Breaking down the NLDS Roster Decisions

Now that the we know that the Cubs are headed to the NLDS to face the Cardinals, we asked some of our BP Wrigleyville writers to put together their ideal roster for that series. There was quite a bit of consensus with regards to the lineups, with Chris Denorfia and Quintin Berry battling for the last spot on the bench. Most people liked Jason Hammel over Dan Haren to join Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta in the rotation. In the bullpen, well, that’s where things get messy. Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Clayton Richard and Travis Wood are safe, but Justin Grimm, Fernando Rodney, Trevor Cahill, Carl Edwards, Jr., and Zac Rosscup warranted a mention on some but not all of the ballots. Here are the roster recommendations from some of our staff members with a few notes on the most difficult decisions.

James Burns: The hardest call was the last bullpen spot. Grimm seems deserving, but Joe Maddon was on the Angels staff in 2002 when Francisco Rodriguez burst onto the scene. Entering the playoffs he tallied 5 2/3 innings pitched. In the playoffs? 18 2/3 innings pitched, 28 strikeouts, five walks, and 70 batters faced. I see Edwards, Jr. having similar potential. He has just 4 2/3 innings pitched in the regular season. The book isn’t out on him—Pittsburgh is the only playoff team that has seen him at all, and they’re gone now—and he has a plus fastball with movement and a plus curve. I believe Edwards could surprise everyone—with the exception of Maddon.

David Blumberg: Choosing Haren for the playoff rotation over Hammel still makes me feel a bit queasy, but nonetheless, I really do believe we’re more likely to get five quality innings out of him than Hammel. It’s certainly difficult to tell a guy like Hammel, who has done so much for the team, that he’s not going to get a chance in the playoffs, but winning is the ultimate goal, so it must be done.

Cat Garcia: The toughest call for me was whether or not to put Rosscup in the last bullpen spot. Richard and Wood are both long reliever types, but both have shown consistency as of late—which carried a lot of weight in my decision. Rosscup recently returned from a DL stint in which he has made seven appereances out of the pen and only accumulated 3 2/3 innings in total. He’s serving as more of a LOOGY at this point, and for an entire series I think it’s safest to have two lefties who have proven the ability to go out there longer, if needed.

Michael Wenz: For me, it came down to three players at the end—Zac Rosscup, Quintin Berry and Chris Denorfia—and I weighted heavily how likely their relative skills are to be needed, rather than how well they’ve done overall. Each of these are likely to fill a role that may not come up, with Rosscup as LOOGY, Berry as late-inning baserunner, and Denorfia as a pinch hitter. With Denorfia, the Cubs’ versatility makes him probably the seventh option in the outfield once Kris Bryant is thrown into the mix. With Berry, I worry I’m falling victim to small-sample-size bias, but I wish the only caught stealing of his career hadn’t come against the Cardinals in September. That leaves Rosscup. With Jason Heyward, Matt Carpenter, Kolton Wong and Brandon Moss across the diamond, it seems to me like the opportunity for a situational lefty is the most important one to fill.

Matt Trueblood: For me, which of Chris Coghlan and Tommy La Stella play against any right-handed hurler is a fascinating, excruciating question. Coghlan is a better hitter; I still believe that. I also think Coghlan fits better into the optimal defensive alignment, most nights. I’m not as sure that he fits from a matchup, playoff-specific angle, because of the types of pitchers the Cubs will see throughout their run.

Isaac Bennett: The toughest call for me was deciding between Denorfia and Berry. Unfortunately, while Berry is a burner, he has not impressed me on the basepaths enough to carry him for all five games. Another tough decision was deciding between Javier Baez and  Austin Jackson against a lefty; ultimately, I like Baez’ ability to change a game enough to get him in there. Clayton Richard and Rosscup are basically a toss-up. I don’t really want either of them to have the ball.

Ryan Davis: There were a few small things to decide on, but nothing that would probably cause a big uproar among Cubs fans. I kept Denorfia on the roster over Berry because Berry has shown me absolutely nothing to this point, and Maddon seems to trust Denorfia in the field. I would start Hammel in Game Four, but I’d probably have Wood up and warming in the fourth or fifth inning. As soon as Hammel hits a hint of trouble, I’d bring Wood in. Mike Matheny is likely to stack his lineup with left-handed batters against Hammel, and bringing Wood in for a few innings messes things up for them. The bullpen doesn’t have any surprises, in my opinion, and the bench is pretty similar to what I feel most would expect. Coghlan gets the nod against right-handed hitters, and I keep Schwarber in the lineup regardless of the pitcher.

Lead photo courtesy Charles LeClaire—USA Today Sports.