Almost, but just not enough tonight.
Top Play (WPA): No surprise, but the third inning that featured both Kris Bryant’s deep shot to center and the Ben Zobrist single the preceded a Jorge Soler walk increased the Cubs’ win expectancy the most. After Soler walked, the Cubs win expectancy sat at 36.5%, which was the highest point it would reach all night.
First, the Bryant homer (+.109). He worked the count full with one out and fired a hanger to straightaway center to make the score 2-1 at the time. The Cubs threatened further later in the same inning, when Jorge Soler followed Ben Zobrist’s single with a walk to put them on first and second with two outs, but Javy Baez flew out to center for the third out of the inning. This was the last time the Cubs would be within a run of tying the game.
Bryant’s homer marks his second in as many games and third in the last week. The Cubs added two more runs later in the game on a Javy Baez single up the middle that scored Soler after he doubled off the wall in right and then on Dexter Fowler’s 9th inning solo homer, but they wouldn’t come close enough to really threaten the San Francisco lead again.
Bottom Play (WPA): Matt Cain’s unexpected RBI double was the most costly play of the game in terms of WPA (-.222). It made the score 2-0, and gave the Giants a big boost off of Jon Lester right off the bat.
Key Moment: Really, it was Buster Posey’s two-run homerun in the third (-.122). I would argue that Cain’s RBI double in the second inning was perhaps a bit more prescient of the game’s outcome, but until Posey put the Giants up 4-1 in the third, this game was very much in reach for the Cubs. Kris Bryant had done his best to keep things close in the previous half inning, but Posey’s shot to left efffectively ended any strong possibility of a Cubs comeback as Matt Cain worked through a high pitch count to keep the Cubs offense at bay from there.
With Joe Panik on base, Posey used a 2-1 pitch from Lester to double the Giants’ tally and ultimately put this game away. Lester was able to record another out after this, but the Posey homer also signaled the end of Lester’s start as well.
Trend to Watch: It didn’t prove fruitful tonight, but in both of the last two games, the Cubs offense had much greater success in extending at bats and running up the opposing starter’s pitch count quickly. Unfortunately, Matt Cain was able to work through this and hold the Cubs to just the one run on Kris Bryant’s solo shot to deep center. Cain was able to throw six very solid innings and ended with a pitch count of 105. Again, though the elevated pitch count did not yield the result we hope for, it’s an encouraging sign after a series in Milwaukee that was such a struggle for the offense.
Anthony Rizzo has really been serving up rough at bats lately (he was 1 for his last 21 before going 0 for 5 tonight). It’s one of those things though that looks worse than it is until you stop to see that those numbers really just represent one week’s worth of games. In the previous week, he was 9 for 33, so look for this to change.
As Isaac Bennett has warned in his series of posts (most recently here) on the starting pitching, regression is coming, and perhaps tonight was just a bit of that. Jon Lester has had a genuinely excellent seasons thus far, so an outing like tonight’s is a bit of a shock to the system, but not a sign of anything that merits concern. The Cubs bullpen has been taxed pretty heavily in the past week, but Trevor Cahill deserves mention for stopping the scoring after Lester had to leave. He threw 2.1 scoreless innings and recorded three strikeouts and gave up just one hit.
Finally, and dare I say it? Jorge Soler has looked pretty good at the plate in his last two games. Not a trend yet, but worth keeping an eye on given the likelihood of increased playing time over the next few games with Jason Heyward resting a contusion in his side.
Coming Next: This series concludes tomorrow night on ESPN at 7:05 pm CT. Kyle Hendricks draws the short straw of going up against Madison Bumgarner. as the Cubs look to avoid a second consecutive series loss before traveling to face their divisional rival in St. Louis.
Lead photo courtesy Kelley L Cox—USA Today Sports