Top Play (WPA): The Cubs closed out their regular-season slate with a win (their 97th) in Milwaukee on Sunday, beating the Brewers 3-1 on the back of a strong—and perhaps final—start from Dan Haren, and a clutch hit from Anthony Rizzo. That hit, Rizzo’s final regular-season contribution to a brilliant season, came in the first inning, driving in two runs (+0.126) and bringing Rizzo’s RBI total to a final resting place of 101. That mark makes him the first Cub since Alfonso Soriano in 2012 to hit 30 home runs and drive in as many, although Soriano’s stance way back in the box kept him from reaching Rizzo’s lofty hit-by-pitch total and the coveted 30-30 season Rizzo’s achieved this year (Soriano had seven HBPs that year; Rizzo has 30).
Going into the game, two storylines dominated: Would the Cubs play the Wild Card game at home (in the event of a win and a Pittsburgh loss) or in Pittsburgh (in any other scenario)?; and would Rizzo and his middle-of-the-order companion, Kris Bryant, reach 100 RBIs? Well, the Cubs won—you know that already, or should—but Pittsburgh failed to hold up their end of the bargain, beating Cincinnati to secure home-field advantage for Gerrit Cole this Wednesday. And Bryant and Rizzo both had their share of RBI opportunities, but only Rizzo was able to come through, despite two walks and a single from Bryant. At times, it seemed that each was pressing, especially late in the game, at the chance to hit one of those nice round numbers that agents love. It’s fair to hope that the change in approach will be dropped come playoff time, when the clocks reset to zero and the season begins again.
Bottom Play (WPA): Haren was—as he’s been for a while now—solid all night, allowing just a few baserunners and never really putting the game at risk for Chicago. The only trouble for the Cubs came in the seventh, off of Justin Grimm, who put Hernan Perez on first base with just one out in a two-run ballgame. Happily, however, Grimm swiftly induced a double play ball from the dangerous Jean Segura (-0.083) and got out of the inning, handing the ball over to Neil Ramirez for the eighth and Travis Wood for the ninth. Both were excellent—the Cubs’ bullpen has a 2.50 ERA over the last month, which is the third-best mark in baseball—and sent the Chicago crowd (yes, Chicago crowd, even though the game was played in Milwaukee) home happy with a victory.
Key Moment: In a game as smooth as this one, there aren’t a lot of key moments to point to, so I’ll show you this. Watch this play Kris Bryant made for the second out of the ninth inning:
That’s a play that Bryant almost certainly fails to make early in the season. He’s a tall guy—listed at 6 foot 5 inches, and I can assure you he feels taller when you’re standing next to him—and when you’re that tall it’s hard to (a) get your hands down fast enough to get that ball and (b) move laterally with that kind of athleticism. His defense has improved tremendously over the course of the season, and the flexibility he’s shown is exactly what might allow the Cubs to consider moving him to center field, at least part time, next season. Bryant’s ability to do so will therefore be key to the Cubs’ decision to tender Dexter Fowler (who sat on Sunday) a qualifying offer at season’s end.
Trend to Watch: How about that pitching, huh? Cubs’ starters have a 2.19 ERA over the last month—by far the best in the majors—a 1.42 over the last 14 days, and an 0.41 over the last seven days. That’s what you call peaking at the right time. After late concerns about the Cubs’ “H”-trio (Hammel, Hendricks, and Haren) all three have showed up to work lately and put to rest, at least for the moment, the idea that the Cubs are weak beyond their top two. The truth is that they’ve never been weak, really—starting depth has always been a strength of this club, at least in the Epstein/Hoyer era—but Hammel and Hendricks did struggle at the same time, which raised questions that needn’t have been asked. In any event, their arms don’t matter for the moment. The season rests on the broad shoulders of Jake Arrieta. And you know what’s …
Coming Next: I don’t really have to tell you. We’ll have lots of coverage here at BP Wrigleyville over the next 48 hours, so watch this space. 7 pm CT. Pittsburgh. Arrieta vs. Cole. It’s gonna be amazing. I’ll leave you with this final thought, from me during pregame:
Happy last day of the season! Whatever Wednesday brings, this one probably couldn't have gone much better for the Cubs. Bring on the gravy!
— Rian Watt (@rianwatt) October 4, 2015
Bring on the gravy, indeed.
Lead photo courtesy Benny Sieu—USA Today Sports.