Been There Before: The Brilliant Postseason Consistency of Jon Lester – Playoff Experience on the 2015 Cubs, Part II

Part I of this series focused on the rest of the Cubs roster. This piece, which looks at Lester’s postseason career in general, will set up Part III: a preview of Jon Lester’s Game One start in St. Louis, which will run tomorrow.

October legends are created a myriad of ways—in a few signature at-bats (David Freese and Reggie Jackson come to mind), in a hobbled mad dash for home (Sid Bream), or in striking out all 27 batters in a World Series game at Yankee Stadium (Brendan Fraser in The Scout). Jon Lester, though, has achieved his postseason reputation by doing in October what he has done throughout his regular season career: be consistently very good, and occasionally great.

It has been said and written of Derek Jeter that his postseason numbers are impressive not because they are otherworldly, but because they so closely mirror his regular season production. Similar sentiments can be expressed about Lester, who, in 12 postseason starts (14 appearances), has never recorded a shutout, complete game, or double-digit strikeout performance.

What he has done, though, is consistently deliver performances that bear a striking resemblance to his regular season efforts:

• In six of 12 starts, at least seven strikeouts
• In seven of 12 starts, at least seven innings pitched
• In eight of 12 start,  issued two or fewer walks
• In 10 of 12 starts, surrendered three earned runs or fewer
• In 12 starts, Lester has never lasted fewer than 5 1/3 innings and never departed with more than a three-run deficit

And when you are replicating the regular season production of one of the 12-15 best pitchers in baseball, the results are tremendous:

Lester has compiled the above numbers pitching in just about every type of postseason environment: seven road starts, five Game One starts, two win-or-go-home games (both on the road), and the clinching game of the World Series. His performances in these high-pressure, often hostile environments, makes him one of the great postseason pitchers of the Wild Card era.

Since 1995, Lester is one of 40 pitchers who have made at least 10 postseason starts*. Entering the 2015 playoffs, he ranks among the very best in most major categories:

*Thanks to the invaluable and talented Rob McQuown and Ryan Davis for their assistance with the statistics

In the BP Wrigleyville Mid-Season Edition (the best non-Smash Mouth $3.99 you will ever spend in the App Store), I wrote the following of Lester:

During the run-up to the Chicago Cubs 2015 season, much of the restrained optimism and excited conversation revolved around the belief that “next year” had finally arrived. That is, 2015 would be the year the Cubs transitioned from just “building” to “building and competing.”

There was no shortage of reasons for cautious optimism (or just downright unbridled excitement), including the impending arrival of heralded prospects and the signing of an un-tampered-with manager. However, the acquisition of Lester, known for his postseason exploits as much as for his regular season durability and consistency, was at the forefront. Below, we delve into some of Lester’s biggest starts and series, and it just might provide us with a sense of how he will approach the 2015 postseason.

2007: Where It All Began

On 110 occasions, a pitcher has started the clinching game of the World Series. For Jon Lester, a 23-year-old with 144 1/3 innings pitched in his career, his outing in Game Five of the 2007 World Series just so happened to be the first postseason start of his career.

Lester went up against the Colorado Rockies, who finished second in the National League in runs scored and OPS that year, and slashed .298/.372/.480 at home. Facing a lineup that featured four players who hit at least 24 home runs, Lester would go 5 2/3 innings, striking out three and allowing no earned runs on three walks and three hits. He was not overpowering, but he did induce five groundouts and five infield flyballs.

The 2-3-4 of Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, and Matt Holliday went a combined 1-for-9 with three strikeouts. Holliday, who slashed .340/.405/.607 that season and had a case for the National League MVP award, had a particularly instructive at-bat in the third inning of that game, with one out and Kaz Matsui representing the tying run at second base.

Lester attacked Holliday, owner of a .267 ISO and 19.5 percent home-run-to-flyball ratio, with all four-seamers and cutters. It was a gutsy approach, and it also demonstrated some masterful sequencing:

• With the count 2-0, Lester got Holliday to chase a 94-mph four-seamer out of the zone for strike one
• On 2-1, Lester came inside with a cutter, on which Holliday whiffed
• Now 2-2, Lester missed up in the zone with a four-seamer, but Holliday could only foul off the pitch
• Still 2-2, Lester climbed the ladder again with a 94-mph four-seamer, and Holliday again whiffed for strike three

Lester challenged the best hitter in the NL with fastballs, but remained poised enough to locate his pitches. The at-bat demonstrated that, even at just 23 years old, the moment was not too big for Lester.

Interestingly, Lester did not throw a single sinker or changeup, going to his four-seamer and cutter a for a combined 78 of his 91 pitches (85.7 percent), which was about 10 percentage points above his season average (75.49 percent). As we have covered throughout 2015, when Lester is struggling, he falls back on his big three pitches (four-seamer, cutter, and curve), while using his sinker and changeup sparingly. It is no surprise, then, that as a 23-year-old starting the decisive game of the World Series on the road in the ultimate hitter’s park, he and Jason Varitek would rely on the pitches with which he was most comfortable.

Mike Lowell and Bobby Kielty each hit a solo home run, Jonathan Papelbon recorded the final five outs, and Lester earned the win. As far as first postseason starts go, it was fairly auspicious, and certainly a sign of things to come.

2008: Personal Success, Team Struggles

A season after clinching the World Series for the Red Sox at Coors Field, Lester started Game One of the 2008 ALDS in Anaheim. In seven innings, he did not surrender an earned run, while striking out seven and allowing seven baserunners. The Red Sox would win Game One, as well as the decisive Game Four in Boston. In two ALDS starts, Lester allowed zero earned runs and 13 baserunners in 14 innings. He would not allow an extra-base hit.

