The Astros outhit the Cubs for the second straight game, but this time managed to score two runs first. Two runs is apparently the most runs teams are allowed to score while playing in Houston. So it was a good strategy by A.J. Hinch to call for an early Alex Bregman home run. A couple of bunts helped the Astros net their second run of the game in the critical third inning against John Lackey. The Cubs managed to get one of those runs back right away largely around Miguel Montero’s double. That was the Cubs second and only extra base hit on the afternoon. Walks gave the Cubs multiple chances at tying the game, but the Astros’ bullpen came through in all the big spots.
The Cubs have certainly cooled off from the ridiculous August with a 5-4 record in September. That would be a larger concern if the most recent World Series winner hadn’t played their worst month of ball in September. Or if you realize as many, many do that the playoffs are a crapshoot. Still, it would be nice to have the magic numbers decrease by actions of this team.
Top Play (WPA): The top play for the Cubs occurred in the ninth inning when Anthony Rizzo drew a leadoff walk against Ken Giles (.115). The former Phillies ace reliever has found that elite level in the second half, but the command was wobble throughout his appearance today. Rizzo was taken down for a pinch runner. The move paid immediate dividends as Matt Szczur was able to scamper into scoring position with no outs.
Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom play happened just one play later than the top one. Jorge Soler facing a right-handed power pitcher with a wicked slider and it played out like most of the times Soler has faced a good right handed slider (-.134). Giles bounced the first one in the dirt that allowed Szczur to move into scoring position. Soler took a called strike on the lower outside corner next, and then watched a high slider called for a ball. Giles snapped off the best one of the sequence for a swinging strike to even the count, and then Soler swung through a slider up in the zone for a key first out of the inning. Montero advanced Szczur to third on a groundout to first, but Willson Contreras struck out on a 99 MPH fastball to end the game.
Key Moment: The Astros run scoring plays were all important. The Bregman home run was a big lift for the Astros after Lackey managed to escape a bases-loaded one out jam the inning prior. The Jose Altuve bunt to get on base immediately after the Bregman blast or the Marwin Gonzalez sacrifice squeeze to make it 2-0 were big moments as well. But the first inning set the tone for the Cubs offense. Dexter Fowler led off the game with a single, and wound up at second on the strangest error I can recall with Marwin Gonzalez throwing the ball into foul territory as the ball was brought back into the infield. Kris Bryant hit a 2-1 pitch right to the shortstop. The key moment that swung this game was when Colin McHugh struck out Anthony Rizzo on three straight pitches. The Bryzzo combination failing to even advance the Cubs spark plug to third was just the beginning of a frustrating afternoon with runners in scoring position.
Trend to Watch: There were not a lot of positives in this game for the Cubs offense, but Miguel Montero was one of them. The Cubs playoff roster remains the only compelling storyline of the 2016 season, and Montero is building an interesting case for his inclusion. The one-time starter has just four starts in the past two weeks, but has hit over .400 during that time. An increase in power is far more encouraging than the batting average. Montero’s ISO during this, albeit very small, sample size is well over .300.
John Lackey pitched another quality start since returning from the disabled list, and Carl Edwards Jr. was spotless in his one inning of work. Those are important trends, but perhaps more significant is Justin Grimm pitching a solid inning. Grimm has shown the form that made him a fearsome reliever for parts of two seasons again. Since June 28, Grimm has been charged with just one run, and not including today’s performance he has WHIP well below one during that stretch.
Coming Next: The series concludes on Sunday night with Jake Arrieta facing former Milwaukee Brewer Mike Fiers. The Cubs then travel for a three-game set against the arch-rival Cardinals. Kyle Hendricks will face big time Cardinals free agent prize Mike Leake in the opener. Jason Hammel has a shot to prove his second half woes are really a thing of the past against Jaime Garcia and Mike Montgomery will face Carlos Martinez in the finale.
Lead photo Troy Taormina—USA Today Sports