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GAME 105 RECAP: CUBS 5 PIRATES 0

Top Play (WPA): The Cubs grabbed the lead early, added to it along the way, and never were in any serious danger of losing this game. Given how often the Cubs have been involved in nail-biters, it was nice to pick up a drama-free victory over a direct competitor for a Wild Card spot. This lack of high-leverage situations generally left the game without many moments that could be said to have fundamentally altered the game. Any one of the runs scored in this game could probably be chosen as a “Top Play,” but statistically, it was the two-out, man-on-third Starlin Castro double (.106) in the top of the third inning that allowed Anthony Rizzo to score, making the game 2-0 in favor of the Cubs. Castro also had another run-scoring double with runners on first and second and one out in the top of the fifth. Castro’s struggles have been well-documented, and the best possible hope for the Cubs is to have him reclaim even a tiny glimmer of the hitter he used to be.

Bottom Play (WPA): Strangely enough, considering Castro’s instrumental role in this Cubs win, he also provided the worst play, statistically speaking. Castro came to the plate in the top of the first inning with the bases loaded and one out. The Cubs had already scored one run on a Jorge Soler walk (.093) and had an opportunity to really break the game open. Instead, Castro grounded into a fielder’s choice (-.066), as former Cub Aramis Ramirez made the throw home to get the force out on Kris Bryant. The Cubs ended the inning without scoring another run and, if there wouldn’t have been several more very good scoring chances, this one could have come back to haunt the team.

Key Moment: Jake Arrieta wasn’t perfect in this game, but he was still masterful. The righty went seven innings and allowed no runs, two hits, and three walks, fanning five. There was one spot of potential trouble, though, in the seventh inning. Already approaching 100 pitches, Arrieta suddenly found himself in a tight spot after a Starling Marte single (.017) and an Andrew McCutchen walk put runners on first and second with no outs in the inning. Aramis Ramirez recorded the first out on a very hard hit line drive to left field (-.030), which did little to assuage any fears that Arrieta was slipping. It would have been easy for Joe Maddon to go to the bullpen at that moment, but he instead trusted that his ace would find a way out of the inning. Arrieta dug deep and was able to strike out Jung-Ho Kang (-.021) and induce a weak grounder to first from Neil Walker (-.015).

Also, there was THIS play to end the game:

Trend to Watch: This has been written about quite a bit recently, but it bears repeating, especially after tonight’s game. Dexter Fowler did not have a particularly inspiring night at the plate against the Pirates, but he still drew a walk, extending his on-base streak to 18 games. During that span, Fowler has hit .333/.475/.476. Fowler continues to be on a roll, and is looking more and more like the leadoff hitter the Cubs thought they were getting this offseason. It’s a reasonably obvious point that when Fowler is getting on base, the Cubs are more likely to win, because they are more likely to score runs. Still, it’s a good idea to point out how good he’s been, and to use this space to hope he continues to pull his numbers closer to his career norms.

Coming Next: The Cubs (58-47) will look to win their seventh straight game and move to only two games back of the Pirates (61-44) for the first Wild Card spot. Recent trade deadline acquisition Dan Haren (3.42 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 4.06 DRA) makes his Cubs debut, while the Pirates counter with their second straight mediocre lefty starter in Jeff Locke (4.21 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.68 DRA).

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