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Game 154 Recap: Pirates 4 Cubs 0

Top Play (WPA): Considering that the Cubs clinched their playoff spot late last night when the Giants lost to the A’s, the Cubs looked like they had a bit of a hangover in today’s game. Cubs starter Jason Hammel provided fans with a bunch of hope early on, cruising through the first four innings without allowing any runs. He was throwing strikes and, in general, looked like the Jason Hammel of May and June.

But then he went out for the fifth inning, and he was like a completely different pitcher. Francisco Cervelli singled to center field on a 3-1 count off Hammel, followed by a single to right by Pedro Alvarez on a 1-0 count. Then came light-hitting shortstop Jordy Mercer, who drilled a three-run homer into the left-field bleachers through the wind, which was blowing in (.237).

Hammel gave up five-consecutive hits to start the fifth inning before exiting the game. After the initial tease, it was more of the same that we’ve been seeing the entire second half of the season. Check out the location on the pitches from Hammel in the fifth:

hammel 5th

The balls that missed weren’t really that close, making the fat strikes that he left on the middle of the plate all the better to hit. Maddon said recently that he hasn’t ruled out a “bullpen game”in the playoffs, should they advance beyond the wild card game, and I think that could involve Hammel. If he can go out knowing he just needs to give three to four solid innings before giving way to Trevor Cahill or Travis Wood, that might be the way to make it work. If nothing else, it opens the possibility to using him on three days of rest, if need be.

Bottom Play (WPA): Before the Pirates scored in the top of the fifth, the Cubs looked like they were about to grab the lead in the bottom of the fourth inning. Kris Bryant led off with a double to the left-center field gap. After moving over to third base on a groundout to first by Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro came up just needing to hit a relatively deep fly ball to grab a 1-0 lead.

Castro hit the flyball to right field, but the howling wind blew it in close enough that it was too risky to send Bryant to the plate (-.078). Jorge Soler was up next, and he struck out swinging to end the threat. The Cubs didn’t score, and they ended up getting shut out for the first time since the Cole Hamels no-hitter back in July.

Key Moment: Despite the ugly 4-0 loss to the Pirates, pushing the division championship effectively out of reach, and likely the home-field advantage in the wild card as well, the Cubs got to celebrate clinching their first postseason appearance since 2008 after the game.

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Despite having lived through several great postseason celebrations, such as winning the play in game in 1998, the 2003 double-header sweep that clinched the division, and the win over the Cardinals in 2008 that sealed their postseason spot in their best regular season in several decades, watching the Cubs players and coaches spraying champagne with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer still brought lots of amazing feelings. Enjoy this MLB.com recap of how the Cubs got where they are:

Trend to Watch: The Cubs may be nearly eliminated from the divisional race and far enough behind the Pirates to not be able to play the wild card game in Chicago, but the rest of the divisional race is still interesting. The Pirates have now won eight games in a row and, if the Cardinals lose to the Brewers tonight, will be just two games out going into play tomorrow.

After the Cubs and Pirates series ends, the Pirates go back home on Monday to host the Cardinals in what will be the biggest regular season series for both teams. Depending on how each of them perform leading up to Monday, Pittsburgh could be as close as one game behind St. Louis. The best case scenario for the Cubs, it seems, would be for the Cards and Pirates to finish the season tied for first place. This would force them to play a one-game playoff game to decide the division winner on October 5th, the day after the season ends. The Cubs would face the loser of that game, fully rested and almost assuredly with Jake Arrieta on the mound.

Coming Next: Speaking of Arrieta (1.88 ERA/2.47 FIP/2.21 DRA), he faces the Pirates on Sunday in the finale of the three-game series. The Cubs will be looking to salvage a win, while the Pirates will send A.J. Burnett (3.15/3.29/4.49) to the mound to try to earn the sweep. Burnett has pitched in three games since returning from the disabled list, pitching 16 innings with 17 hits allowed, seven walks, 15 strikeouts, and a 3.94 ERA. The Cubs will play a makeup game with the Royals on Monday, which could be the last game played at Wrigley Field this year, before flying to Cincinnati.

Lead photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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