A pitcher at the top of his game executed perfectly a well-called pitch against against an injury-riddled veteran who slugged .208 against the pitch since the All-Star break. Perhaps nine times out of 10, this ends in the pitcher’s favor. This is the cruel uncertainty of the playoffs, though, and the batter won this one-pitch battle.
And, as a result, for the second consecutive game, we are using this space to analyze a game-winning RBI single in the first inning. This time, though, it was against the Cubs.
Jon Lester and Matt Holliday had only faced each other 19 times entering Friday night. In this small sample size, Holliday is 7-for-18 with a walk, double, home run, and four strikeouts. Holliday, in two games against Lester in 2015, went 3-for-6 with a walk. In the seven at-bats, Lester threw him 11 four-seam fastballs, and Holliday swung at just two. One of the two came on Opening Night, on a 94-mph four-seam fastball down in the zone:
Holliday lined the pitch into right field for a RBI single. Lester and Ross no doubt made note of this, and it can be seen in how they attacked Holliday in the first inning.
Holliday struggled in September (.182/.217/.318), receiving just 23 plate appearances once he returned from the DL, and he did not face Lester in either of his September starts against St. Louis. However, Holliday did put together good numbers this season against left-handed pitchers (.246/.403/.393).
After a Matt Carpenter flyout and Stephen Piscotty ground-rule double, Holliday stepped to the plate with one out and a runner on second base.
Lester started Holliday with a 93-mph four-seam fastball, which Ross wanted inside, but rode back over the plate. Holliday fouled it off. This pitch selection was hardly a surprise, as in September, Lester threw first pitch four-seam fastballs to 62.42 percent of right-handed batters and 58 percent of all batters. Holliday slugged .174 against the pitch from left-handers this season.
As we wrote exhaustively in our two Lester postseason pieces, the key for him was to get ahead early with his four-seam fastball to expand the strike zone with cutter and curve. He had accomplished that on the first pitch.
How did each perform in 0-1 counts this season?
Lester on 0-and-1 against right-handed batters…
.346 AVG, .473 SLG, .127 ISO
Lester was tremendous all season against right-handed batters (.237/.290/.372, 28.0 percent strikeout rate), but he struggled slightly in 0-and-1 counts. The majority of the damage came against the cutter (.500 AVG and .778 SLP), which accounted for 54 percent of his total bases in the situation, despite his 34.5 percent usage rate with the cutter.
He went to the four-seam 34.2 percent of the time in the situation, and hitters slugged .294 with no extra-base hits. Lester mixed in the curve and change about 10 percent of the time.
In six September starts, he allowed just eight hits to righties in any count (four off the four-seamer).
Holliday on 0-and-1 against left-handed pitchers…
.200 AVG and .200 SLG
Entering tonight, Holliday had just one hit in 0-1 counts, and it came on a change. In the situation in the second half, Holliday had seen 80 percent four-seam fastballs and sinkers, and he had not produced. In fact, since the All-Star break, Holliday had just two hits against four-seam fastballs from left-handed pitchers in any count.
As you can see below, Holliday’s limited playing time meant he did not see many four-seam fastballs, but when he did, pitchers had success when they kept the ball over the plate and up in the zone:
Holliday had more success when pitchers stayed in the bottom of the zone with four-seamers, like on his Opening Night single against Lester.
The Pitch
Ross set up on the inner half of the plate, just below the belt. Lester hit his spot with a 93-mph four-seam fastball, but Holliday got on top of the pitch and lined it into center field for a base hit. Piscotty would slide in ahead of Ross’ tag, and it would be the only run the Cardinals would need.
Holliday had shown a propensity for taking four-seam fastballs from Lester this season, and Lester and Ross saw a good opportunity to get ahead 0-2. Unlike in their April matchup, Lester kept the fastball up, where Holliday has struggled.
Ross called a good pitch, one Holliday did not have a hit off in that situation in 2015, and Lester executed properly. It was Lester’s strength against Holliday’s weakness, but Holliday was able to get his bat head through the zone. As a wiser bumper sticker than myself once said, “Sh** happens.”
Lead photo courtesy of Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports