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These Old(-Er) Cubs: Veteran Presence on the 2015 Cubs

It takes a village, or so people always say. This is, of course, certainly true of the 2015 Cubs. The team is hot right now, and the focus has been on the rookie group of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, and Kyle Schwarber. There’s no question that the youngest members of the Cubs have given the team a real boost, and in the cases of Bryant and Schwarber, have played like absolute superstars. Every good team, though, must fill in around its young talent with veterans who can provide experience, wisdom, and established standards of performance. This is, at least, the conventional knowledge, and I can’t honestly say I disagree with it.

Even as the perception of young players has improved in the modern era, it’s still remained important for competitive teams to fortify their rosters with experienced, productive veterans. The 2003 Cubs undertook this by adding Kenny Lofton at the deadline, and the 2007 Cubs did the same with their acquisition of Jason Kendall, while the 2008 Cubs traded for Rich Harden. The 2015 Cubs went a step further by trading for Dexter Fowler and Miguel Montero and signing Jason Motte, Chris Denorfia, Jason Hammel, and Jon Lester in the offseason, then trading for Tommy Hunter and Dan Haren at the deadline. Given that knowledge, I want to take a look at how some of the Cubs’ older veterans have performed thus far and what they are likely to contribute down the stretch.

David Ross, 38, C
Preseason PECOTA Projection:
.218/.291/.377, 0.4 WARP
Current Numbers: .189/.301/.283, 0.2 WARP
Rest-of-Season PECOTA Projection: .215/.298/.399, 0.4 WARP

Ross was signed to a two-year, $5 million contract this offseason to serve as the Cubs’ backup catcher. This puzzled some Cubs fans, as the team had recently traded for Miguel Montero, already had Welington Castillo on the roster, and had Kyle Schwarber waiting in the wings as a potential catching option as well. Castillo has generally graded out poorly as a pitch-framer, an area in which Montero and Ross excel, but has become a very well-regarded offensive catcher. The Cubs’ brass insisted that Ross was not signed to be the personal catcher of Jon Lester, but he’s started almost exclusively on days Lester has pitched.

I’m not criticizing this arrangement at all, though. Ross’s best days, from an offensive perspective, are long behind him. The 38-year-old catcher currently sports a .231 TAv, good for 0.1 BWARP. However, Ross ranks 18th overall by BP’s “Framing Runs Added by Count,” and if you adjust this per framing chance, he comes out looking even better. Castillo, by comparison, is 59th overall and is in a virtual tie with Kyle Schwarber. Castillo has been the subject of intense debate in Cubs fandom, as he’s posted a .291/.375/.610 line ever since joining the Diamondbacks. It’s important to remember that while this could be a legitimate breakout for Castillo, he’s not going to slug .610 the rest of the way out, and he’s never slugged higher than .418 in any season where he’s had at least 100 plate appearances. Even so, Kyle Schwarber has been arguably better at the plate than Castillo, and is much more likely to maintain strong batting numbers than Castillo is.

Placed in that context, it’s easy to see why the Cubs love having Ross on the team. He provides enormous value as a framer, which no doubt aids the pitching staff. If we are to assume that he came as a package deal with Lester (a very tenuous “IF,” to be sure), then I think every Cubs fan would agree he’s been worth his contract value and some. Moreover, Ross is invaluable due to the things we cannot necessarily quantify. His experience and clubhouse presence help to keep the team loose when things aren’t going so well, and likewise help the team remain focused when they’re on a roll, as they currently are. 

Chris Denorfia, 35, OF
Preseason PECOTA Projections:
.262/.316/.379, 0.8 WARP
Current Numbers: .284/.321/.361, 0.4 WARP
Rest-of-Season PECOTA Projections: .264/.317/.397, 0.6 WARP 

Denorfia began the season on the DL, forcing the Cubs to cycle through a variety of roster constructions that saw the likes of Matt Szczur, Junior Lake, and everyone’s favorite player Mike Baxter serving as fourth outfielders. Denorfia was signed in the offseason to a one-year, $2.6 million contract to serve as the righty platoon partner to Chris Coghlan in left field. Coghlan has since emerged as a uniquely valuable utility man and so Denorfia’s role has changed a bit, but he’s still proved useful to the 2015 Cubs. He may be even more so, down the stretch, as Maddon will be playing platoon splits even closer in an attempt to maximize every plate appearance.

Denorfia has not been amazing, but he’s been serviceable, and that’s been plenty good for the 2015 Cubs. His .284/.321/.361 line is miles ahead of what could be expected from anyone behind him, and he allows Coghlan and Soler to get rest occasionally, which is also good for the team. He’s also played pretty steady outfield defense and allows the Cubs to optimize their lineup against lefties. Denorfia is, in essence, the ideal fourth outfielder for a competitive team. 

Denorfia’s role continues to evolve, as Kyle Schwarber has recently entered the outfield mix, but he’ll continue to get playing time for this team against lefties. He’s got experience, a decent bat, and an above-average glove, and that’s really all that can be asked of him. Denorfia is one of several players who ultimately gives Joe Maddon versatile options for his lineups. He is flexible enough to even play center field in a pinch, which makes him the only other person on the active roster truly capable of filling in at the position, so he is an integral piece of the Cubs’ roster down the stretch. 

Miguel Montero, 32, C
Preseason PECOTA Projections:
.247/.332/.379, 1.9 WARP
Current Numbers: .230/.340/.387, 1.4 WARP
Rest-of-Season PECOTA Projections: .245/.332/.391, 1.0 WARP 

Almost as soon as the offseason began, the Cubs were at the center of a multitude of rumors involving catcher trades. Backstops such as Yasmani Grandal, Derek Norris, and Miguel Montero were purported to be available and the Cubs were expressing interest in all of them. This was in addition to an earnest pursuit of Russell Martin in free agency. The Cubs missed out on Martin, as he chose the Blue Jays, but they were able to work out a deal with the Diamondbacks to bring Montero to Chicago in return for pitching prospects Zack Godley and Jefferson Mejia. Both pitchers have real potential, but neither is a sure thing, and most would likely agree it was a small price to pay for the consistency of a good veteran catcher.

Montero returned to the lineup Saturday after having been out injured since July 11th, and found himself in a three-catcher rotation that had not existed when he went on the DL. Kyle Schwarber came up to the majors in Montero’s absence and has put on a show ever since to the tune of a .370 TAv. The Cubs have begun using Schwarber in left field, especially against righties, to vastly improve the offense and to make room for Montero at catcher. This seems to be the optimal configuration against righties, given Montero’s platoon splits. Add all of this to the fact that Miggy is fifth overall in BP’s “Framing Runs Added by Count,” and you get a hugely valuable player.

As discussed by our own Brett Taylor, Montero had been struggling at the plate for nearly two months after a torrid start to his season. Whether working as part of a three-catcher rotation again helps him remains to be seen. Regardless, Miggy will continue to be valuable to the Cubs, given his defensive capabilities and his clubhouse presence. Some have argued that the Cubs would be better off trading Montero this offseason and using Schwarber as the primary catcher. I would argue that this is foolish, as Miggy is by far the best framer on this team, and is such a fun player to have around that it would be difficult to see him go.

***

The Cubs’ veterans have mostly been ignored due to the overwhelming amount of press surrounding the rookies. In spite of this, they’ve continued to be major contributors to the overall success of this team, and will be going forward as well. The playoff race is likely to remain a tight one until the very end, and so having experienced guys in the clubhouse to help keep things loose will be integral to the Cubs’ performance. The importance of this cannot be quantified, but all the same, it is absolutely necessary.

Lead photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

 

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