The Sustainability of Jason Hammel’s Early Success

In nearly any other year, more of the space here at BP Wrigleyville would be devoted to lauding the early success of Jason Hammel, who, in some ways, has outshone his colleagues in the starting rotation, but we are in the midst of a pitching showcase from Jake Arrieta that is otherworldly, so the work of Hammel can easily sit mostly unnoticed. I tend toward a bit of anxiety about his pitching, especially in the early going, because of second half collapses that have historically been as epic as his first half successes, but this season looks like one that could change that trend because of the work that he’s done in the offseason and changes in his pitch usage and effectiveness.

Last season showed the dichotomy between his first and second halves at perhaps its finest, when his walk rate nearly doubled and his WHIP climbed from 0.95 to 1.49 from the first half of the season to the second. In 2015 at least, this could be at least partially attributed to injury, but this brutal first/second half decline was also evident during his 2014 season, when he moved to the American League via trade in July. But, I come to praise Hammel, not to bury him. Whatever does happen in the waning months of this season, he’s had significant success through his first five starts and he thinks the reason for that decline is about more than just a move to a different team or an injury.

As far as this season has gone, his start against the Pirates on Monday was arguably his worst, but if you subtract a mistake pitch to Andrew McCutchen in the first inning, even that outing has a very different look to it. Even when he was “bad” on Monday, he threw five innings and allowed just two runs. Otherwise, he’s pitched a quality start in all four of his other trips to the mound and has twice gone without giving up a run. His FIP thus far suggests that he’s eventually going to surrender more runs than he has to this point, but not necessarily at a rate that would portend some doom for him as the season goes on.

The question then becomes one of what he has done so far in 2016 that has led to this success. On the surface, he’s stranding runners at a much higher rate than he ever has, to the clip of nearly 92 percent, where his previous career best was just over 78 percent in 2014. Opposing batters have just a .260 BABIP against him, which is also at a career best. It’s twelve points lower than his previous best, which was also in 2014. These things are probably just as much about Hammel as they are about the defense behind him, but Hammel has also done some other things better this season than he has previously.

Namely, he has thrown more of his slider this season than he has in previous years. It’s been his most used pitch, though his four seam fastball still doesn’t lag too far behind. The difference so far has been the fact that he uses the fastball less and has instead been throwing his slider. For a simple visual, look at the frequency for his career prior to 2016 (from Brooks Baseball):

Then, while acknowledging the difference in sample size, this is what he’s done so far this season:

That’s a big difference in usage of both his slider and his sinker. (Hey, you know who else throws a lot of those pitches and not as many four seam fastballs? Jake Arrieta.) He’s also going to the slider more as his third strike pitch and is using his curveball less in that situation. His slider is also hitting the strike zone at a higher rate than last year, and it’s yielding more whiffs from opposing batters (up to 20.3 percent in 2016 from 17.7 percent last year). Given that batters are more likely to swing at this pitch than any of his others and couple that with the fact that they are missing on it more often, Hammel is probably finding a pitch that is a more reliable “go-to” than it has been in the past. The slider can be a beautiful pitch that is a nightmare to hitters when it finds its spot, but that nightmare can reverse for the pitcher when it doesn’t move the way that it should.

There are also changes to his approach off of the mound, as described in the Chicago Tribune a few weeks ago after Hammel successfully worked out of a jam against the Reds that would probably have been his undoing at the end of last season.

There were reports as spring training was starting of changes to his routine (here and here), even down to the growth of a beard that is eerily similar to Arrieta’s, and the result has been a pitcher who is in better shape than he’s been thus far in his career and presumably better equipped to pitch effectively deeper into the season. Going to Arrieta for fitness routine advice is a good idea for any of us, and Hammel emphasized during spring training that he thinks his struggles late in the season last year weren’t just about a leg injury; in fact, he believes they were probably more about his fitness.

Hammel’s frustrations with getting lifted early from his starts last year were evident, but give him credit—he’s clearly taken those frustrations and channeled them into making the changes that are the cause of this early success. He’s approached the two issues that he thought contributed most to the problems in the second half of the season, and he’s seemingly corrected them. So far. I’ll grant anyone a bit of skepticism, as we’ve seen Hammel pitch really successfully early on and then crumble, but his offseason work does tend to indicate that we might very possibly see a much different Hammel in the second half of this season.

Lead photo courtesy David Kohl—USA Today Sports.