The Cubs at 70: How’re They Doing?

The mighty Cubs struck out three times against their mortal enemy St. Louis Cardinals. This means that they are limping, somewhat, into the 70 game mark of the season. 70 games is an important demarcation line in the season is because this is the point where Russell Carleton, writing at the mothership, found that run differential stabilizes. Here is the key quote for our purposes, “So, we can say that after 70 games, a team has a sample that’s independently big enough to make statements about its true talent level.”

The Cubs had a rough visit from the St. Louis Cardinals the past 3 days. Their chances at a division title were barely dented, but their chances at history took far more damage. The Cubs had already lost their bid to go an entire season without losing 3 games in a row like the 1902 Pirates, but the faint hopes of tying the 116 wins by the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners or match the 411 runs the 1939 Yankees beat their opponents seem even more fleeting now. Those were perhaps silly goals, but it is no less remarkable how the Cubs have begun the 2016 campaign.    

The end of World War II and the integration of baseball are two major events that mark baseball becoming the modern game we know. There have been just 11 teams since 1945 to have a run differential over 120. Here are those teams.

 The Cubs, despite suffering an ignominious sweep at the hand of the Cardinals, still have the best run differential since World War II. The only team that is remotely close is the 1969 Orioles. The 1939 Yankees are the record-holder for top run differential at the end of the season. The Cubs are not close to the 224 runs the ‘39 Yankees had beaten their opponents by after game 70. The 2016 Cubs drop to tenth if you extend the run differential leaderboard back to the implementation of the foul strike rule in the National League. Still, these are impressive numbers piled up by the Cubs in measures that more strongly correlate with future success.   

The Cubs are very likely to win a spot in the playoffs. Their playoff odds by most estimations rest in the high nineties. Simultaneously, these Cubs are very likely to be the best Cubs you have ever seen by almost any measure of team strength, but the odds also strongly suggest that this will not be “the year”. The best team in baseball does not always when the World Series, and in fact with the expanded playoff format it is accurate to say that the best baseball team does not even win a majority of World Series championships. Now, this year has a better chance of being “the year” than many others, but it’s still a longshot. That’s just the nature of baseball.

For many that sneered at the team’s regular season accomplishments it will be proof that the team lacked some secret ability necessary to succeed in the MLB postseason. They will be vindicated. They saw the chink in the Cubs’ mithril armor when no one else did, and the crucible of postseason baseball finally exposed it for all to see. Overwrought narratives will be constructed around the ultimate small size that is the MLB playoffs.

This is the point where you are reminded how young the Cubs team is, and how it is poised for a window of sustained success unseen on the Northside of Chicago since the early aughts of the twentieth century. This is all true. The Cubs are very likely, though not guaranteed, to have many more chances at ending the most iconic championship drought in sports. But knowing all of this will do little to comfort if the most-likely scenario unfolds, and the Cubs follow in the path of all of those great regular season sports teams you can list that failed to win it all.

 This most-likely scenario is where we will have to construct meaning out of the 2016 season. The Cubs have shown us things that have not been seen in a lifetime by a Chicago National League ball club or in baseball. If this team falls short, does that invalidate all that has come beforehand? The answer is obviously no, but the 2001 Mariners are a piece of trivia. The 2016 Cubs might not even be that since they are unlikely to set records. The Cubs team that does break through will certainly be more celebrated than a regular season championship. So what are we left with?

A special team that has the greatest chance to provide the ultimate prize in most of our lifetimes. The accomplishments of this team need to be celebrated because they may be fleeting. The Cubs have only marginally improved their odds of winning a World Series by these wins, runs scored and allowed. But they have been tremendous, and that’s worth celebrating.

Lead photo courtesy Matt Marton—USA Today Sports.