Top Play (WPA): Through four innings, Phillies starting pitcher Adam Morgan confounded Cubs hitters, allowing just two singles and no real threats. The fifth inning appeared to be more of the same, as he retired Jake Arrieta and Addison Russell to start the inning. Dexter Fowler then singled, bringing up Austin Jackson with two outs. Morgan quickly worked ahead of Jackson 0-2 with consecutive effective changeups. After fouling off two pitches, Jackson worked the count back to 2-2, at which point Morgan hung a curveball:
Jackson yanked said curve into the left field corner to score Fowler and square the contest at 1-1 (+.177). Having already whiffed twice on a heavy dose of quality off-speed offerings, Kris Bryant followed by getting ahead in the count 2-0 before lining a changeup into left-center to score Jackson (+.163). Bryant’s hustling-double would prove to be the game-winner thanks to the continued brilliance of Arrieta. More on both gentlemen in a moment.
Bottom Play (WPA): With nobody out and two on in the sixth, David Ross swung through three consecutive pitches to strikeout for the first out (-.052). All was not lost, as following the game’s most statistically depressing play, Arrieta worked a five-pitch walk to load the bases for Russell, who proceeded to lace a thigh-high, 95-mph fastball into the well-abused left-field corner for a two-run double (+.142). With Jake dealing, the game felt over.
Key Moment: We’ll get the menial amount of negative out of the way quickly. Through three innings, Arrieta did not look particularly sharp. His usual supreme command was clearly belying him, as evidenced by leaving nine pitches up in the zone in the first three frames:
He mostly managed to avoid damage despite the less-than-stellar start, but a mistake to Aaron Altherr did cost him his eight-game streak of starts without a home run allowed (July 25th). It struck me as remarkable not so much that he allowed a home run, but more so that I could not remember the last time I’d witnessed Arrieta deliver such an obviously manageable pitch, a 92-mph cutter that floated across the plate:
The blast also notched the first earned run against for Jake in five starts, dating back to August 15th.
With one out and and a runner on first in the fourth, Altherr hit a chopper to Russell at short for what appeared to be a routine force-out. Russell threw wildly to Starlin Castro covering second, but Starlin made an acrobatic play to save an error and record the force-out. In typical Castro fashion, he then attempted to run off the field believing the third out had been recorded. No harm was done, but it was a glimpse of the mental gaffes that have threatened to derail his career (and certainly his reputation).
The Phillies managed to string together a walk and single in the seventh, when a wild-pitch allowed the runners to advance to second and third. As has been a constant refrain this season, Arrieta got out of the jam by inducing a Cesar Hernandez fly out.
Trend to Watch: There are a plethora of exciting factoids coming out of this game. I am running out of superlatives for him, so we’ll start with what Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta accomplished today in bullet form:
– 200th strikeout recorded (204 and counting)
– 16th consecutive quality start, breaking Pete Alexander’s club record
– Sub-2.00 ERA (1.99 and counting)
– Three total earned runs in his last nine starts
I could go on, but I’ll leave it by simply saying we are truly witnessing history in the making with Jake Arrieta’s 2015 performance.
Kris Bryant also snagged a piece of history, notching his 87th RBI with his fifth-inning double. It had become a formality, but the knock officially gave Bryant the all-time Cubs rookie RBI record, passing Billy Williams (good company, eh?) and Geovany Soto. He still has three weeks to add to his formidable total.
Castro stayed scorching hot, notching two more hits. His first knock was vintage Castro, throwing his bat at an excellent pitchers-pitch and blooping a single into right. I mused to no one in particular that this is what Castro does when he is hot. Sure enough, one-inning later he laced a hanging changeup into the seats in right-center for his eighth home run. Luis Medina over at Bleacher Nation did an excellent job detailing the stance and approach improvements that led to Castro’s resurgence, noting that he has recorded a.364/.373/.545 slash line, .395 wOBA and 151 wRC+ in 67 plate appearances over the span of 26 games played in the last 30 calendar days, and I noted in the Beer List two weeks ago that Castro had shown outstanding leadership throughout his challenging season. One of the most interesting story lines of the rest of this season will be whether he can carry his late-season resurgence into meaningful postseason contribution.
Javy Baez continued his successful sophomore campaign by notching two more hits, and more importantly not striking-out. Javy’s limited slash line sits at .345/.387/.517, while his strikeout percentage rests just below a healthy 20 percent. His approach changes have been well documented, but his first single tonight stuck out to me, as he used a controlled swing on a pitch with just one strike against him. His lead foot never left the ground, instead pivoting (ala Bryant) quickly and staying grounded through contact. The changes appear thorough and very real.
The greatest year-over-year turnaround in the win column for the Cubs came between the 1966-1967 seasons, in which the Cubs finished 28 games better in 67′ than 66′. The Cubs are currently on pace for 94 wins, which would represent a 21-game improvement from 2014.
Coming Next: A very short wait! Game two of the twin-billing has already begun, with the Cubs holding a 6-1 lead in the top of the sixth. Kyle Hendricks started and continues to pitch for the Cubs, looking to bring his season ERA under the 4.00 threshold. The Phillies counter with Alec Asher, a 23-year-old youngster making just his third career start. I am heading to watch, and you should too!
Thanks to Rob McQuown for quick assistance with statistical information.
Lead photo courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports