Top Play (WPA): I wish I was writing about something different here, but I’m not. This game looked like it might be the Cubs’ to win—see ‘Key Moment’, below—but it slipped out of their grasp seconds after the ball slipped out of Hector Rondon’s right hand and collided, shortly thereafter, with Joey Votto’s bat. That home run (+0.485) scored three and put the game out of reach for Chicago, despite their earnest efforts in the bottom half of the ninth inning. A note here, before I continue: I would not have been able to see this game in person—which I did—if not for the help of Jay Yu, a Cubs ticket representative, who helped me sort out some ticket issues. Thanks, Jay! And thanks to Evan Altman (@DEvanAltman) who hooked me up with the tickets in the first place.
Bottom Play (WPA): Kris Bryant, who would have had the lede on any other day, ends up here in relative ignominy. In the sixth inning, with Reds starter Raisel Iglesias still on the mound, the Cubs had Chris Coghlan on first base, nobody out, and were down by two. It seemed like the perfect opportunity to tie the game via the longball (and indeed, Bryant would do just that a few innings later). But it was not to be. Bryant grounded into a double play (-0.113) and ended the threat for the Reds. It was like that all day for the Cubs: lots of scoring chances, not a lot of coming through. Frustrating to watch, to be sure, and not at all what you want to see to start September.
Key Moment: It wasn’t quite Bill Buckner at first base in 1986, but the way the crowd reacted, it sure felt that way. Let me set the scene: It was the top of the ninth inning, and a Wrigley crowd that had sat listlessly through eight full innings of mostly humdrum baseball had been brought to their feet ten minutes earlier by a two-run home run to left field by Bryant. It was vintage KB: a towering fly ball, all backspin and length, that caught the wind rushing out to left as it reached its peak, and drifted into the stands a few rows back of the basket. That home run had tied the game, and as Hector Rondon faced Jay Bruce with two outs in the inning, the conversation turned to the bottom of the inning: Who would be the one to walk it off for the Cubs? Would it be Austin Jackson, early in his Cubs career? Perhaps a pinch-hitter for Pedro Strop (Javy Baez?)? Or maybe Tommy La Stella, who’d homered early in the game. What nobody expected—much less wanted—was what happened. Bruce hit a smash-shot on the ground to third base, right at Bryant. It’s a play he makes 99 times out of 100, but he didn’t make it today. Bruce reached, and Votto did what he does best: hit a major-league baseball a long, long way.
Trend To Watch: The top-line trend—the only trend that matters right now—is that the Cubs have lost six of nine. That’s what you want to watch. I’ve been banging the drum about the Cubs winning the division all year, but at this point I’m forced to concede that it’s unlikely to happen. Given that, this is all about making it to the Wild Card game now. Sure, you’d love to see the Cubs host the game at Wrigley, rather than heading to PNC Park in Pittsburgh, but with a one-game series there’s so many things that matter that sweating something like home field advantage isn’t worth it to me. Right now, all I want is the Cubs to clinch a spot in that game. Take care of the rest later. Speaking of clinching a spot …
Coming Next: The Cubs head into an off day on Thursday—sorely needed, with Kyle Schwarber sitting today and the team riding out a losing streak—and then play host to the Diamondbacks at Wrigley starting Friday night. I’d imagine the Cubs will do a little reshuffling of their rotation to take advantage of the off day, so I hesitate to speculate too much about who’s going to pitch for Chicago. I will say that Arizona, sitting at 65-68 despite the strenuous efforts of former 2015 Cub Welington Castillo (.275/.343/.554, 15 HR with Arizona), has been a tough nut to crack for the Cubs this year. Something about the way the teams match up doesn’t sit well with Chicago, and the Cubs have gone 1-2 against them so far this year. That’ll have to change—and soon—for the Cubs to keep their heads above water. The Giants have done Chicago a huge solid by losing so often this last week. That won’t last and, with any luck, this poor play from the Cubs won’t either.
Lead photo courtesy David Banks—USA Today Sports.