Top Play (WPA): Starlin Castro’s year has been something out of a storybook. He entered the year as one of twin stars (alongside Anthony Rizzo) on a team ascending; he struggled mightily as the calendar turned from April to May, and then to the dog days of summer; he was, finally, removed from the everyday lineup in a public humiliation; he has been brilliant since then, playing the best baseball of his career; today, he nearly added a new chapter to his legacy. Trailing by a run in the ninth, the Cubs faced Mark Melancon, the Pirates’ outstanding closer. Chris Denorfia doubled to lead off the frame (+0.100), but Miguel Montero struck out to bring Castro to the plate with a chance to tie the game with one swing. He didn’t do quite that, but his triple—inches fair down the line—scored Denorfia (+0.291) and pulled the Cubs within one. I’ve never seen Wrigley quite so alive as it was then, electric in the afternoon sunshine with the chance of victory 90 feet away.
Bottom Play (WPA): Quintin Berry was put in to run for Castro, and it was up to the Cubs’ two youngest Latin sluggers, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez, to elevate the crowd to new levels of ecstasy. Soler looked overmatched in his turn at the plate, quickly running the count to 2-2 and eventually striking out (-0.246) on a devastating Melancon curveball. I wish I could write that Baez’s plate appearance ended differently, but it was not to be. An 0-2 hole is hard to climb out of when you’re a hitter like Javy Baez, and the curveball he got was as predictable as it was impossible to hit. Baez struck out (-0.149) and the game ended on a somber note.
Key Moment: Baez’s misfortune may never have been necessary if the Cubs had managed to come through in the previous inning. Trailing, at that point, 3-1, the Cubs staged a two-out rally in the eighth: Austin Jackson worked a walk off of Tony Watson, and Kris Bryant followed Jackson with a single into right. That Bryant single, by the way, was worth noticing: he went with the ball, put his head down, and didn’t try to do too much with a pitch low and away from his power zone. It was good hitting, and it’s a shame it was wasted. Wasted? Yes, because the next batter was Rizzo, striding to the plate with the game on the line and the weight of the city on his shoulders. I’m sure there’s nothing more he would have liked to do than deposit Watson’s next pitch onto Sheffield, but it was not to be. Four pitches into the sequence, he struck out (-0.077), and the Pirates took their two-run lead into the ninth.
Trend to Watch: It’ll be obscured because the loss was so frustrating, but Jon Lester was excellent today. Over seven innings, and 25 total batters faced, Lester struck out six, walked none, and allowed just five hits. The two runs he was debited—one, in the third inning, on a Gerrit Cole single; the other, in the seventh, on a liner to right by Michael Morse—were more the product of sequencing than a poor approach, and I liked the way Lester mixed and match his pitches today. The effort was wasted, unfortunately, because Cubs’ bats just couldn’t get anything going against Cole. If you’re stockpiling nightmare scenarios for the Wild Card game on October 7th, file this one away as a template. Jake Arrieta can pitch as well as he’s able—and that’s very well—but the Cubs won’t win that game unless they find a way to get their knocks against Cole. They’ll have two weeks to think about it. For now, praise be to Lester, for he pitched well today.
Coming Next: The Cubs will try to bounce back from a tough loss tomorrow afternoon at Wrigley. Jason Hammel (90 cFIP, 101 DRA-) will take the mound for the Cubs against the Pirates’ Francisco Liriano (86, 86). With just a glance at those numbers, you’d be forgiven for thinking that this is a matchup that favors the Buccos; indeed, Hammel has struggled over the last few months, posting a 5.43 ERA since the All-Star break. But the fact is that Liriano has struggled as well: since August 8th, when he gave up four earned runs to the Dodgers in just three innings, the 31-year-old Dominican has put up a 4.72 ERA over 47 2/3 innings of work. That’s a far cry from the 2.92 ERA he posted over the season’s first four months, and not where the Pirates will need him if they intend to play deep into October. Oh, yes, October: I can think of at least one team that has designs on that month as well. The Cubs are playing for keeps these days, and although they weren’t able to clinch on the field on Friday, there’s no reason to believe they’ll approach Saturday any differently. Onwards.
Lead photo courtesy Jerry Lai—USA Today Sports.