Player Profile: Carl Edwards Jr.

Position: RP, Closer

2016 Stats: 36 IP, 37.7 K%, 10.1 BB%, 3.75 ERA, 2.46 DRA, 1.0 WARP

Year Career in Review:

Did you watch the World Series documentary on FS1 the other day? For me, it was a chance to revisit the highs and lows of some very emotional games. Other than shaving a couple of years off my life (thanks Rajai!), I noticed some things I had missed the first time around.

Carl Edwards was one of those things. Did you notice? He was everywhere! For a rookie reliever to appear in three of the seven World Series games is pretty shocking. Especially when you see how little trust and faith both managers had for any pitchers not named Chapman, Miller, or Allen. After following the team so closely throughout the year, I kept waiting to see Hector Rondon or Pedro Strop emerge from the pen. Instead, there was the lanky right-hander with the devilish goatee time and time again.

After getting two quick outs in the 10th inning of Game 7, Edwards gave up a walk and an RBI single before being taken out of the game. If he could’ve just gotten that third out, the narrative around Edwards would’ve been very different this offseason—everyone would’ve noticed! It would’ve been him—not Mike Montgomery—that would go down in the history books.

That Joe Maddon trusted a rookie during such important/stressful times matters, and I’m here to talk about why that matters when you talk about the season Edwards had in 2016.

Edwards was once in the running to become that ever-elusive homegrown starting pitcher that would contribute at the big-league level (Hendricks doesn’t count, he came over in a trade), finally balancing out all the talent that the farm system has provided on the offensive side of the ball.

But his slight frame and some minor injuries got him into the bullpen, and that move got him to the big leagues faster than anyone expected. Now he’s proven he can get big leaguers out with his fastball/slider combo. But let’s dig into his numbers and what it is that makes him so special.

He started at Triple-A and was doing OK when he was summoned to the big leagues, where something clicked and he wound up posting much better numbers than he had in the minors.

And while those numbers are encouraging, his 2.87 FIP and the winning over of Joe Maddon’s trust are probably more important. The point is this: for a first long-term go-round of the Major Leagues, Edwards excelled—and that matters.

How did he excel? Well, there are some things we can point to. For one, his fastball has the second best spin rate in the game. Which bodes well for being able to continue his success at the highest level—odds are this is not a fluke. I don’t really care how he manages to create that spin; the important thing is he can do it over and over again.

Another thing that probably helps? He throws pretty hard. Sure, plenty of guys can throw harder than Edwards’ 95 mph, but Edwards gets that “frail” frame of his to extend to the plate in such a way that his perceived velocity on his fastball is 1.3mph higher than his actual, which puts him high up on another leaderboard. That means hitters know he can throw hard, but it just looks faster than it is. Wrap your head around that for a minute. No wonder Maddon likes him—he’s like some sort of wizard or magician. And we know Maddon likes magic.

There’s: one more thing I want to mention about Edwards because I lived in Boston when another slight-of-frame young pitcher was in his prime: Edwards has really long fingers. Like, freakishly long:

The other pitcher I was watching in Boston? Here are his infamous fingers:

I bring Pedro up because I love Pedro, but also because the fingers and the slight frame and the high velocity are things he shares with Edwards. I’m not trying to imply Edwards could be as good as Pedro…I’m just sayin’.

Still not impressed? But wait…there’s more! Let’s also talk about his ability to stay away from hard contact. While the Cubs had two pitchers near the top of the soft-contact leaderboard in Kyle Hendricks (25%, ranked #1) and Jake Arrieta (22%, ranked #4), Edwards was right at 25% himself. That’s pretty good and a lot of that probably has to do with him throwing most of his pitches in places hitters just can’t hit them very well:

Good luck hitting faster-than-you-expect 95 mph fastballs down and away!

Looking Ahead:

I’m lucky this piece is coming out today and we know who the closer for the 2017 Cubs is going to be. But before Wade Davis came aboard and before Joe Maddon tried to prop up Rondon’s shattered ego by saying he was the closer, there was serious chatter that Edwards might get a shot at racking up some saves.

Maddon was ready to at least consider the idea of relying on him to take over the most important slot in the pen. A slot that was so overworked during the World Series because no one else could be trusted.

That matters. It tells you something about Edwards that the numbers can’t describe, the velocity can’t reveal, and the wacky fingers can’t grasp.

Now we know that’s not going to happen, and luckily I’ve saved myself the embarrassment of pretending I can see the future and trying to convince you the Cubs might install a minimum-wage closer, while the likes of the Yankees are paying $17 million for theirs.

Instead, I’ll just leave you with this: Davis is signed for one more year. That gives Edwards another year under his belt to put all his tools to work. To get his control under control. To get better. To get ready.

If all goes according to plan (granted, right now it’s my plan), you’ll be seeing a lot more of the String Bean Slinger on the mound during the most stressful, anxious moments of the coming postseasons. And when you do, try to remember all the things I’ve mentioned in this article: his bump in perceived velocity, his ability to keep the ball low and away, his crazy-looking fingers, and his elite spin rate.

I hope it brings you some solace during those moments of intense psychological stress.

I’ve seen the future, and I know it won’t do anything for me…but maybe you’ll have better luck.

Lead photo courtesy David Kohl—USA Today Sports