Series Preview: Washington Nationals, May 5-8

The 2016 Chicago Cubs are essentially the 2015 Washington Nationals. The 2016 Nationals are finally playing the way everyone expected the 2015 Nationals to play: well. The 2016 Cubs were hoping to avoid the fate of the 2015 Nationals.

Confused yet?

All you need to know is that the 2016 Chicago Cubs are what the 2015 Nationals were last season: the favorites. After they signed Max Scherzer to a $210 million contract, they boasted a rotation so good that they had to demote Tanner Roark (he of the 2.7 WARP in 198 innings in 2014) to the bullpen. It was the one big, bold move that put the Nationals at the top of everyone’s preseason prediction list.

While the Cubs took a slightly different path, their off-season did include the signing of Ben Zobrist, John Lackey, and Jason Heyward for a combined value of over $270 million (gulp!). The net effect was the same: the Cubs were deemed the “winners” of their respective offseasons and began the season as clear favorites to go all the way.

The 2015 Nationals, in other words, were a cautionary tale for these Cubs. They were confronted with several injuries, massive performance drops from certain players, and clubhouse issues that led to a disappointing 83-win season in which they finished second behind the New York Mets. When the Cubs were called the favorites to win it all before the season began, it was understandable to feel a little nervous about it all.

But all that is in the past, and what we’re left with for this series is the top two teams in the National League squaring off at Wrigley Field for four games of what I’m predicting will be very good baseball. It should be a fun series no matter what happens.

Probables

While the matchup of two hyped-up teams is pretty exciting, what’s even more exciting is seeing two of the best pitching teams in baseball squaring off against each other. Unfortunately, the stars aren’t going to align—we will not see a premiere matchup like an Arrieta vs. Strasburg or Lester vs. Scherzer. Instead, game one has Kyle Hendricks battling against Joe Ross, who is pitching out of his mind right now with an ERA under one (0.79) and a 2.88 FIP. Ross left his April 20 start with blister problems but came back against St. Louis and seemed to be just fine thank you, tossing six innings of one-run ball. Hendricks, on the other hand, will continue to figure out the right mix of 87 mph fastballs and change ups to neutralize an offense that’s yet to find its groove.

Game two features a day game pairing the aforementioned Scherzer against Lackey in what amounts to a battle of the veterans of these two relatively young starting rotations. Scherzer actually has the worse ERA and FIP of all the Nationals starters (3.55 ERA and 3.74 FIP), but he figured something out in his last start against the Cardinals and started getting more on top of the ball. It worked: he had his best start of the season, shutting out the Redbirds for 7 innings, allowing just four hits and striking out nine. Lackey is coming off a pretty good start of his own, when he threw eight innings and allowed just two earned runs against the Atlanta Braves.

Gio Gonzalez and Jason Hammel square up for game three and look for Gonzalez’s pitch count to factor into this one. In his last two starts, he threw 108 and 102 pitches without making it into the 8th either time. Combine that with the Cubs’ patient approach and it’s likely Gonzalez won’t be around for long in this one. Hammel, on the other hand, has kept his pitch counts low all season, but that’s mostly due to Maddon pulling him as soon as he throws six innings. While much has been made about the Cubs not sticking to their pitching plan to use their long relievers, Hammel seems to be the guy that Maddon feels most comfortable executing this stategy with. So if you want to catch a glimpse of Adam Warren and Trevor Cahill, stay tuned to this one.

To close things out, Jake Arrieta is scheduled to throw a two hitter against Tanner Roark. This is probably the matchup I’m most looking forward to, and only 95 percent of it is because it’s Arrieta Day. When Scherzer was signed, I spent a lot of time wondering what Roark was feeling after having a spectacular season in his debut as a full-time Major League starter, only to be demoted to the pen because they Nationals figured they needed the rotation to be “even better.” What else can a young pitcher do to stick in the rotation? It seemed so unfair to me, but I guess that’s baseball. Either way, the Wilmington native is back in the rotation and pitching even better than he did in 2014. He has a 2.88 FIP and is striking out 8 hitters per nine innings. As for Arrieta… well, what else can you say?

What to Watch For

If you’re a baseball purist, sit back and enjoy what should be some of the best non-playoff baseball you’ll see this season. These two teams are among the best at pitching and defending, so I would look for low-scoring games where managers Dusty Baker and Joe Maddon try to outmaneuver each other in an effort to scratch some runs across. Maddon will surely have plenty of opportunities to get creative with all the options this roster gives him, while Baker will try to… well, not clog up the bases? Sorry, I couldn’t resist.

This series will be a great test for a Cubs’ offense that has still not found its groove. Sure, they’ve been consistently stringing together long at bats and seeing a bunch of pitches, but against a team like the Nationals, they’ll have to hit if they want to win. The Cubs haven’t faced pitching this good so far this season, and now would be a great time for guys like Addison Russell and Jason Heyward to break out and get into a nice groove.

Daniel Murphy. The last time the Cubs saw him he was playing out of his mind, and right now he’s doing something close to it. He’s slashing .376/.431/.613, while posting a robust .372 TAv. The man, as they say, is on fire. The only other players with a higher TAv then Murphy? Hunter Pence and Dexter Fowler. It’ll be very interesting to see how the Cubs pitch to him in this series—it wouldn’t be surprising if they pitched around-ish to him and Bryce Harper and force the rest of the team to come alive.

These two teams are eerily similar to each other, with both having some players that just haven’t hit a lick. But they’ve also been carried by one or two guys and some great pitching, and that’s all they’ve needed to win a bunch of games. The Cubs come into this series having won 7 of their last 8 games and the Nationals 5 of their last 6, including a 13-2 drubbing of the current champions, the Kansas City Royals. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy have been very good, in much the same way Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo have shouldered most of the load (and Kris Bryant is also heating up).

In short, we have two teams that have eerily similar numbers on pitching and defense (both very good), and more of a disparity on the offensive side:

Broadcast Information

Tonight’s game starts at 7:05 pm and is airing on CSN. Friday and Saturday both feature day games (at 1:20 pm and 3:05 pm respectively) that you can catch on CSN. The finale on Sunday will be on WGN at 1:20 pm. All games are on 670 AM on the radio, and all times are CST.

Lead photo courtesy Peter Aiken—USA Today Sports.