Game 22 Recap: Cubs 6 Braves 1

This one was close… until it wasn’t.

Top Play: The lowly Braves played the Cubs to an unlikely draw through seven and a half innings, but it couldn’t last. After loading the bases in the seventh inning but failing to score, the Cubs loaded them again in the eighth, and Anthony Rizzo was due this time, with one out. Rizzo has had a dizzying number of RBI opportunities over the course of the season, thanks to the relentless patience and on-base skills of Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Kris Bryant, and he’s cashed them in at a pretty fair rate. This time, he hit an absolute screamer, 105 miles per hour off the bat, and although it didn’t have the elevation to do a ton of damage, it pushed home the go-ahead run, putting the Cubs on the right side of 90 percent Win Expectancy. It was the most vital hit of the day (+0.143 WPA), though probably not the most memorable for most people.

Bottom Play: The inning before, same situation, bases loaded, tied 1-1, one out. This time, though, David Ross was up to bat, and although he, too, hit it hard, this one was a ground ball that turned into a rally-killing double play (-0.237 WPA). This is the unfortunate price the Cubs will pay, sometimes, to have Ross catch Jon Lester’s starts and coach the co-ace through one anxious moment after another. In this case, Lester’s day was already over, but with Kyle Schwarber out for the season and Miguel Montero on the DL, Ross was more or less the best option, anyway. Even so, Ross had a fair day at the plate, notching another RBI, and his defensive value (both tangible and otherwise) more than offsets the offensive detriment.

Key Moment: Without doubt, the game turned in the top of the seventh inning, when the Braves loaded the bases with no outs and the score tied. It’s not just that they got that way; it’s how it happened. After two singles to left field, Erick Aybar laid down a bunt right back to Lester, and firm. It could have been a double play, in some pitchers’ hands. In Lester’s, it became a single, because the yips-plagued hurler grabbed the ball and simply froze.

As bad as Lester’s throwing and fielding problems have become, though, his pitching remains good enough to overcome them. That’s somewhat remarkable, really. Lester bore down and, without the Braves even trying a squeeze bunt, got two straight strikeouts. Nick Markakis then bounced to first base, ending the rally and sending the crowd into a frenzy. Lester fanned 10 in seven strong innings, and continues to be too good to be stopped by a little thing like crippling psychological blocks.

Trend to Watch: With the Cubs having their depth tested early by injuries (Kris Bryant’s the latest to go down, though it seems a minor thing, and maybe he would play this weekend if a tougher opponent were in town), the big trend of note is that the depth pieces have been performing sensationally. Tommy La Stella had another phenomenal day at the plate, and Matt Szczur’s grand slam provided the punctuation and the main highlight of the day. The top-line names have to stop getting hurt, and some of them have to play better than they have early on, but if the Cubs keep getting this from their supporting cast, they’re going to be really, really good.

What’s Next: Tomorrow should mark the starting debut of Tim Federowicz behind the plate, and will definitely see John Lackey back on the mound at Wrigley to face Julio Teheran. That’s if the game happens: rain is in the forecast from shortly before the 1:20 start time until late afternoon. It could be a day of long delays. A good thing, then, that Lester worked a strong seven, and Hector Rondon worked such a quick ninth inning that he’ll certainly be available.

Lead photo courtesy David Banks—USA Today Sports