In May, Cubs Will Face New Challenges

The Cubs currently have a run differential of +83. The next best team’s run differential? +40. The North Siders finished April with a 17-6 record. They won seven of 10 home games. They saw Jake Arrieta throw his second career no-hitter. They currently own the second best bullpen and rotation in the NL. They aren’t just projected to be the best team in baseball going into the season, they are the best team in baseball.

Everyone knew that the Cubs were expected to be an extraordinarily good club in 2016, but it’d be hard to find anyone who expected them to be this dominant right out of the gate. All eyes have been on the Cubs since the season kicked off just four weeks ago, and the Cubs have delivered their message: they’re here, and they’re just as good as you thought they’d be — if not better.

The most impressive part of this dominance is certainly that it’s survived in the face of adversity. The type of adversity that when all met at once would have certainly have had strong ramifications on nearly any other team. Starters relied upon for their offense have scuffled in the month of April, hitting less than .250. Catcher Miguel Montero is currently on the 15-day DL, forcing the Cubs to play David Ross more—a bat who once was thought to be a liability to the Cubs’ offense. Oh, and let’s not forget about Kyle Schwarber. The highly touted young slugger’s year ended two games into the season, yet the Cubs didn’t break a sweat. This team still managed to pull off the best start in baseball ending the month of April 17-6 with only the Washington Nationals nearby in their rearview mirror.

However, dominance like this is not sheer luck, that you can say with confidence. It’s simply a disproportion of talent, seeing as the Cubs were matched with weaker opponents clustered into one month than they’d normally see. During the month of April, the Cubs only faced two teams that are playing over .500, leaving plenty of room for the dominance they displayed to come to their aid.

The Cubs may have surpassed expectations due to the ease of their April schedule, but even with the regression that’s due, they’ll still be one of the best teams in baseball even if they don’t remain the best. Let’s take a look at a few of the reasons why despite regression, the Cubs will still be good in May.

April left them confident, focused, and ready

April may have seemed like a cake walk for the Cubs, and perhaps some may view that as having left this team too comfortable going into the remainder of the season. But perhaps hidden beneath the ease of April’s schedule was a deeper and more valuable purpose; to instill confidence in this club right out of the gate. Instead of attempting to construct a midseason pep rally in the middle of a play-off race, they’ve set the tempo for themselves right from the start. Their early success has also set a tone throughout the league, it has created the way that their opponents will perceive them; all eyes are on them, and they’re showing everyone watching that they’re simply here to win. The best team in baseball won’t be on the Cubs’ May schedule, because they are the best team in baseball right now.

“If you play teams with less-than (.500) records and maybe they’re not playing as well, you don’t turn that dimmer switch up to the full velocity. But when you’re playing really good teams, I think that naturally brings out the best in you.” said Cubs manager Joe Maddon of the April schedule.

“I don’t think anybody in here views any series different from any other,” Jake Arrieta told the Tribune’s Paul Sullivan on Sunday. “I don’t. I think everybody here has a pretty good understanding there’s not a game throughout the season that isn’t important.” Looking ahead at the May schedule, certainly the Cubs will face tougher opponents, but the focus will remain the same—raise the W flag. Keep your eye on the prize.

“We’re focused. I don’t think we put any added importance on one game over another.” Arrieta said.

The offense is still heating up

Right now, the Cubs aren’t quite leading in many of the batting categories the way that you’d think they were when looking at the success they’ve had so far this season. They’re currently 8th in batting average and slugging percentage, and 4th in TAv. The pitching staff and bullpen’s strong starts are what have mitigating the damage and allowed the Cubs run differential to sore to unprecedented levels (the Cubs currently have a RS/9 of 6.08 while only allowing a RS/9 of 2.63). But right now, we’re looking at a team whose offense had included three starters whose slash lines look like this:

We know that this is probably just a flukey baseball thing; according to Statcast data, Jason Heyward has been hitting balls so hard that they probably have bruises on them, we know that Addison Russell’s true talent level is much higher than the slash line he’s putting up at the moment, while Miguel Montero has only had 57 plate appearances and is undergoing a DL stint. This is simply a bump in the road, and these three will join the likes of Fowler, Bryant, Zobrist, and Rizzo with their flourishing numbers soon enough. It’s also worth nothing that Anthony Rizzo will find his groove, and will perk up his .230 average that is currently being heavily out shined by his .575 slugging percentage.