Game Three of the ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays remains Lester’s worst postseason start. In 5 2/3 innings, he allowed four earned runs on eight hits and two walks. Lester surrendered home runs to B.J. Upton (on a four-seam fastball) and Evan Longoria (on a cutter), and surrendered four hits off his sinker, of which he threw 20 (one short of his postseason career high). Boston lost to fall behind 2-1 in the series.

Lester would next start Game Seven in Tampa Bay.  The run support would be scarce, perhaps foreshadowing the 2015 regular season. Dustin Pedroia, the game’s second batter, launched a solo home run off Matt Garza, but it would be all the offense the Red Sox would generate.

Lester pitched seven solid innings, issuing zero walks and six hits, while generating 12 whiffs and getting ahead of 19 of 27 hitters. In other words, it was a fairly typical Lester postseason outing. The Rays, however, scratched across single runs in the fourth and fifth innings to take the lead, and iced the game with a Wily Aybar solo home run in the seventh inning.

The Red Sox would load the bases in the eighth inning, but rookie David Price came out of the bullpen to strike out J.D. Drew to end the threat. Lester took the hard-luck loss.

The 2008 postseason was notable for the frequency and effectiveness of Lester’s curve. He threw at least 21 curves in all four starts, a number he has only reached in one other postseason start. Lester went to his curve 25.12 percent of all pitches, after going to it 17.16 percent in the regular season. Against the curve, opposing batters slugged .167.

Lester’s and the team’s less-than-desired results in the ALCS could not mask that overall he was very good in four starts (1.088 WHIP, 23.9 percent strikeout rate, .612 OPS against).

2013: More Success

Lester entered the 2013 playoffs with an already-sterling postseason resume (2.57 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and 22.2 percent strikeout rate), but his four-year absence from the playoffs had caused his October heroics to recede from memory ever so slightly. After five starts in 24 days, though, he would emerge from the 2013 postseason being mentioned among the greatest October pitchers of all time. In five starts, Lester posted the following numbers:

In two ALCS starts against the Detroit Tigers, Lester had solid top-level numbers (2.31 ERA and .698 OPS), but allowed 19 base runners in 11 2/3 innings pitched. The duo of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder went a combined 4-for-8 with four walks. Lester, though, minimized the damage by inducing two double plays (one on the cutter, one on the four-seamer) and giving up just one extra-base hit.

Lester took it to another level in the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, posting the following combined numbers in his victories in Game One and Game Five:

In 2013, among NL teams, the Cardinals had the fifth-highest walk rate and second-lowest strikeout rate. Lester, facing 54 batters in the two starts, had just five three-ball counts, with nine 0-2 counts, and 23 1-2 counts. Since it was just two years ago, it’s logical to review how Lester approached the postseason compared to the regular season:

While Lester increased his four-seam frequency by more than six percentage points, he struggled slightly with the pitch. With his four-seamer, Lester surrendered four of five extra-base hits, including all three home runs.

Lester’s cutter was outstanding throughout the postseason: he picked up 14 of 29 strikeouts (48.3 percent) via the cutter, despite it accounting for 26.72 percent of all pitches, and 35.1 percent of two-strike pitches. He went to his big three pitches at a rate about 10.5 percentage points above his season average, which, as you can read below, is notable.

2014: One Wild Game

Lester’s final line for the 2014 AL Wild Card game was not overly impressive: 7 1/3 IP, 8 H, 5 K, 2 BB, 6 ER. By Game Score (41), it was the second-worst postseason start of his career.

In Kansas City, Lester, for the only time in his postseason career, threw more cut fastballs than four-seam fastballs. It was for good reason, as the Royals had five hits off of Lester’s four-seamer. The cutter was not much more effective, though, with the Royals batters picking up three hits.

However, entering the eighth inning, Lester had retired 12 of his last 13 batters. He would face four more batters before being pulled, allowing two hits, a walk, two stolen bases, and an earned run. In the fateful inning, Lester threw just eight of 16 pitches for strikes, despite going to the four-seam, cutter, and curve on 13 of 16 pitches. Lester would be charged with six earned runs, but he did depart holding a three run lead. It would not hold up.

The Royals had struggled in September, slashing just .262/.318/.364 with a 19.1 percent strikeout rate. Regardless, they took it to Lester that night. Could it have been the result of him wearing down? Lester threw a career-high 219 innings in 2014, and he was making his 70th start in two seasons. In five September starts, Lester had thrown 549 pitches.

Lester did allow just one extra-base hit, and it is worth wondering if Joe Maddon would have sent Lester out to start the eighth inning. In 2015, on five occasions, Maddon has pulled Lester after seven innings pitched and 96 or fewer pitches thrown. Additionally, as BP Wrigleyville’s Zachary Moser detailed in typically excellent fashion, Maddon has historically had an early hook with his starting pitchers in the postseason.

Postseason Approach and Wrap Up

As we touched on in the preceding section, in the postseason, Lester has leaned heavily on his four-seam, cutter, and curve triumvirate, as they account for a combined 88 percent of all pitches:

Lester has increased his four-seam, cutter, and curve usage by 11 percentage points from the regular season.

When Lester takes the ball in the postseason, he is a good bet to deliver roughly what he averages in the regular season, if not better: seven innings, just over a baserunner per inning, six or seven strikeouts, and a heavy dose of the four-seamer, cutter, and curve. Lester is one of the best postseasons pitchers of the past two decades, and while he might not be on the mound at the end of the game, he will likely have put the Cubs in position to win the game. That’s one thing he has done consistently.

Lead photo courtesy David Kohl—USA Today Sports.