State of the NL Central: Cardinals and Pirates

With six weeks left in the season, there is little doubt that the NL Central is MLB’s best division. Even after the Cubs’ recent three-game losing streak, the division is home to three of baseball’s best four teams by winning percentage in the Cardinals (77-43), Pirates (71-47), and Cubs (67-51) (the other best team is the Kansas City Royals at 72-46). Each of those teams is likely to make the playoffs, although the Pirates and Cubs are looking increasingly likely to face off in the NL Wild Card game. Currently, the Cardinals lead the Pirates by 4.5 games, and the Pirates, in turn, lead the Cubs by four games for the first NL Wild Card spot. The winner of the Wild Card game would likely face St. Louis (or Pittsburgh, possibly) in the NLDS, so head-to-head play will be very important as the season winds down and the playoffs get started.

I assume that BP Wrigleyville readers are well-acquainted with the Cubs’ situation, but with their fate so intimately aligned with the Cardinals and Pirates, I thought it would be worth looking at both of these teams’ rosters, health, and projections to get a better idea of where they stand as we brace for a pennant race.

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St. Louis Cardinals:

Projected Lineup (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’ player projections page):

1. Kolten Wong – 2B – .260 TAv (rest of season projected)
2. Matt Carpenter – 3B – .291 TAv
3. Matt Holliday – LF – .305 TAv
4. Jhonny Peralta – SS – .269 TAv
5. Jason Heyward – RF – .292 TAv
6. Yadier Molina – C – .274 TAv
7. Brandon Moss – 1B – .283 TAv
8. Randall Grichuk – CF – .266 TAv

Projected Rest of Season AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .251/.319/.400 (.265)

This is the basic projected lineup structure of the division-leading Redbirds, and it looks, well, pretty good. When and if the Cardinal do actually get a chance to field this lineup, it will certainly be a pretty daunting and tiring lineup for opposing pitchers to face. In the Carpenter/Holliday/Peralta/Heyward/Grichuk quintet, the Cardinals have a truly dangerous middle of the order, and Wong, Molina, and Moss do not tend to be easy outs either.

Here’s the problem for St. Louis: currently, Holliday is expected to be out until at least mid-September, and Grichuk was just placed on the 15-day DL for a right elbow strain with no clear timetable for return. Heyward also left Monday’s game with hamstring tightness, and though he is not expected to miss much time, his absence from Tuesday’s game showed how reed-thin the Cardinals lineup actually is right now. On Tuesday, Mark Reynolds, Tommy Pham, and Stephen Piscotty took the lineup spots of Holliday, Grichuk, and Heyward respectively, forcing Brandon Moss to play left field, and hit fourth in an order that begins to look sparse. Reynolds is an OK known commodity and Pham and Piscotty are good young players, but to expect them to replicate the production of Holliday and Grichuk as regulars is probably wishful thinking. Even for the Cardinals.

Health, then, is the reason that despite a very good ideal lineup, the Cardinals are expected to post only a mediocre .265 TAv down the stretch. (For context, the Cubs are projected to have a TAv of .273, and the Phillies are projected to be worst in the league with a .253 TAv.) BP projects Holliday to get only 55 percent of remaining left field at-bats, while Grichuk should only get 60 percent in center. And even this might be a bit optimistic based on their timetables. There is a scenario in which the Cardinals get healthy right as they head into October, but if any more setbacks or other injuries occur, this could be a weakness for the current best team in baseball. Keep an eye on this as we head down the stretch.

Rotation: 

1. Lance Lynn (R) – 2.95 ERA/4.15 DRA/90 cFIP
2. Michael Wacha (R) – 2.85 ERA/3.19 DRA/92 cFIP
3. John Lackey (R) – 2.87 ERA/3.98 DRA/105 cFIP
4. Carlos Marinez (R) – 2.59 ERA/4.53 DRA/93 cFIP
5. Jaime Garcia (L) – 1.57 ERA/2.86 DRA/99 cFIP

Notice anything? Well, first and most obviously, the Cardinals rotation has been unbelievably good this year. Each of the five starters in their Adam Wainwright-less rotation has maintained an ERA below 3.00 into late August, an incredible and extremely unlikely feat. The Cardinals, as a team, have a 2.57 ERA. The Mets are second in MLB with a 3.20 staff ERA. No one else is even close. This explains why the Cardinals currently have the best record in baseball. What it does not do, however, is predict the Cardinals’ rest of season performance. And what I noticed is that despite good depth in the rotation, the Cardinals are not projected to be nearly as dominant from here on out.