It’s technically still early in the season. The nights will get warmer in May, the winds will begin to pick up at Wrigley Field, and the offense—though I can’t believe I’m saying this—will actually become stronger. Should the pitching begin to regress a little, let it be at the time during which the dimmer switch Maddon is referring to turns up to its full velocity.

Their plate discipline has been one of their biggest allies

One thing that’s worth noting in the table above is that despite the less than impressive batting average and slugging percentage these “scuffling” players are posting, they are keeping their on base percentage in check at or just below league average. Then there’s Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist who are posting OBPs of .385 and higher along with leader of the pack Fowler and his .476 (!) OBP.

The Cubs are currently second in the NL in OBP, and they lead the league in walk rate at 13.4 percent. That’s nearly three percentage points higher than the first place Pirates. The Cubs are seeing on average 3.98 pitches per plate appearance as well. They’re currently striking out at the third lowest clip in the NL, and are tied for first with the lowest outside the zone swinging percentage at 22 percent.

Not only are they able to take their walks in order to ramp up their on base percentage, but the discipline that they’ve demonstrated at the plate has allowed them to carefully cherry pick the perfect pitches to hit. If you watch carefully, you see that these guys aren’t going up there swinging the bat at “meh” pitches, they’ll foul off the ones they need to, taking the ones off the plate, and as we’ve seen, hitting the perfect ones over the fences and into the gaps. Their patient approach has been a key piece of their offensive success so far in 2016, if not the foundation of it. Should they keep it up, even against the toughest of opponents, they’ll have a good shot at continuing their winning ways.

The May schedule looks tough, but they’ll still face weak opponents

The most concerning part of May at the moment is likely the four game set against the Nationals this upcoming weekend at Wrigley Field. The way the rotation was setup in Pittsburgh due to the rainouts last week, we will likely see the Cubs doling out their back end starters for part of the series. The Nationals have been suffering from quite anemic hitting to start the season, posting a team slash line of just .235/.307/.392, only walking at a 8.8 percent clip and striking out 21.8 percent of the time. For the Nationals, it’s their pitching (much like the Cubs) that has carried them. But if the Cubs offense can squeak enough runs past their aces, and mitigate the run totals against the illustrious bats of D.C., perhaps it won’t be an entirely unfortunate time for the Cubs against arguably their most quality opponent right now.

The Cubs will go on to face other prominent teams in May, such as the San Francisco Giants, before going on to face their fiercest rivals in the St. Louis Cardinals and ending the month at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But the important thing to note in May is that despite the Cubs facing five teams that are above .500 (and some of them barely above it at that), they’ll also face weaker opponents such as Milwaukee and San Diego, series in which they can look to gain some ground. The Phillies series could remain a question mark, as though Philadelphia has been slated to be a team struggling through a rebuild in 2015, they’re playing ball well over .500 and have faced a few stronger opponents themselves.

Now that the Cubs have shown us a glimpse at what they can truly bring to the table in 2016, May will truly be the month in which we see if this Cubs team is authentic as they appeared in April.

“The goal is obviously to win the division. And getting off to a hot start is the way you go about doing that. We’re where we intended to be at this point in the season.” Arrieta said of the team’s April run.

The Cubs haven’t ceased to amaze since 2015, so why stop now? Look at May as simply a challenge, and what fun is success without a few challenges?

Lead photo courtesy Charles LeClaire—USA Today Sports.