Top Play (WPA): Think anyone is busy writing Kris Bryant service time stories now? The Cubs’ superstar third baseman hit a two-run home run in the fifth inning (+0.252) off of Cardinals starter Michael Wacha—one of six the Cubs hit on the night, setting a new major-league record—and helped the Cubs go up two games to one in the National League Division Series against the Cardinals. Despite a shaky start from ace Jake Arrieta, the Cubs offense never stopped clicking on Monday night in Chicago, adding on to a second-inning run in the fourth, fifth, sixth, and eighth innings.
The Cardinals did their best to answer, plating two runs in the ninth on a Stephen Piscotty home run to right field, but that only prolonged the inevitable; the Cubs were more able, tonight, to take advantage of mistake pitches and drive the ball with the wind, which was howling out to right-center at 17 miles per hour at first pitch. The Cubs looked quietly confident after the game, as they have all year: Kris Bryant smiled calmly as he demurred on questions about his mini-slump of late; Jorge Soler grinned much more loudly as he talked about how good he feels at the plate right now. But more on that later…
Bottom Play (WPA): The Cubs looked like they might get to Wacha early in this one. As it turned out they got to him late, but they had a disappointing moment early on. In the first inning, Anthony Rizzo came to the plate with Bryant on first (single) and Soler on second. The Cubs were looking aggressive, with the chance to put some runs on the board early. Maddon had discussed the importance of that moment in pregame.
“I like that [scoring first] every game,” said Maddon. “That’s one of the things I talk about in Spring Training. I think normally if you can score first, that does permit your group to relax just a click.”
The Cubs would eventually manage to do just that, an inning later, but in the first inning Soler was dancing a bit farther off of second than you’d usually see in that situation. When Rizzo lined the ball to shortstop Jhonny Peralta, Soler was already past Peralta on his way to third base. The Cardinals’ shortsop stepped on second, and the inning was over (-0.085). From that point on, things kept going back and forth for the two teams until the …
Key Moment: When Jason Heyward stepped to the plate in the Cardinals half of the seventh inning, his team was down by three, Piscotty was standing on second base, and Matt Holliday was on first. Heyward was already 2-for-3 on the night, with a double in the first and a home run the previous inning, putting the game at 5-4 entering the bottom of the sixth. That closeness—and a single and an error that led up to the moment—brought Joe Maddon to the mound to replace Trevor Cahill with Travis Wood. I’d usually break down the sequence here, but it didn’t take long for Wood to do his job. He threw just one pitch to the Cardinals’ slugger and got what he was looking for: a flyout to Kyle Schwarber in left field. With that, the Cardinals were retired and headed to the bottom of the inning down a run.
There were a lot of potential turning points in this game, which swung back and forth constantly until the Cubs settled in for good after the seventh, but one more is worth noting here: in the fourth inning, Addison Russell sent a liner to the wall in left-center that looked like a double off the bat. Russell didn’t think so. He made a hard turn around second and made it to third under Matt Carpenter’s tag with a headfirst slide. Seconds later, the Cubs’ athletic trainer came out to check on Russell, prompting gasps from the crowd. A few minutes later, Russell was removed from the game in favor of Javier Baez. The initial—and reasonable—assumption was that Russell had injured his finger on the headfirst slide, but the Cubs later announced that he’d felt “tightness” in his left hamstring. If he’s gone for any length of time—he’ll have tests tomorrow, and Maddon said after the game that he was “absolutely uncertain” about his status—then the Cubs will find themselves with that many fewer options the rest of the way in October.
Trend to Watch: Here’s Soler’s performance so far this series: two homers, a double, a single, and five walks. That’s nine times on base in—wait for it—nine plate appearances. Maddon looked smart again on Monday, leaving Soler in the game to face Adam Wainwright in the sixth. The massive Cuban rewarded his manager’s confidence by launching a 397-foot blast to left center, putting the Cubs up 7-4. Soler’s looking just as disciplined as he did back in April these days, taking pitches when necessary and driving them when not. And he’s having fun again; just watch his postgame presser for a view of how that looks. It’s good news for the Cubs not just in the short term—though of course they’ll take it, and happily—but also for Soler in the long run. After arriving with a bang and posting an 1.177 OPS in his first 14 big-league games in 2014, we’ve waited to see a stretch where he’s dominated big-league pitching in the same way. This might just be it.
Coming Next: The Cubs will look to punch their ticket to the NLCS on Tuesday at Wrigley, with Jason Hammel on the mound for his first postseason appearance in a Cubs uniform. Hammel was warm and relaxed in pregame comments on Monday, focused more on the broad arc of his time with the Cubs than on the specifics of Tuesday’s start.
“From last year to this year, it’s night and day,” Hammel said. “Obviously you feel a good vibe around town, lots of blue walking around, and you know, I just think the pride that this city already has with its sports teams has been—I mean, it’s glowing now. The whole city is talking about obviously the Cubs … it’s an honor to wear the stripes. That’s why I wanted to come back. I had a blast last year for the three months that I was here, and like I said earlier, there was a lot of good things happening, and who wouldn’t want to be a part of a winner?”
That’s a man who’s happy to be here. Hammel’s struggled lately, but his last start—in Cincinnati on the first of October—was his best in the last month: five innings, no runs, and five strikeouts. The Cardinals, fighting against elimination, will be a much tougher opponent than the Reds playing out the string, but Hammel sounded mentally ready for them on Monday.
“Obviously, when you’re not going right it’s hard to kind of get out of your own way, but in those moments you kind of have to tease yourself and almost trick yourself into thinking you are really good, even when you’re not performing to what you know you can do,” Hammel said prior to the Cubs Game Three victory. “I go back to the success I’ve had, go check out some video but not worry about it too much. Just always—success in sports, anything really, is confidence, and as long as I keep the confidence in myself I’ll be fine.”
The Cardinals won 100 games this season for a reason (several, actually), and they won’t go down Tuesday without a fight. If the Cubs are going to advance to their first NLCS since 2003, they’ll need Hammel to be more than fine. Starting for the Cardinals will be John Lackey, who dominated the Cubs in Game One. In the post-game, Bryant said he wouldn’t do much differently against Lackey this time, just enjoy the moment and try to clinch in front of the home crowd. What a sight that would be.
Lead photo courtesy Jerry Lai-USA Today Sports.