We all have questions about Jason Hammel. Why is he giving up so many home runs? How did he get so into Pearl Jam? What is the real story behind his first and second half splits? There are a bounty of questions surrounding the lanky Cubs right hander, but most importantly right now, at the forefront of everyone’s mind is one question: Should Hammel make the final cut for Joe Maddon’s playoff roster?
Maddon has made it extremely clear that he is not putting any thought into constructing a playoff roster at present time, but as the games wear on, everyone is on the hot seat. Of course, a strong and consistent body of work certainly gives one a baseline for whether or not a player should be considered for something as critical as a spot on a playoff roster, but recent performance can be very indicative as to what is to follow, which can be extremely important among the home of small sample size theater known as October.
That being said, right now, Hammel is just simply not making his case very strongly for a playoff roster spot.
Hammel’s last few outings have been ugly, and of course one’s mind is prone to being more heavily scarred by something such as Hammel giving up two home runs to Cardinals sluggers in his last outing than any other particular bad outing. Or say the outing in which Hammel surrendered five home runs to the pesky New York Mets. Those two outings alone are enough to make any Cubs fan proclaim their disdain for the pitcher who surrendered them. But these moments shouldn’t skew our perception of Hammel — in fact right before he surrendered the second home run of the evening to Brandon Moss during his last outing, Cubs play-by-play announcer Len Kasper had been praising Hammel for having such a successful campaign despite some of its blemishes.
The truth is, Hammel is having the best second half of his three seasons on the North side. Take a look:
| ERA | FIP | |
| 2014 | 4.31 | 5.00 |
| 2015 | 5.10 | 4.54 |
| 2016 | 3.84 | 4.46 |
However, the issue here is, as great as these results are for Hammel, who faced challenges in his second halves for the last two seasons (personal struggles with moving and family in 2014, as well as returning from a hamstring injury in 2015), this still leaves him with the worst marks on these three stats of anyone in the Cubs’ starting rotation. In isolation, he looks great. With context, not so great.
When you’re constructing a playoff roster, not every member of your club can make it. You’re looking for your best players, and this season Hammel’s marks just haven’t left him in a position to be one of the the best possible options to start important playoff games. Compare his numbers to the rest of the starting staff on the season:
| ERA | FIP | DRA | |
| Lester | 2.40 | 3.45 | 3.55 |
| Arrieta | 2.91 | 3.48 | 3.83 |
| Hendricks | 2.03 | 3.37 | 3.62 |
| Lackey | 3.35 | 3.72 | 3.71 |
| Hammel | 3.60 | 4.43 | 4.45 |
Not to mention that Hammel has given up the most home runs of the entire pitching staff at 23, and has pitched the least amount of innings of the staff while starting 28 games — the same number of games that Arrieta has started and just one shy of Lester. We know Hammel isn’t going the distance lately, and that is something that is absolutely essential to postseason play.
There is another interesting issue at play here, though. Hammel’s biggest weakness has been giving up home runs. It’s almost solely the way in which he surrenders runs lately. Hammel has even noted the struggle himself, “It seems like every time I give up a run, it leaves the yard,” Hammel said after the loss to the Cardinals this week at Busch Stadium. “I’d like to give up a double to drive in a run one time.”
What’s further, Hammel has shown significant struggles with giving up home runs on the road in 2016.
Of Hammel’s 23 home runs, all but five of them have come on the road. This season, Hammel has had a 1.77 ERA at home, and a 5.33 ERA on the road. His HR/FB rate is 17.6 percent on the road this season as opposed to just 7.5 percent at home.
In the postseason, every run scored and surrendered has extreme value due to the sheer sample size of games that are played as well as the lack of levity surrounding such games, especially the deeper you go into October. Nearly every event that occurs once the postseason begins is make or break. Home runs are definite. They aren’t the doubles that Hammel wishes he was giving up that pitchers then have the ability to strand on the base paths, or enlist the help of the defense behind them to make good on. There is no second chance with home runs, they are one and done, and in the postseason, praying that your starter isn’t going to go out there and futilely strike out seven while surrendering one or two home runs to lose a contest is not a solid approach, it’ gambling with high stakes and if anyone understands that it’s certainly Maddon.
Hammel may have had a good season, in fact he’s posting the third lowest ERA of his career in 2016, but the struggles Hammel is facing in 2016 are too loud to justify among a pitching staff that rank fourth in FIP and DRA as well as first in ERA among baseball.
“I guess the story of the tape for me this year is, when I’m bad, I’m really bad,” Hammel said in St. Louis “Overall the body of work is really good, so I’m not going to beat myself up.”
Hammel is right, when he’s good, he’s good, but when a pitcher’s only margin for error includes giving up longballs, he simply isn’t afforded much of a chance to redeem himself. Unfortunately, the “good start today, potentially awful start tomorrow” mentality is not one that goes over well in October. The best part of this scenario though? The Cubs don’t need to rely on Hammel, they are ready to deploy one of the strongest pitching staffs in the majors come October.
Lead photo courtesy Benny Sieu—USA Today Sports.
I’m starting a campaign against improper use of “sample size.” Please stop saying “sample size,” unless you’re actually taking a random sample of something. What you’re talking about isn’t a sample; it’s the actual number of events.