Even during Maddon’s September rest rotation for everyday position players, after a three game stretch with the offense held at bay, something had to give. Tonight, the floodgates opened once again. Though irksome command issues surfaced toward the end of Arrieta’s outing, he took care of business with a four-hit, three-run performance and (backed by typically stellar defense) became the first National League pitcher to rack 17 wins on the season. The bullpen finished the final three and two-thirds, and the nice lead the bats provided kept Houston’s back-to-back ninth inning jacks from stinging too much. In (mostly) stress-free fashion, the Cubs took the rubber match, dropping their magic number to a mere five games.
Top Play (WPA): Since the Cubs struck early and never looked back, the top play by win probability came in the first inning when Kris Bryant followed up a Dexter Fowler walk with a sharp double down the third base line. As the ball zipped into the left field corner, Fowler never let up and scored from first to take a quick 1-0 lead. (+.119)
The big innings were still to come, when the Cubs’ hitters piled on in the third and fourth to chase Mike Fiers from the mound early and go up nine runs to none. RBI contributions came from Jorge Soler’s 416-foot rocket to the left center balcony, singles by Baez and Almora Jr., and a two-run no doubter from Addison Russell (his 20th home run of the season).
Bottom Play (WPA): The Astros’ win probability remained minuscule throughout, with their best chance by WPA coming when Arrieta, after getting ahead in the count 1-2, walked the first batter he faced in George Springer (-.038). Fortunately, Springer quickly fell victim to a David Ross throw and Javy Baez tag at second to erase the threat on his stolen base attempt.
Key Moment: For five innings, it was smooth sailing with the only mistake coming in the form of a Jose Altuve blast (making the score 9-1 in the fourth). Then the top of the Astros’ order arrived in the sixth, just as the wheels began to fall off for Arrieta. A hit-by-pitch, two knocks, two wild pitches, and a walked batter later saw a couple runs added to the scoreboard and Arrieta pulled before securing the quality start (88 pitches on the night).
Justin Grimm took the mound in a tight spot, and he made it tighter by walking Yulieski Gurriel to load the bases with only one away. But two harmless fly outs subsequently ended the inning along with the Astros’ chances at a crooked number and a closer ballgame.
Trend to Watch: Given their imposing division lead and impressive sprint to ninety wins, the Cubs are currently enjoying a luxurious period of playoff preparation. Thus, October roster decision-making promises to be a drawn-out process with intrigue to spare. Watching the recent forty-man additions make their case with precious few September starts provides an added layer of interest as the Cubs close out the season. Tonight, for example, Albert Almora Jr. showed up with his bat and his glove, knocking in two runs and ending the Astros’ fifth with a flashy diving grab in right. His postseason chances may be quite slim, but he and the other bench hopefuls will be making every appearance count down the stretch—even when the games do not.
Looming roster questions may also give rise to potentially surprising pitcher-catcher combinations this month. Tonight David Ross got the uncommon call to catch Arrieta, continuing a trend of experimentation by separating him from preferred battery-mate Miguel Montero. With a full month to play with lineups without consequence, we can expect more of this from Maddon. But the playoff look will likely turn out to be closer to tradition. Pitching coach Chris Bosio recently responded to the question of whether a starting pitcher’s comfort level with certain catchers can justify carrying three into the postseason, or if hot bats take precedence. He didn’t mince words:
“Starting pitchers have carried us all year. It’s the reason we’re in this position. Offense is a luxury. We’re averaging the least amount of pitches per start in all of baseball. We’ve also thrown the least amount of pitches in our bullpen. So our formula is working, and I’d imagine we’ll probably stick to our guns and do the same thing.”
Coming Next: The Cubs head to St. Louis for their final regular season visit to Busch, with night games Monday and Tuesday and a matinee affair on getaway Wednesday. The Cardinals will be giving their best effort to surge forward in the tight NL wildcard race, while the Cubs seek to dwindle that magic number to zero. An outside chance would see them clinch the division this week in St. Louis, making a series sweep on the road that much sweeter. Of course, the much more likely outcome of clinching during the ten-game home stand that follows is a more than acceptable consolation to the eagerly-awaiting Wrigley Faithful. Should be fun.
Lead photo courtesy Troy Taormina—USA Today Sports