As you can see, no Cardinals starter is projected by the prescriptive cFIP statistic to have a performance more than 10 percent better than league average down the stretch. So while the Cardinals rotation is full of good pitchers, none of them are nearly as dominant as their results this year have so far shown. Each has had his stats bolstered by a team 80.8 percent strand rate (this is historically high and likely unsustainable—the next best team is the Orioles at 76.1 percent), and a low .288 BAPIB against. The Cardinals’ rotation as a whole gets a cFIP of 96, which is good, but only good for ninth-best in baseball. For context, the Cubs are actually better, with a 91 cFIP that is second in MLB. Lackey and Garcia, in particular, have out-pitched their peripherals all season, with Lackey expected by cFIP to actually be five percent below league average. Some regression, then, will likely occur down the stretch—how much, when, and whether it will matter to the Cubs is still to be determined.

Bullpen, Bench, and Defense:

A good bullpen is vital as you head towards the postseason, and the Cardinals have one of the best. Led by closer Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis’ bullpen has an ERA of 2.24. Their bullpen cFIP of 96 expects a great deal of regression, but still, this is not a place to look for a Cardinals weakness. Behind Rosenthal, the Redbirds run out a deep and solid ‘pen, including righties Jordan Walden, Seth Maness, Jonathan Broxton, and Steve Cishek along with lefties Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist. None of these pitchers are unhittable or absolutely dominant—none are projected to have an ERA under 3.00 or over 3.80 down the stretch—but Cardinals manager Mike Matheny feels comfortable running most of them out in any situation (and rightfully so). Here is where the Cardinals might have their most concrete advantage over the Cubs, who currently only have two or three truly trustworthy bullpen arms.

The Cardinals are currently using much of their bench depth in their starting lineup, so let’s see who is left. Peter Bourjos and Jon Jay can be expected to fill in often as the Cardinals’ fourth and fifth outfielders—they don’t hit well, but their excellent speed and defense are useful in close games. The immortal Pete Kozma (projected .217 rest of season TAv) is the Cardinals’ utility infielder, which I am OK with. Beyond that, the Cardinals are pretty thin. As Holliday and Grichuk return to the lineup, however, players like Piscotty and Reynolds will return to the bench, where they are much more situationally useful.

The Cardinals never lack for defense, and with a deep and versatile roster, this is another place where they shine. The Holliday injury actually likely helps them here, as players like Pham and Bourjos get more playing time in his stead. BP projects them to be well above league average down the stretch defensively: 5.4 Fielding Runs Above Average for their final 45 games.

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Pittsburgh Pirates:

1. Gregory Polanco – RF – .268 TAv (rest of season projected)
2. Neil Walker – 2B – .279 TAv
3. Andrew McCutchen – CF – .320 TAv
4. Starling Marte – LF – .284 TAv
5. Jung-ho Kang – SS – .269 TAv
6. Aramis Ramirez – 3B – .274 TAv
7. Pedro Alvarez – 1B – .273 TAv
8. Francisco Cervelli – C – .266 TAv

Projected Rest of Season AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .253/.316/.398 (.267)

This Pirates lineup has scored the most runs of any team in the NL Central this year, with 501. Anchored by the incredibly valuable McCutchen, who has put together a TAv of .331 and a WARP of 4.1 so far this year, Pittsburgh’s lineup has enjoyed solid production from top to bottom for most of the year. Unheralded offensive regulars like Walker (2.2 WARP) and Cervelli (.295 TAv as a catcher, albeit with an unsustainably high .372 BABIP) have stepped up, and under-the-radar international signee Kang has put together a season that has put him firmly in the NL Rookie of the Year discussion. And the offense’s only notable injury—super-utility man Josh Harrison—might be back by early September. With the reacquired Ramirez manning third, the returning Harrison will likely be able to augment the Pirates lineup in creative ways that manager Clint Hurdle couldn’t have imagined earlier in the season. This lineup is not overwhelming, but it is solid, and it should be in pretty good shape as we head towards October.

Rotation:

1. Gerrit Cole – 2.61 ERA/3.54 DRA/82 cFIP
2. Francisco Liriano – 3.19 ERA/3.02 DRA/80 cFIP
3. J.A. Happ – 4.64 ERA/5.18 DRA/103 cFIP
4. Charlie Morton – 4.36 ERA/4.72 DRA/110 cFIP
5. Jeff Locke – 4.31 ERA/4.37 DRA/109 cFIP

This rotation is built very differently than that of the Cardinals. While the Cardinals have a group of five consistently solid starters, the Pirates’ staff is very top-heavy. Cole has been, and is projected to be, one of the top pitchers in the National League. He, along with Liriano, make up a daunting top of the rotation for Pittsburgh. Liriano is actually in a position where his DRA is lower than his ERA, and his cFIP of 80 suggests that he has been and should be better than his already very good performance this year. When they reach the postseason, the Pirates will have two very viable options at the front of their arsenal.

The Pirates’ biggest weakness, though, lies in the back of their rotation. A.J. Burnett, who had a 3.06/3.10/4.22 ERA/FIP/DRA line through the first half of the year, went down with an inflamed right elbow right before the trade deadline. Pittsburgh tried to replace him with in a trade for J.A. Happ from Seattle, but Happ has, so far, been unable to fill in effectively (although he was good in his Wednesday start against Arizona). Morton and Locke are solid as back of the rotation pitchers, but going to either of them for multiple playoff starts would be nerve-wracking. The Pirates as a team have a cFIP of 96, but any more pitching injuries or ineffectiveness could sink them pretty quickly. Burnett is expected to be back sometime in September, but it is hard to know how truly effective he will be, especially with the mileage on his arm. In the meantime, the Pirates rotation will miss him.

Bullpen, Bench, and Defense:

There is no weakness in the Pirates bullpen, either. Once again, this is probably the facet where they match up most favorably with the Cubs. Closer Mark Melancon, who didn’t allow an earned run between May 15th and August 5th, is projected to post a 2.79 ERA down the stretch, while righty Joakim Soria and lefties Antonio Bastardo and Tony Watson join him with sub-3.00 ERA projections. With those four and decent depth guys like Arquimedes Caminero and Jared Hughes, the Bucs boast a good and deep bullpen that could compete with any other unit in October.

Pittsburgh’s bench, though, leaves a bit to be desired. Andrew Lambo is a decent lefty bat without much positional value, Sean Rodriguez is a good infielder but a below average hitter, Michael Morse is a decent bat with no fielding ability whatsoever, and Travis Ishikawa is mostly just below average. Harrison’s return will mean a lot to this bench if he is effective, but in the meantime the Pirates are a bit thin.

The Bucs’ defense is projected at -2.4 FRAA for the rest of the year, which makes sense considering their lack of defensive bench depth. McCutchen actually grades out pretty poorly in centerfield (-9.3 FRAA so far this year) and Kang’s defense at short (-2.6 FRAA) leaves a bit to be desired. Ramirez can also be a bit shaky at third base, but the addition of Harrison should eventually help that, too. The defense is not bad enough, though, that it should cost them too much down the stretch.

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Here are BP’s current projected standings for the rest of the season in the NL Central:

Central		Updated	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	FRAA
1	Chicago Cubs	Hitters: Aug 13 Pitchers: Aug 2	26	19	208	176	.248	.320	.412	.273	4.0
2	St. Louis Cardinals	Hitters: Jul 31 Pitchers: Jul 31	24	19	192	172	.251	.319	.400	.265	5.4
3	Pittsburgh Pirates	Hitters: Aug 2 Pitchers: Aug 2	23	22	198	188	.253	.316	.398	.267	-2.4

The Cubs are ahead in these projections, but not nearly enough to make a run at the division title seem likely. I personally find this to be a little optimistic for the Cubs (especially after seeing their bullpen struggles over the recent three game losing streak) and a little pessimistic for the Pirates. Still, it is great to see how evenly matched these top teams are expected to be as we head down the stretch.

It is unfair that only one of these three excellent teams is likely to be able advance to the NLCS, and this year’s NL Central gives us our best argument in a while for why we should abolish divisions. Down the stretch, though, these matchups, teams, and stakes will provide some awesome baseball. I hope that this article at least gives a good overview of the other two-thirds of the NL Central’s three-headed monster as we settle in for what is sure to be an exciting and unpredictable pennant race.

Lead photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports