Top Play (WPA): With the Cubs having lost the first half of the day-night double-header, they were relying on Jon Lester (3.50 ERA/3.03 FIP/3.90 DRA) to come through with a big game—and he certainly delivered. A complete-game gem of a performance from Lester made this game not only satisfying to watch as a fan, but a joy to recap.
In lower scoring games, the first run of the game often ends up being the biggest play (according to WPA). Sure enough, that’s the script that this game followed. With one out in the top of the first inning, Austin Jackson hit a double off of Pirates starter J.A. Happ (3.87/3.61/4.29). After Kris Bryant struck out swinging, Anthony Rizzo drilled a first-pitch fastball from Happ through the shift and into right field, bringing Jackson around from second base to make it 1-0 Cubs (+0.099).
Happ gave Rizzo a 94 mph fastball low in the zone and Rizzo didn’t miss it. Check out the location of the pitch, followed by Rizzo’s zone profile on first-pitch fastballs and sinkers:
In the spot where Happ threw that fastball, Rizzo is now 12-for-19 on the season when putting it in play. He actually struggles with first-pitch fastballs right down the middle, having gone just 4-for-26, which makes the positioning of the catcher’s glove frustrating for the Pirates:
He was calling for it to come essentially right down the middle, but Happ missed his spot low. That was all Rizzo needed to line the pitch into right field and, in a game that finished 2-1, one run is obviously a difference maker.
Bottom Play (WPA): In the bottom of the seventh inning, with the Cubs now up 2-0, Lester allowed a leadoff single to our old friend Aramis Ramirez, followed by a single by Francisco Cervelli that moved Ramirez over to third. Things were starting to look bad for Lester, who had cruised up until that point. The next batter was Michael Morse, who induced a 3-1 count from Lester.
On the final pitch of the at bat Morse rolled over and grounded the ball to Addison Russell, who started a double play by flipping to Starlin Castro, who promptly threw over to Anthony Rizzo, retiring Morse (-0.163). Ramirez came in to score from third base to make it a 2-1 game, but the twin killing cleared everyone off the bases and essentially ended the threat. Lester later hit Sean Rodriguez and a wild pitch moved him to second base, but Jung-Ho Kang struck out to end the inning.
Key Moment: In the bottom of the sixth inning, Pirates star Andrew McCutchen made a bid for extra bases, drilling one deep to right field. At first, it looked like it might get out of the park altogether. But Bryant, who was playing in right field for just the fifth time this season, made a leaping grab up against the fence to rob McCutchen and end the inning.
Like we saw before with the location on the pitch to Rizzo, in a close game between two very good teams, it sometimes comes down to plays like this. Bryant’s catch may not have been jaw-dropping, but it certainly was important in the context of the game and the standings. If that ball hits the fence and bounces away from him, it’s likely that McCutchen is standing on third base. Who knows what happens then.
Trend to Watch: Lester has been really good lately (and, given his track record, that shouldn’t come as a shock). Since July 1st, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the National League but has likely been overlooked because of how dominant Jake Arrieta has been over the same stretch. But check out Lester’s stats after July 1st this season and how they compare to the last few seasons:
Lester seems to save his best for the end of the season, and this year has been no different. He should get three more starts in the regular season before the playoffs start, and it wouldn’t be surprising to me at all if Lester dominated on the mound the rest of the month.
Coming Next: The Cubs (83-61) still have two more games to play against the Pirates (87-57) before heading home for three games against the Cardinals. Jake Arrieta (1.99/2.53/2.21) will take the mound tomorrow against A.J. Burnett (3.14/3.24/4.42), who is making his second start since returning from the disabled list. In his first start against the Brewers, Burnett allowed three runs in the first inning but then settled in and pitched four more innings without allowing another hit. Considering how poorly the Cubs bullpen has performed lately, it would be nice to see the offense pounce on Burnett early and put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Lead photo courtesy Charles LeClair—USA Today Sports.