart of the order coming up,” rather than the Bottom Play. The failed attempt was only Fowler’s sixth this season, as he’s been successful in 16-of-22 attempts. If the season were to end today, his 73 percent success rate and 16 steals would be the best percentage and third highest total of his career. In 2013, Fowler stole 19 bags with a success rate of 65 percent and his best total came in 2008, when he swiped 27 bags with 72 percent success in Colorado.
Key Moment: After sending Charlie Blackmon back to the dugout on a swinging strikeout in the top of the first, speedy Jose Reyes reached on an infield single. With Arenado at the plate and an early threat looming, David Ross threw out Reyes on a stolen base attempt. While David Ross is among the top active leaders in caught stealing percentage (currently 5th at 36.44 percent), Lester’s issues holding runners on and Reyes’ success on the base paths are well documented, and he entered the game 16-of-18 this season. Not only was Reyes kept out of scoring position, the play allowed Lester to settle in and focus on Arenado. Lester would go on to strike out the next six batters, recording seven of the first eight outs in the game by way of the strikeout.
Trends to Watch: Will Rizzo’s blast mark the start of another one of his hot streaks like the one we saw end in early June? The Cubs’ offensive struggles certainly can’t be pinned on Rizzo’s shoulders alone, but he is certainly a major catalyst to this offense, and his July numbers have been somewhat of an eye sore. His ISO and slugging percentage for the month currently sit at .062 and .272 respectively, mammoth drops from the production we saw from him in May (.324, .638) and June (.269, .538). Those numbers certainly weren’t sustainable, and he has fallen victim to a few strokes of bad luck, as suggested by his .242 BABIP in July, but the strikeout percentage (15.8 percent) is up four percentage points in the wrong direction, too.
The good news for Rizzo is that he has pretty favorable matchups in the Cubs’ four-game set in Milwaukee this weekend, facing Jimmy Nelson, Taylor Jungmann, Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse in the park producing the most home runs and second most runs per game in 2015.
Coming Next: After grabbing a victory in the rubber match today, the Cubs are packing up and venturing out on every tired athlete’s favorite road trip—the shortest one! Jake Arrieta (2.61 ERA, 2.60 FIP) will be on the bump night one in Milwaukee and the Brewers will counter with big right-hander Jimmy Nelson (3.97, 4.09). Since the calendars flipped over to July, Arrieta has been incredibly sharp, posting a 1.72 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 9.33 K/9 and a 52.9 percent ground ball rate.
Lead photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports