Top Play (WPA): The Cubs came into this game on a three-game losing streak, but with Jon Lester on the mound, it was easy to feel good about the team’s chances in this one. Lester, prior to the seventh inning, had justified the optimism of most by pitching extremely well en route to allowing only four hits and one run with seven strikeouts. Unfortunately, pitching is that most volatile of professions and suddenly things began to unravel due to thefatal combination of poor luck, poor sequencing, and Lester himself unraveling a bit. Following singles by Carl Crawford (.069) and A.J. Ellis (.143), Jose Peraza stepped to the plate to face Lester with runners on first and third and no outs in the seventh. Peraza had worked the count to 3-2 when Lester left a 94 mph fastball out over the outside part of the plate, and Peraza proceeded to line the ball into right-center field for a double (.196), scoring Crawford from third and tying the game 2-2.
Bottom Play (WPA): The Cubs, during their torrid 21-4 stretch, were scoring well over five runs per game. This was brought on by phenomenal second-half performances from Dexter Fowler and Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber’s blazing hot August, in addition to continued strong offense from Anthony Rizzo. Unfortunately, the offense has dried up a bit this week, partially a result of having to face a slew of the best pitchers in baseball. This, however, was not the case on Saturday night, as the Cubs simply failed to capitalize on the opportunities they were given. Arguably the best of these scoring chances came in the top of the eighth inning. Chris Coghlan led off with a single, and following an Anthony Rizzo strikeout, Kris Bryant and Miguel Montero were both hit by pitches from reliever Jim Johnson. This brought Addison Russell to the plate with the bases loaded, one out, and the Cubs down 5-2. Russell has come on strong in the second half with a .273/.314/.438 line, which is obviously quite spectacular for a 21-year-old rookie middle infielder. However, on Saturday night, Russell would prove the theory that you can’t succeed every time at the plate as he grounded into an inning-ending double play (-.163) that effectively ended the Cubs’ chances to make a comeback in this game.
Key Moment: The situation in the bottom of the seventh inning was certainly dire, but Cubs fans have seen Jon Lester get out of tight spots before. That was the hope in Saturday night’s game, as following the Peraza double that tied the game, the Dodgers now had runners on second and third with no outs. A strikeout or a weak pop-up were really the only two ways Lester was going to be able to prevent another run from scoring, but this is easier said than done. Andre Ethier, ahead in the count at 2-0, hit the ball up the middle and in most any other situation, it would have been converted into an out. The problem this time around was that the infielders had been pulled in to try for the out at home on a groundball. This had the unfortunate consequence of allowing Ethier’s roller to get past the middle infield, scoring two runs to put the Dodgers up 4-2. As Cubs fans very well know, sometimes luck just doesn’t work in your favor, and such was the case on Saturday night.
Trend to Watch: Kyle Schwarber continued his recent struggles on Saturday night, going 0-for-4 with a walk on the game. Going back to August 9th, Schwarber has put up a bizarre .151/.269/.439 line. What is particularly striking about those numbers is that Schwarber has continued to hit for power, as six of his 10 hits in that period have been home runs. Part of this is just the usual growing pains for a talented rookie such as Schwarber, and some of it is the league exploiting Schwarber’s current weakness against lefties, as he’s put up a subpar .170/.250/.319 line against southpaws. That is hardly ideal, but it’s also not unusual for young hitters to face this sort of platoon-split struggle, as I’m sure Rizzo can attest. The good news is that there doesn’t appear to be anything mechanical that would cause Schwarber to be unable to hit lefties in the future.
Coming Next: The Cubs (73-55) will finish up the series with the Dodgers (72-56), hopefully with a win, and look to at least finish this west coast swing on a high note. The Cubs will send out ace and emerging Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta (2.22 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 2.60 DRA) to the mound, while the Dodgers counter with deadline acquisition Alex Wood (3.70 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 3.93 DRA).
Lead photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports